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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS3 flops in US (March) - what now?

jman8 said:
FishyJoe said:
jman8 said:
FishyJoe said:
If I'm a third party PS3 developer right now I'm scared. If a game like MotorStorm can't sell decently with no competition, how is any game outside of a select few going to sell in the face of heavy competition?

How is selling 200,000 not decent? That's over 10% of PS3 owners. That also doesn't include European sales where the game has been at the top of the charts. The game also sold pretty "decently" in Japan too. This is just as bad as the myth that PSP owners don't buy games when in fact the attach ratio is exactly the same as the DS (at least in the States).


You said it, it's 10% of PS3 owners which means that it didn't sell many systems if any. A good title will get people excited enough to buy at least some systems. This game was hyped by some to push PS3 sales to 300k. Instead PS3 sales went down 20% calculated on a weekly basis.


You never said anything about Motorstorm selling/or not selling systems in your post. All you said is that 3rd parties are probably scared b/c a good game didn't sell well. Well, the game did sell well, and good third party games will sell equally as well considering the number of PS3 owners are on the rise. The PS3 is basically selling at 360 pace from last year, which means that by Christmas they'll have sold probably about 8 million units. So why should 3rd parties be shitting their pants again? Oh yeah, this doesn't even bring up the fact that a third party could always port their PS3 game to the 360.


I don't think Motorstorm made that much money. Lets say it sells 750k WW. If 20% of retail price is reserved for development, a perfectly reasonable number, that means devlopment got $9 million from sales. The development probably cost that much which means they are close to breaking even. Nobody wants to just break even, they want significant returns on their investment. 



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So.......when is home coming out?  this month sometime?  what day?



FishyJoe said:
jman8 said:
FishyJoe said:
jman8 said:
FishyJoe said:
If I'm a third party PS3 developer right now I'm scared. If a game like MotorStorm can't sell decently with no competition, how is any game outside of a select few going to sell in the face of heavy competition?

How is selling 200,000 not decent? That's over 10% of PS3 owners. That also doesn't include European sales where the game has been at the top of the charts. The game also sold pretty "decently" in Japan too. This is just as bad as the myth that PSP owners don't buy games when in fact the attach ratio is exactly the same as the DS (at least in the States).


You said it, it's 10% of PS3 owners which means that it didn't sell many systems if any. A good title will get people excited enough to buy at least some systems. This game was hyped by some to push PS3 sales to 300k. Instead PS3 sales went down 20% calculated on a weekly basis.


You never said anything about Motorstorm selling/or not selling systems in your post. All you said is that 3rd parties are probably scared b/c a good game didn't sell well. Well, the game did sell well, and good third party games will sell equally as well considering the number of PS3 owners are on the rise. The PS3 is basically selling at 360 pace from last year, which means that by Christmas they'll have sold probably about 8 million units. So why should 3rd parties be shitting their pants again? Oh yeah, this doesn't even bring up the fact that a third party could always port their PS3 game to the 360.


I don't think Motorstorm made that much money. Lets say it sells 750k WW. If 20% of retail price is reserved for development, a perfectly reasonable number, that means devlopment got $9 million from sales. The development probably cost that much which means they are close to breaking even. Nobody wants to just break even, they want significant returns on their investment. 


While i agree that Motorstorm isn't going to lose sony money, there are much more costs to a game besides just development.  Marketing, and paying retailers comes to mind among other things.  Motorstorm didn't sell well in Japan, but it should sell a little better in Europe.  Sony is supposed to make up the money they lose on systems by selling games, which they aren't doing a good job of doing either.



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

First to Kwaad's insightful observation on Godfather:

The wii has many more casual gamers who bought the system just for Wii sports etc.  I think that the sales are perfectly respectable given the wii's market.

On topic:
I do agree that we "hardcore" gamers made a lot of hot air over Motorstorm, but to be honest it is not a big brand/franchise, and it's a dirt racer, and the demo in Bestbuy was fairly tepid (at least that I have played).  So these things taken together should inform us why the game isn't pushing systems out the door.  The people who really believe in the PS3 will have to fall back to the staples; wait for FF whatever, MG whatever, etc.

