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Forums - Sales Discussion - Was MS Wrong When They Claimed The #1 Spot For HW Sales WW?

 

Which Option Do You Think Is More Accurate?

The PS3/360 Is Over/Undertracked In EU. 135 23.48%
 
Ballmer Was Including A Few Jan Shipments. 67 11.65%
 
MS Stuffed The Channels. 246 42.78%
 
IT'S 2012! WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE! 123 21.39%
 
Total:571
Darth Tigris said:
thismeintiel said:
Darth Tigris said:

Exactly.  Like profitability and gearing up for the future of gaming.

While your comment was interesting, it really didn't directly answer my questions.  The first one was quite straightforward, but I honestly didn't expect anyone to know the facts about the 2nd one without some high level insight into how the retail channel is maintained for these products.  Thanks anyway.

Your question already has been answered numerous times, but you choose to ignore it.  It must have to do with that whole latching on to whatever supports your position. 

No, it hasn't.  All I've seen is twisted reasoning when all I want is a link to a credible source saying that the PS3 SOLD more than the 360 in 2011.  I didn't say one didn't exist or that it's not true or anything like that.  I just want to see it clearly stated somewhere credible, like say .... someone from SONY?  An analyst?  Anyone anywhere that has confirmed sales data so we can finally and definitively put this thing to rest.  No, no one is providing it, yet they are convinced it's true and keep restating it repeatedly.  What is that????

And nobody answered the overshipping versus over-ordering question clearly either, probably because the term "overshipping" demonizes the console manufacturers and not the retailers.  And who wants to demonize retailers when all we care about is Nintendo vs. Sony vs. Microsoft, right?  *rollseyessomuchgetsdizzyandpukes*

I clearly explained it using MS own shipment numbers from 2010 and 2011, you choose to not except the fact that MS's shipment numbers were inflated by extra units shipped out in Q1 2011.  Again, MS usually ships ~1.5 consoles in Q1.  The only time they deviated from this was in Q1 2011, when they shipped out 2.7 million units to make up for shortages in 2010.  And again, if they had gotten out those units in 2010, then they would have only shipped ~3.5-3.9 million in 2011.  It has nothing to do with whether or not MS overshipped (mostly because retailers overestimated demand) or not, which I think there was very little of.  VGC knows this, and that is why we are not going to get any large adjustments that put the 360 on top by any significant margin. 

Even Seece, who had a thread where he predicted that the 360 would outsell the PS3, conceded that the PS3 most likely won, though not by as much as VGC had it.  And in fact, VGC did adjust their numbers slightly, as the PS3 was ahead by ~630K and is now ahead by ~535K.



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VGC is in line with the other major trackers, and there is no official tracker for the areas outside NA, EU, JP and AUS.

VGC is as good as you're gonna get really.

I can understand (and do it myself) saying VGC is wrong when you have proof of it, but in this case all sales data for 2011 is in line so...



                            

thismeintiel said:
Darth Tigris said:
thismeintiel said:
Darth Tigris said:

Exactly.  Like profitability and gearing up for the future of gaming.

While your comment was interesting, it really didn't directly answer my questions.  The first one was quite straightforward, but I honestly didn't expect anyone to know the facts about the 2nd one without some high level insight into how the retail channel is maintained for these products.  Thanks anyway.

Your question already has been answered numerous times, but you choose to ignore it.  It must have to do with that whole latching on to whatever supports your position. 

No, it hasn't.  All I've seen is twisted reasoning when all I want is a link to a credible source saying that the PS3 SOLD more than the 360 in 2011.  I didn't say one didn't exist or that it's not true or anything like that.  I just want to see it clearly stated somewhere credible, like say .... someone from SONY?  An analyst?  Anyone anywhere that has confirmed sales data so we can finally and definitively put this thing to rest.  No, no one is providing it, yet they are convinced it's true and keep restating it repeatedly.  What is that????

