Its a unique situation, that's for sure. I'm an aspiring PR guy so when I see opportunity like this I get excited. Elite is the real catalyst for this, it would offset the costs and Sony would be willing to cover Activision for quite a bit since it would encourage sales. Additional subscribers to Elite is pure profit for Activision, more subscribers don't equate to higher costs in their service, so its golden. Activision might concentrate on home consoles now but the opportunity to gather the handheld market, why wouldn't they. It would be great businesss for them to pull it off.

A price cut is the easy way out...and the most expensive.

According to this prediction chart it won't hit 3 million to August or September. I'm hoping the upcoming weeks will be more positive than my data, but its hard to justify without knowing more about upcoming software releases. Japan opting for Vitas instead of PSPs will help but when PSP software keeps releasing to top the charts I'm not sure when that will happen.

Anyone know the anticipated PSP software releases and when they will die off/not be so frequent?

Because this scenario requires them to practically build all the vita userbase, it's not their style or focus.Activision doesnt really invest on the mobile market with the cod franchise, they throw a bone but never meat. They wont simply negate all their fans by changing to mobile market with a exclsuive, i see a multiplatform as the best chance, and they will push elite in all consoles equally, i do not see them just giving more attention to the handheld version when the userbase isnt that big. Would be a excellent scenario for the vita, i agree, but only if  it were an entirely different activision that was ready to take high risks on a small market.

And the psp will stop getting software when japan when devs and gamers stop being happy with the quality of graphics they offer, then they might moveto Vita. I say 2 yers max.

Activision already have plans to release a CoD on the Vita, no one knows tge release date yet. Vita has full controls and online multiplayer capabilities with comparable to home console graphics. It is not like the mobile market we saw in years past. Releasing a handheld game is not negating thier fans, it wouldn't stop them from releasing titles on home consoles. Vita development is affordable and if a company can team up with Sony the risks are dramatically reduced. This wouldnt be about selling to an existing market, but creating one favorable for them. It is an investment. It would be amazing if they did what I'm suggesting, though unprecedented and therefore unlikely. The alternative is to release thier title and pay millions to advertise it hoping it would succeed. A move like i outlined sounds much better. It's not like the game would be free forever, just a month, and in reality it's not free unless you happen to be both an Elite subsriber and a Vita owner already. Others would have to pay $250 + $20 for a Vita and 4gb card and/or $60 for a year of Elite (is there really no monthly plan available?) I guess in a year there would be some dlc available for it, so they could say something like "over a $90 value" or some crap like people always do.

lucky if it sells 6-7 m by jan 2013

The thing is that, they would need to create this market and siding with Sony in their actual state wouldnt help them that much, Activision wont bother in investing on that when they have enough on consoles. And i said if they released an exclusiv CoD, a mutiplatform is the most likely and most of the success of your scenario revolves around CoD:V being an exclusive. Also if its free for a month it would only  really help the vita existing userrbase, i think we are overstimating how much CoD fans are willing to spend for their little game. Needing to spend $60 on a game first and then spending other 60 on dlc/elite after some time is something, but needing to spend $250+elite (maybe + 20 if game needs a save card), just to play the game is pushing them.
Your scenario is nice, pretty good for vita, but as you pointed too it's unlikely andim just poitng that. If the franchise were from EA or Capcom i could see them trying to expand itno the mobile market, but activision usually goe's for the safer route and are good at it saddly.

I thought Activision liked to bring their games to everything, and release a new addition to their series every year. I still think it would be safe since a team up and encouraging Elite would offset costs. 

There are some cool things they could do on the Vita that I would like to see in a CoD. When disarming a bomb, the camera zooms in to display the bomb and you have a code cracker that scrambles you numbers you have to input using the touchscreen on the number pad on the bomb. Make a mistake and BOOM. Or even show wires and you need to cut them in a certain order, idk. For mounted guns, stationary or on vehicles, would use the gyro to aim simulating actually holding a mounted gun. Cool stuff like that.

The CoD fanbase is so large, there has to be a decent amount of them that are interested in obtaining a handheld, I just hope companies can start attracting them over with software. PR stunts like this is just extra effort. Would be crazy if it happens. I've been right about stuff before. I even guess that Nintendo would call their next console the Wii U.

Yeah,  but not with the same standard of quality.That's why i doubt they will  put so much effort on an exclusive CoD for Vita.

@Deoz That's one of the major concern of the new title. Working on two Call of Duty games is a lot of work(Black Ops 2 for the consoles). We don't know what this game might be. Most likely it'll be a portable version of Black Ops 2 since it's easier for the developers to make. If it's a brand new game(not likely because Act. never made two Call of Duty titles at once and why create a brand new experince on a new system that hasn't sold highly yet?) they may have a another dev work separately on it.

Another dev is most likely. But I think it would be smart to release something more unique than a multiplat, won't sell that many when people opt to buy the console version, unless they are doing the buy our game get the Vita version free like some other companies have.