As for the other points you made (Home, and other announcements) while I do think those things are interesting I do not think they're system sellers (again I look to the big franchises for that role).  The system will most likely not pick up sales pace until the holidays, whether it will ever enjoy success like its predecessor is hard to tell (though I think there's a lot of reason to be concerned right now).  At any rate I suppose we could look at how the xbox did in this time period if we wanted to read the tea leaves (or it's older brother which I believe is performing slightly worse).

Full disclosure: I am an owner of Wii, PS2, Gamecube ... and I enjoy JRPGs and Nintendo franchises over sports and FPSs


FishyJoe said:
jman8 said:
FishyJoe said:
jman8 said:
FishyJoe said:
If I'm a third party PS3 developer right now I'm scared. If a game like MotorStorm can't sell decently with no competition, how is any game outside of a select few going to sell in the face of heavy competition?

How is selling 200,000 not decent? That's over 10% of PS3 owners. That also doesn't include European sales where the game has been at the top of the charts. The game also sold pretty "decently" in Japan too. This is just as bad as the myth that PSP owners don't buy games when in fact the attach ratio is exactly the same as the DS (at least in the States).


You said it, it's 10% of PS3 owners which means that it didn't sell many systems if any. A good title will get people excited enough to buy at least some systems. This game was hyped by some to push PS3 sales to 300k. Instead PS3 sales went down 20% calculated on a weekly basis.


You never said anything about Motorstorm selling/or not selling systems in your post. All you said is that 3rd parties are probably scared b/c a good game didn't sell well. Well, the game did sell well, and good third party games will sell equally as well considering the number of PS3 owners are on the rise. The PS3 is basically selling at 360 pace from last year, which means that by Christmas they'll have sold probably about 8 million units. So why should 3rd parties be shitting their pants again? Oh yeah, this doesn't even bring up the fact that a third party could always port their PS3 game to the 360.


I don't think Motorstorm made that much money. Lets say it sells 750k WW. If 20% of retail price is reserved for development, a perfectly reasonable number, that means devlopment got $9 million from sales. The development probably cost that much which means they are close to breaking even. Nobody wants to just break even, they want significant returns on their investment. 


Sony probably pockets more than 20% from retail sales. That's saying that 80% goes to the retailer itself which is ridiculously high. It's probably the game stores that pocket 20% from software sold. Anyway, it's too hard to figure out what the actual percentages are, so it's probably not worth arguing over. But keep in mind that development costs for Motorstorm are spread out across a number of other titles. The Motorstorm engine has already been confirmed to be the basis for the latest PS3 Wipeout game, and most likely there will be a Motorstorm2 within a couple of years that utilizes the same code. Expect to see game engines shared across many games in the years to come. The auto industry is the prime example for cutting huge development costs by sharing key components over many model lines.

 Edit: Is there a convenient way to just quote Fishy's last post rather than quote every exchange both of us have had? It looks kinda silly the way it is right now



My Top 5:

Shadow of the Colossus, Metal Gear Solid 3, Shenmue, Skies of Arcadia, Chrono Trigger

My 2 nex-gen systems: PS3 and Wii

Prediction Aug '08: We see the PSP2 released fall '09. Graphically, it's basically the same as the current system. UMD drive ditched and replaced by 4-8gb on board flash memory. Other upgrades: 2nd analog nub, touchscreen, blutooth, motion sensor. Design: Flip-style or slider. Size: Think Iphone. Cost: $199. Will be profitable on day 1.

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PS3 will rebound once the good games come out. Here and in Japan. Don't count it out just yet.



WiiFit will be 2008 #1 selling game in NORTH AMERICA!  
End of '08 Predictions: Wii - 48m X360 - 25m  PS3 - 19m
Wii monthly NA sales will top 400k every month in '08. *Jan sales ruined it. Grrrr!*
WiiFit will top 1m in sales in its first month of release in North America.
MGS4 will NOT be released in '08. *Darn it!* FF13 will NOT be released in '08.
Rockband Wii will top 600k in first month sales in North America.
WiiFit will pass the PS3 WW sales by Xmas '09.

