Number 2 is the only thing you should be worried about. E3 will tell us if Nintendo has abandoned their market.

I am just expecting Nintendo actually can make a Full game like this :) with a good development time, also I am expecting E3 2012 to erase all my doubts and fears, E3 2011 was.. just... weird and awkwardly paced, with them just showing "experiences", my hype was so low when the conferece was over :P. Hoping for the best, and maybe one or two leaks in this 2 months we have to wait!

Always nice to know when my posts are appreciated :)

It seems to me that the difference between the entertainement values of tablets and motion controllers (And the excitements following the announcements), especially to mainstream people, is a huge elephant in the room, that everybody ignores when discussing the WiiU.

Nintendo takes a lot of time in polishing with the zelda fracnhise. I cans ee them working on other Ips with less development time and still give a nice pretty game.

Your reasoning is the same thing I've heard before.  What it comes down to is if they have the right games and (to a lesser extent) price.

The power issue is not really as big of a deal as many think, no matter what the final specs are for WiiU.  Even if the games just look around the same as the competition to most people, there are enough Nintendo fans to make the launch a success (unless it's prohibitively expensive, which is highly unlikely).  If they have the right games (particularly ones that prove why the controller is neat) that make everyone want one, that's where they will easily amass a 10-12m+ install base before the 2013 holiday.  With Nintendo's strong IPs and that big of a lead, it would be difficult to imagine WiiU not doing well in the 8th gen, even if the competition does well too.  So E3's revelations of games and price will tell us this.  If we see even close to the E3 '06 hype level, we know it'll begin strong.

One point you are wrong about is to say that casual gamers are gone.  A casual gamer is nothing more than someone seeking a fun experience that's "in" right now.  If WiiU has the new games that everyone is talking about... and is the only place to get these games... that is where the casuals will bite.  Remember, WiiU won't be $300 forever.

Concerning NeXtBox and PS4 we know nothing yet, but I will say that if Nintendo continues to make games that the market wants, WiiU will do well no matter what the competition does.  But in addition to this, if it does indeed acquire the 3rd party games Nintendo says it will even after the new consoles hit (even if they don't look quite as good), then the competition may be the ones in trouble.

Aside from the already positive points with Nintendo's future console successor that has been stated you have to also understand the movement that Microsoft and Sony are heading. The banning of used games will DEFINITELY make an impact this generation. I know it is a rumor but the PS VITA says hello! It will definitely turn gamers off. Steam is kicking Xbox live/ PSN's ass.

It's hard to predict how it is going to performing without knowing what games Nintendo will release in the launch window.

What if they release New Super Mario World, Wii U Fit and Wii U Sports before the end of the year? With only 3 titles the Wii U can outsell both HD consoles combined during the holiday season.

However if they decide to release only games like Pikmin, 3D Mario and Metroid Other M even the Wii can outsell it.

I dont think  that even Wii U Fit or Wii U sports are gonna have that much impact as they had on the Wii, and even with both of those games they are not gonna outsell neither of the HD twins, let alone combined. But mario can make a difference.

don't be, Vita and PS4 will be just fine

Gasp! How could you say that?! You better be one of those people that make horrible predictions, Radish.