And nobody answered the overshipping versus over-ordering question clearly either, probably because the term "overshipping" demonizes the console manufacturers and not the retailers.  And who wants to demonize retailers when all we care about is Nintendo vs. Sony vs. Microsoft, right?  *rollseyessomuchgetsdizzyandpukes*

I clearly explained it using MS own shipment numbers from 2010 and 2011, you choose to not except the fact that MS's shipment numbers were inflated by extra units shipped out in Q1 2011.  Again, MS usually ships ~1.5 consoles in Q1.  The only time they deviated from this was in Q1 2011, when they shipped out 2.7 million units to make up for shortages in 2010.  And again, if they had gotten out those units in 2010, then they would have only shipped ~3.5-3.9 million in 2011.  It has nothing to do with whether or not MS overshipped (mostly because retailers overestimated demand) or not, which I think there was very little of.  VGC knows this, and that is why we are not going to get any large adjustments that put the 360 on top by any significant margin. 

Even Seece, who had a thread where he predicted that the 360 would outsell the PS3, conceded that the PS3 most likely won, though not by as much as VGC had it.  And in fact, VGC did adjust their numbers slightly, as the PS3 was ahead by ~630K and is now ahead by ~535K.

So your answer is that the PS3 outselling the 360 for 2011 is based, not on any reported sell-through numbers, but shipping numbers.  Is it really hard to understand why that isn't convincing?  We're still talking nothing but shipments, which is in other ways being used to minimize what has been announced concerning the 360 being the top selling console ww for 2011 (based on SHIPPING numbers).  Shipping numbers being used to prove sell-through numbers.

The only factual conclusion that has been revealed is that there ISN'T any official source that clearly states who the sell-through leader was for 2011.  That's not an analytical opinion, just a fact.  

While I enjoy using VGC's numbers as an educated guess, I'll never be delusional about their inherent inaccuracy.  All polling done by samples are, but it's nice to at least have an estimate.  The consistent arguments, though, over differences that fall well into the admitted 5-10% error cushion, never cease to amaze me.  "Too close to call" just isn't good enough for some.  



pezus said:
^Darth, you're clutching at straws...let's leave it at that.

I dont see anything wrong Darth posts, so why leave it at that?



pezus said:
Darth Tigris said:
pezus said:
Darth Tigris said:

............ You're calling someone spot on that basically said that, by the end of 2016, the 360 would have sold less than 47 million consoles.  Even if he was close with the PS3, that 360 prediction brings it all crashing down.  

You must be fucking kidding me. I said he was spot on UNTIL 2012, that is this part:

I anticipate around 10 million sales per year on average, until the release of a "PSThree", then I expect the PS3 to sell around 15 million on average.

So 2007 + 2008, about 20 million, I anticipate a slimline PS3 to launch somewhere in 2009. By the end of 2012 about 80 million sales.

You're just trying to create trouble, leave it be

You must be confusing me with others, because I'm not a trouble maker.  I get what you're trying to say, but I think ignoring his 360 prediction is kinda crazy.  It may have only been mentioned in the context of his 2016 prediction (which, though crazy, COULD mathmatically still happen for the PS3), but he obviously is so far off with it that it just defies all sense.  It's like believing a psychic because he got 1 out of 563 predictions right.

Please do me this one favor:  say that the man had crazy wrong predictions for the 360.  Acknowledge it so we can confirm that you're sane like the rest of us.

I didn't say anything about "believing in him". I said his predictions were spot on, until that horrible 2016 prediction. I thought I didn't even have to mention his 360 prediction, any sane person could see for themselves that it was bad.

Ok, "believing in" wasn't the best phrase to use.  I should've said "commending him for".  Sorry about that.

But THANK YOU for proving that you are sane like the rest of us.  *Whew*  I was really concerned there for a moment that you were one of those types that just likes to be difficult just for the enjoyment of it.  Calling him out for his good prediction yet acknowledging his completely insane ones presents you as a balanced poster.  That was the whole point of this back and forth between me and you.  I just wanted to know if you could be that and, even though it took longer than I thought it would, it eventually came out.  Cool.



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Darth Tigris said:

So your answer is that the PS3 outselling the 360 for 2011 is based, not on any reported sell-through numbers, but shipping numbers.  Is it really hard to understand why that isn't convincing?  We're still talking nothing but shipments, which is in other ways being used to minimize what has been announced concerning the 360 being the top selling console ww for 2011 (based on SHIPPING numbers).  Shipping numbers being used to prove sell-through numbers.

The only factual conclusion that has been revealed is that there ISN'T any official source that clearly states who the sell-through leader was for 2011.  That's not an analytical opinion, just a fact.  

