I keep saying this but..I don't think that Wii will ever pass 360 in America. It doesn't need to on a gloabal basis to sell the most hardware and software. In recent weeks, Wii accounts for 2x+ the the combined sales of PS3 & 360 in Japan. Wii's lead over 360 in Japan will soon become so large over 360 that it will offset the 360's lead in the USA - especially as that lead slowly shrinks year to year.
Sales rates are roughly 80k Wii, 50k Xbox 360 in non-holiday weeks in the USA. With Wii supply constrained, and 360 getting major software throughout the year, there will be times when 360 outsells Wii in America this year. If you look at it for the whole year (with holidays that is), I think the average Wii closing in on 360 rate would be about 8-12k per week, not the 30k it was in Jan-Feb and early March (before supply got tight). At those rates Wii would gain about 400-600k on 360 per year in the USA. But, I don't think that rate will hold up for 5 years +. When the main 360 sku is in the $200's it will probably be seen as the system worth the most for your buck in the USA, while Wii will be a close second with it's crazy motion games, Nintendo games, 3rd party exclusives, and cheaper price.
PS3 will reach 3 or 4 million units at least in Japan, (I see it hitting 7 or 8 million) meaning that it can lag behind 360 in the USA like it is (say 15k per week slower rates than 360) because it sells roughly 10k more at least in Japan than 360, and will probably do better than 360 in Europe once the price drops.
Overall, Sony's sales are lower than I expected but not that surprising. I still think they will hit 8 million LTD by the end of the year. Wii looks to be at least 15 milion LTD (i'm guessing 15 million to 20 million LTD), with around 18 million more likely to me. 360 can be at 14 to 16 million, depending on how many potential Halo and GTA owners already have the system.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