I keep saying this but..I don't think that Wii will ever pass 360 in America.  It doesn't need to on a gloabal basis to sell the most hardware and software.  In recent weeks, Wii accounts for 2x+ the the combined sales of PS3 & 360 in Japan.  Wii's lead over 360 in Japan will soon become so large over 360 that it will offset the 360's lead in the USA - especially as that lead slowly shrinks year to year.

Sales rates are roughly 80k Wii, 50k Xbox 360 in non-holiday weeks in the USA.  With Wii supply constrained, and 360 getting major software throughout the year, there will be times when 360 outsells Wii in America this year.  If you look at it for the whole year (with holidays that is), I think the average Wii closing in on 360 rate would be about 8-12k per week, not the 30k it was in Jan-Feb and early March (before supply got tight).  At those rates Wii would gain about 400-600k on 360 per year in the USA.  But, I don't think that rate will hold up for 5 years +.  When the main 360 sku is in the $200's it will probably be seen as the system worth the most for your buck in the USA, while Wii will be a close second with it's crazy motion games, Nintendo games, 3rd party exclusives, and cheaper price.

PS3 will reach 3 or 4 million units at least in Japan, (I see it hitting 7 or 8 million) meaning that it can lag behind 360 in the USA like it is (say 15k per week slower rates than 360) because it sells roughly 10k more at least in Japan than 360, and will probably do better than 360 in Europe once the price drops. 

Overall, Sony's sales are lower than I expected but not that surprising.  I still think they will hit 8 million LTD by the end of the year.  Wii looks to be at least 15 milion LTD (i'm guessing 15 million to 20 million LTD), with around 18 million more likely to me.  360 can be at 14 to 16 million, depending on how many potential Halo and GTA owners already have the system.

 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

I'm not really seeing a lot of terrible news with these numbers.  Maybe I'm missing something here, but it's March.  Console sales typically slow down this time of year and into the summer.  While some fans have said 'this game will change everything' for their favorite system, I haven't been one of those people.

I think some have gotten too used to the amazing sales of the Nintendo DS and think that's the norm.  It's not.  The DS is in a league of its own right now and I think it's going to be there all year.  Everything else will look terrible in comparison.

What I think we can conclude from these numbers is that the transition from the PS2/Xbox/GC generation is going to take a lot longer than some people want it to.  And that plays strongly in Sony's favor since the PS2 is the only really active console of that bunch.  And when people buy a PS2, they're probably not buying another system in the near term.  This also hints that Nintendo may have been right about last generation's graphics being good enough for most users.  But it is kind of sad that the PS3 had its ass handed to it by the GBA.  Guess people aren't willing to get a second job to buy a PS3 after all.

And I'm not too surpirsed by the PS3 versus Wii Godfather sales.  Godfather is a game for gamers, not the majority of current Wii users.  Hopefully that will change as the Wii user base expands.



Numbers are like people. Torture them enough and you can get them to say anything you want.

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Kwaad said:
Wii sales dropping. Wii is a failure. PS2 to be the first console ever to take 2 generations on.

 That isn't actually all that accurate. Despite the drop the Wii is still outselling all of its home console competition! The 360 and PS3 both lag tens of thousands of units behind. The Wii also much like PS3 hasn't had much if any solid software releases. You have a delayd port from GameCube (SPM) leading Nintendo's Wii against a beautiful almost Real title like Gears or anything Sony has on PS3 to date!

PS3 sold 130,000 units that is very sad, The Wii wasted it and the Wii doesn't have anything that even looks realistic. The Wii is out gunned hardware power wise and out gunned software wise with PS3 getting more exclusive software then Wii. Yet Wii is kicking Sony's butt!

PS2 will not survive this generation, much like PlayStation did not survive the last generation!

Why because PS2 is only 100 or so dollars cheaper then Wii and third parties are likely going to begin ditching PS2 soon. Of course Wii might be a massive asset to PS2 developers will be able to port titles from PS2 to Wii with ease and Maybe even die down their Wii titles for PS2. PS2 will live on but expect a death by 2009! 



-JC7

"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer

 

enough about godfather, we're talking about a game selling 28k vs 23k.  Those are tiny numbers for both, and honestly i don't trust these new weekly charts enough to say that is completely true.  It wouldn't suprise me if it sold better on PS3 though because of the demographics, and i think even EA is expecting that.



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X