While I enjoy using VGC's numbers as an educated guess, I'll never be delusional about their inherent inaccuracy.  All polling done by samples are, but it's nice to at least have an estimate.  The consistent arguments, though, over differences that fall well into the admitted 5-10% error cushion, never cease to amaze me.  "Too close to call" just isn't good enough for some.  

nevermind. looks like i was to late for this one, but i still agree with darth



Darth Tigris said:
thismeintiel said:
Darth Tigris said:
thismeintiel said:
Darth Tigris said:

Exactly.  Like profitability and gearing up for the future of gaming.

While your comment was interesting, it really didn't directly answer my questions.  The first one was quite straightforward, but I honestly didn't expect anyone to know the facts about the 2nd one without some high level insight into how the retail channel is maintained for these products.  Thanks anyway.

Your question already has been answered numerous times, but you choose to ignore it.  It must have to do with that whole latching on to whatever supports your position. 

No, it hasn't.  All I've seen is twisted reasoning when all I want is a link to a credible source saying that the PS3 SOLD more than the 360 in 2011.  I didn't say one didn't exist or that it's not true or anything like that.  I just want to see it clearly stated somewhere credible, like say .... someone from SONY?  An analyst?  Anyone anywhere that has confirmed sales data so we can finally and definitively put this thing to rest.  No, no one is providing it, yet they are convinced it's true and keep restating it repeatedly.  What is that????

And nobody answered the overshipping versus over-ordering question clearly either, probably because the term "overshipping" demonizes the console manufacturers and not the retailers.  And who wants to demonize retailers when all we care about is Nintendo vs. Sony vs. Microsoft, right?  *rollseyessomuchgetsdizzyandpukes*

I clearly explained it using MS own shipment numbers from 2010 and 2011, you choose to not except the fact that MS's shipment numbers were inflated by extra units shipped out in Q1 2011.  Again, MS usually ships ~1.5 consoles in Q1.  The only time they deviated from this was in Q1 2011, when they shipped out 2.7 million units to make up for shortages in 2010.  And again, if they had gotten out those units in 2010, then they would have only shipped ~3.5-3.9 million in 2011.  It has nothing to do with whether or not MS overshipped (mostly because retailers overestimated demand) or not, which I think there was very little of.  VGC knows this, and that is why we are not going to get any large adjustments that put the 360 on top by any significant margin. 

Even Seece, who had a thread where he predicted that the 360 would outsell the PS3, conceded that the PS3 most likely won, though not by as much as VGC had it.  And in fact, VGC did adjust their numbers slightly, as the PS3 was ahead by ~630K and is now ahead by ~535K.

So your answer is that the PS3 outselling the 360 for 2011 is based, not on any reported sell-through numbers, but shipping numbers.  Is it really hard to understand why that isn't convincing?  We're still talking nothing but shipments, which is in other ways being used to minimize what has been announced concerning the 360 being the top selling console ww for 2011 (based on SHIPPING numbers).  Shipping numbers being used to prove sell-through numbers.

The only factual conclusion that has been revealed is that there ISN'T any official source that clearly states who the sell-through leader was for 2011.  That's not an analytical opinion, just a fact.  

While I enjoy using VGC's numbers as an educated guess, I'll never be delusional about their inherent inaccuracy.  All polling done by samples are, but it's nice to at least have an estimate.  The consistent arguments, though, over differences that fall well into the admitted 5-10% error cushion, never cease to amaze me.  "Too close to call" just isn't good enough for some.  

My explanation makes perfect sense, though.  This is why Seece, a big 360 supporter who had a thread predicting the 360 would be on top, concluded that the PS3 most likely won.  And why you don't see him in the other threads trying to agrue that the 360 won.  That's also why VGC hasn't made some huge adjustment to put the 360 on top. 

I just find it funny that you want SELL THROUGH numbers, yet your whole notion about who won, as well as others who support you, comes from your conclusions about the SHIPMENT data MS gave out.  Of course, you don't even take into account the inflated shipment numbers due to Q1 2011 shipments.  But why would you listen to reason, it doesn't support your side. 

As for the bold, LOL!  I highly doubt that if VGC had the 360 ~530K ahead of the PS3 you'd be going into threads telling other 360 supporters, "Hey guys, this is just too close to call."  Or talking about VGC "inaccuracies."  Nope, you'd be in there fist bumping with the other guys and praising MS for outselling the PS3.



pezus said:
Kynes said:
pezus said:
kowenicki said:
SOLIDSNAKE08 said:
sales2099 said:
pezus said:
It's funny to see people claim that only PS3 fans care about this when we have at least 3 360 fans arguing against ONE PS3 fan for many many pages. Irony at its best

Please. It is well known that the majority of forum gamers are PS3 bias. Most of whom have a "closet bias", pretending they are all around gamers. 

