| Joelcool7 said: Metallicube, if its inferior powered to the 360 I will probably still purchase it but I will not be happy. The only reason I would buy it is for Nintendo's software. The hardware would absolutely have to retail at 199$ or cheaper 250$ would be a rip off. Nintendo would likely see some success the first winter but will have peaked by winter 2013 by winter 2014 by 2015 it will be off shelves or in bargain bins. I cannot think of any innovation Nintendo could make so revolutionary that they could successfully maintain a console weaker then 360 for five years. Three year life cycle is being optimistic I'd project 20-30 million units life time sales within those three years. Nintendo wouldn't make enough money to maintain profits and their market share would have flat lined. Even at the 2.5x power I suspect WiiU will have trouble in year four and by year five it will be dead. Nintendo is not designing hardware that could potentially go six to seven years if it was necessary. WiiU at current projections is simply a four year healthy life cycle. Nintendo will face all of the same problems that the original Wii did. Now if Nintendo follows my best case scenerio the WiiU will be half the power or 65-75% the power of NextBox. It needs to be able to receive downgraded ports and a Unreal4 game won't be easily downgraded to play on a WiiU at 2.5x the power. If WiiU is powerful enough to run downgraded ports of any game released on NextBox then it can survive five years strong of course in six years WiiU at 75% the power of NextBox will begin to flat line and not last seven or so years. Of course however Nintendo never goes over 5-6 years life cycles anymore so they don't need 6-7 year hardware. But they do need a console that will still be selling well four years after launch and still on shelves in the fifth year. Three or fewer years would be suicide! |
I never really believed that horsepower had much, if anything, to do with console longevity, and I don't think Wii U would be an exception to this. If it has quality games, the sales will follow. However, it's more a matter of the company's reputation. Nintendo releasing a console in 2012, that is WEAKER than a console released in 2005, would be pretty devistating to their image IMO, and would piss a lot of third parties off, as well as most gamers in the 13-35 year old range.. It would basically present a greedy image of Nintendo simply nickel and diming their consumer base and trying to make as much money as they can without caring about the actual games. That is a Nintendo I'm not sure I can support, at least not until the console is sold at a price that would match the hardware power.
While the Wii was underpowered, it at least had the innovative 3D motion controller going for it, and the fresh and exciting new types of games like Wii Fit. Also, it was a least slightly more powerful than the Xbox. Wii U on the other hand doesn't really offer that wow factor that would make the lack of horsepower irrelivent. I mean, their controller is basically an Ipad in some way shape or form. It's a neat little feature I guess, but it's nothing groundbreaking. In fact, I can't help but view it somewhat as a step back from the Wiimote, which is why I am far more stingy about the power of the hardware than I was for the Wii, and why it should be at least a somewhat noticeable leap from Wii, and for that matter, the current HD consoles.
Again, if Nintendo is seriously going to release hardware that is BEHIND the now ancient Xbox tech, that is pretty inexcusable, and I will most likely be exclusively an Xbox Next gamer, at least until Nintendo's machine hits $150. But anyway, I still don't think Nintendo would be that cheap. I would think it would cost next to nothing to use 7 year old tech, and even a small upgrade would probably be dirt cheap for Nintendo to manufacture. But who knows.. We heard all sorts of rumors from all over the spectrum so I don't know what to believe. I'm just gonna sit back, enjoy the show, and wait for E3.
