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Forums - Sales Discussion - Vita 2012 Predicted Sales Chartz 4.08 mil

Deoz on 17 April 2012
Chark said:
Deoz said:
Chark said:
@pokemmonbrawlvg

The PSP launched at $250 and that system did well. Take inflation into consideration and there shouldn't be so much concern over the price. Yes needing a memory card for game saves is an issue causing a $20 addition to the price of the Vita but it is not that significant. It should have been included. I do agree once better titles release consumer opinion will change.

The 3DS was overpriced at launch. The value to consumers was not the greatest and Nintendo's profit margins were much too high. It should have been $200 and today it is underpriced at $179. Nintendo made a terrible error with the 3DS and it's causing problems in the industry.

Smartphones are unique in price because they are subsidized through contracts and most people today view cell phones as a necessity so the increased monthly price of a smartphone is justified, but it is still expensive. Their games are also grossly inadequate currently and device upgrades are necessary to maintain relevance every year or two, very expensive. Same can be said of tablets, whose initial prices are very high compared to everything in the market while still being affected by device upgrades every year or two. But yet they all do incredibly well because they are favored as multi tool devices. The Vita is a multi tool but not to the extent as these devices and it's functionality has not permeated the knowledge of the market yet.

What kind of problems  is the pricecut doing according to you?

Well for starters it cut deeply into Nintendo's profit margins. Their stock and shareholders around the time is a good indication it caused Nintendo a lot of trouble. Despite having returned 3DS first year sales levels to DS, current sales could be better. Now Nintendo is in a situation where they most likely will not be able to cut their price any further, making their system vulnerable again to market lows. All that without the benefit of decent profit margins.

The 3DS price cut has now "established" a precedent that the Vita has to have a price cut as well. This precents a problem since it properly doesn't call for one until later in its lifecycle or when production costs are reduced. The perception of an immenent price cut could lead to consumer opting not to purchase the device. It is hard to quantify this factor but one can agree it is at least effecting the market in some way. Low sale of the 3DS and now low sales of the Vita paint a bad picture to investors, riles up ambitious analysts, and clouds acceptance of the consumer market.

So in total this whole debacle has lead to less money for console producers, game developers, and game industry investors. This is not good for gamers. I can't say what things would have been if the 3DS launched at $200 and avoided a price cut. I'd guess less turmoil and would have avoided the disturbingly low sales the 3DS had and the Vita is having now.

i can agree with that. But aslo is a competition so i dont expect any of both to make decision and wish the best to their rivals.



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SnowPrince on 17 April 2012
Chark said:
Pokemonbrawlvg said:
It'll be lucky to reach 3 million in June. April is going to be the worst month for it, nothing worth noticing this month. May has Mortal Kombat and Resistance in America and Europe, but as far as Japan goes it'll struggle there until mid-June.

Overall, sales will be slow reaching to 3 million as it's still edging towards 2 million right now. Reason I say this because it sold 73k this week and is at 1,836,206. Nothing for the next few weeks are going to increase it at all and will continue to fall or stable at 60k with luck. For it to sell 2 million this month, it has to sell 164k in the next three or four weeks worldwide.

Back to my 3 million, there are note worthy releases in Japan, but it won't help in the long run. It'll increase sales, but only for the month. America sees a somewhat similar fate with Gravity Rush(don't know if LittleBigPlanet or any other title will release in June as well).

According to this prediction chart it won't hit 3 million to August or September. I'm hoping the upcoming weeks will be more positive than my data, but its hard to justify without knowing more about upcoming software releases. Japan opting for Vitas instead of PSPs will help but when PSP software keeps releasing to top the charts I'm not sure when that will happen.

Anyone know the anticipated PSP software releases and when they will die off/not be so frequent?

The PSP won't die soon in japan that's for sure, there are many 3rd party Developpers who still work on it for the 2012-2013.. But i think software releases are becoming not so frequent due to 3DS powerfull sales in there.