But in the end, PS3 "may" have sold more, but 360 won 2011 on all "official" accounts. 


well what can you do. most sites are playstation biased simply because theres more playstation fans than there are xbox. the forums here have more diehard xbox fans though. most threads are littered with that seece and koweniki guy. the most obvious sony haters around. and its not just playstation, they literally hate anything sony. hell, just go back a page and read the first post and you'll see what i mean.

Whereas you are a really balanced and considered poster... with no affiliation whatsoever.

I have probably owned more Sony tech than you will ever own... thats because I was buying tech for years when Sony still dominated most areas.  This forum has far more Sony fans than 360 fans... there really isnt any comparison.

I'd say MS fans are catching up fast now with many of the most recognisable "PS fans" leaving or posting less and more MS fans coming in. I don't think the ratio is as big as it once was, although Sony fans are most definitely more numerous.

Have you seen any pool results recently?

Yes, most recently the Vita one. Poll results mean nothing though, because anyone can vote in polls but only registered users can post and what I'm saying is that MS fans have become more prominent, probably as a result of great sales.

The way I see it, since this gen has entered its 6th year and a substantial number of people own both (or all) consoles, most gamers have matured a little and the console wars are not as important as they once were. That means all sides have simmered down a little. Given that early PS3 fans were among the most vocal (and irritating) ones around the forums, this new reality gives the impression that the SON¥ camp has quited down and the X360 camp has made more of a presence.



greenmedic88 said:
Carl2291 said:
Can't we use VGChartz as a reliable source for WW numbers?

We are, afaik, inline with NPD, Gfk and Media Create.

So I ask, whats wrong with using VGChartz?

Not when those numbers contradict someone's hard argued points of view presented as fact, naturally.

When they support personal POVs, then oh yeah; they can immediately and unquestionably be accepted and used for the sake of a petty argument.

The nice thing about VGC numbers is that they are flexible and subject to correction as more information becomes available. It's not like the numbers are ever irretractable. But for the sake of arguments specifically on VGC, why not use their numbers other than because they conflict with one's argument? If that's the case, deal with it and hope for more corrections if it's really THAT important to you. 

Experience says the little man can't deal. 

The problem is, as I understand it, that VGC uses hard data provided by services like NPD to adjust their own numbers. Thing is, this two last NPD reports (Dec '11/ Jan '12) have been found questionable by several analysts and even VGC has decided to postpone said adjustments until they get a hold of what the hell's going on. I myself have no idea, by how many units the PS3 won 2011, if in fact they did, considering sold-through only.



reviniente said:
greenmedic88 said:
Carl2291 said:
Can't we use VGChartz as a reliable source for WW numbers?

We are, afaik, inline with NPD, Gfk and Media Create.

So I ask, whats wrong with using VGChartz?

Not when those numbers contradict someone's hard argued points of view presented as fact, naturally.

When they support personal POVs, then oh yeah; they can immediately and unquestionably be accepted and used for the sake of a petty argument.

The nice thing about VGC numbers is that they are flexible and subject to correction as more information becomes available. It's not like the numbers are ever irretractable. But for the sake of arguments specifically on VGC, why not use their numbers other than because they conflict with one's argument? If that's the case, deal with it and hope for more corrections if it's really THAT important to you. 

Experience says the little man can't deal. 

The problem is, as I understand it, that VGC uses hard data provided by services like NPD to adjust their own numbers. Thing is, this two last NPD reports (Dec '11/ Jan '12) have been found questionable by several analysts and even VGC has decided to postpone said adjustments until they get a hold of what the hell's going on. I myself have no idea, by how many units the PS3 won 2011, if in fact they did, considering sold-through only.

Why throw in Dec '11?  I don't recall any analyst questioning those numbers and VGC has already adjusted to those numbers.  It's Jan '12 that people are questioning.  Though really, I find it quite ridiculous.  People have been using NPD for years, now all of a sudden, they can't be trusted?  People just need to face it that this gen is coming to a close.  The Big 3 know this, that's why they are getting ready for the next gen.