I guess only a Price cut this summer + a Monster Hunter and FFX HD with exclusive content for vita.. will save its situation there 



Chark on 17 April 2012
SnowPrince said:
Chark said:
Pokemonbrawlvg said:
It'll be lucky to reach 3 million in June. April is going to be the worst month for it, nothing worth noticing this month. May has Mortal Kombat and Resistance in America and Europe, but as far as Japan goes it'll struggle there until mid-June.

Overall, sales will be slow reaching to 3 million as it's still edging towards 2 million right now. Reason I say this because it sold 73k this week and is at 1,836,206. Nothing for the next few weeks are going to increase it at all and will continue to fall or stable at 60k with luck. For it to sell 2 million this month, it has to sell 164k in the next three or four weeks worldwide.

Back to my 3 million, there are note worthy releases in Japan, but it won't help in the long run. It'll increase sales, but only for the month. America sees a somewhat similar fate with Gravity Rush(don't know if LittleBigPlanet or any other title will release in June as well).

According to this prediction chart it won't hit 3 million to August or September. I'm hoping the upcoming weeks will be more positive than my data, but its hard to justify without knowing more about upcoming software releases. Japan opting for Vitas instead of PSPs will help but when PSP software keeps releasing to top the charts I'm not sure when that will happen.

Anyone know the anticipated PSP software releases and when they will die off/not be so frequent?

The PSP won't die soon in japan that's for sure, there are many 3rd party Developpers who still work on it for the 2012-2013.. But i think software releases are becoming not so frequent due to 3DS powerfull sales in there.

I guess only a Price cut this summer + a Monster Hunter and FFX HD with exclusive content for vita.. will save its situation there 

Japan is probably the most deserving of a price cut. Their sales are the lowest and generally Japan can purchase as much or more handhelds as the more populated regions. Their Vitas are the most expensive unlike they are in Europe and especially the US. (Americans are so privledged yet ungrateful/ignorant of the situation) The US$ equivelent of a Japanese 3G Vita is $371. That's $71 more. I don't know what Sony's profit margin differences are in Japan, but on the consumer side of things, it needs to drop there first before the rest of the world.



Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(

Chark on 19 April 2012

Updated to April 14th

5,971,609 Vitas sold in 2012!

 

Vita Weekly Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

 

 

Vita Lifetime Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012



Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(

Pokemonbrawlvg on 23 April 2012

What's everybody prediction for this week? Under 60,000?



Read my original story on Fictionpress (Shinigami Twin): http://www.fictionpress.com/s/2996503/1/Shinigami-Twin 

As well as my other one (Hell's Punishment): http://www.fictionpress.com/s/3085054/1/Hell-s-Punishment

Nintendo Network ID: kingofe3

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Chark on 23 April 2012
Pokemonbrawlvg said:
What's everybody prediction for this week? Under 60,000?


Maybe, I think just over 60,000. It won't get a boost till May so it might end up going under 60k, then a bigger one in June with Gravity Rush and E3.



Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(

Chark on 26 April 2012

Another week another number.

5,920,974 Vitas sold in 2012



Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(

Chark on 26 April 2012
Chark said:
Pokemonbrawlvg said:
What's everybody prediction for this week? Under 60,000?


Maybe, I think just over 60,000. It won't get a boost till May so it might end up going under 60k, then a bigger one in June with Gravity Rush and E3.


Oh it went up. 66,677 not bad, looks like all this below 40,000 talk I've heard for so long might never come to be. Vita has software on the horizon, should keep sales up throughout summer.



Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(

Chark on 04 May 2012

Updated to April 28th


 5,731,411 Vitas sold in 2012!


 




Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(

Pokemonbrawlvg on 04 May 2012

My prediction was right? I said it wouldn't sell 2 million in April and thanks to the adjustments it became true. This was actually one thing I wish I was wrong about.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4516609



Read my original story on Fictionpress (Shinigami Twin): http://www.fictionpress.com/s/2996503/1/Shinigami-Twin 

As well as my other one (Hell's Punishment): http://www.fictionpress.com/s/3085054/1/Hell-s-Punishment

Nintendo Network ID: kingofe3