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Forums - Sales Discussion - Was MS Wrong When They Claimed The #1 Spot For HW Sales WW?

 

Which Option Do You Think Is More Accurate?

The PS3/360 Is Over/Undertracked In EU. 135 23.48%
 
Ballmer Was Including A Few Jan Shipments. 67 11.65%
 
MS Stuffed The Channels. 246 42.78%
 
IT'S 2012! WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE! 123 21.39%
 
Total:571
reviniente on 13 February 2012
thismeintiel said:
reviniente said:
greenmedic88 said:
Carl2291 said:
Can't we use VGChartz as a reliable source for WW numbers?

We are, afaik, inline with NPD, Gfk and Media Create.

So I ask, whats wrong with using VGChartz?

Not when those numbers contradict someone's hard argued points of view presented as fact, naturally.

When they support personal POVs, then oh yeah; they can immediately and unquestionably be accepted and used for the sake of a petty argument.

The nice thing about VGC numbers is that they are flexible and subject to correction as more information becomes available. It's not like the numbers are ever irretractable. But for the sake of arguments specifically on VGC, why not use their numbers other than because they conflict with one's argument? If that's the case, deal with it and hope for more corrections if it's really THAT important to you. 

Experience says the little man can't deal. 

The problem is, as I understand it, that VGC uses hard data provided by services like NPD to adjust their own numbers. Thing is, this two last NPD reports (Dec '11/ Jan '12) have been found questionable by several analysts and even VGC has decided to postpone said adjustments until they get a hold of what the hell's going on. I myself have no idea, by how many units the PS3 won 2011, if in fact they did, considering sold-through only.

Why throw in Dec '11?  I don't recall any analyst questioning those numbers and VGC has already adjusted to those numbers.  It's Jan '12 that people are questioning.  Though really, I find it quite ridiculous.  People have been using NPD for years, now all of a sudden, they can't be trusted?  People just need to face it that this gen is coming to a close.  The Big 3 know this, that's why they are getting ready for the next gen.

You don't find a December that's below November, and by a substantial margin at that, with no new hardware, rather odd? How 'bout software that, considering the install base, goes down in numbers and revenue to '04 levels? Doubting this info might not be that ridiculous if you ask me.



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thismeintiel on 13 February 2012
reviniente said:
thismeintiel said:
reviniente said:
greenmedic88 said:
Carl2291 said:
Can't we use VGChartz as a reliable source for WW numbers?

We are, afaik, inline with NPD, Gfk and Media Create.

So I ask, whats wrong with using VGChartz?

Not when those numbers contradict someone's hard argued points of view presented as fact, naturally.

When they support personal POVs, then oh yeah; they can immediately and unquestionably be accepted and used for the sake of a petty argument.

The nice thing about VGC numbers is that they are flexible and subject to correction as more information becomes available. It's not like the numbers are ever irretractable. But for the sake of arguments specifically on VGC, why not use their numbers other than because they conflict with one's argument? If that's the case, deal with it and hope for more corrections if it's really THAT important to you. 

Experience says the little man can't deal. 

The problem is, as I understand it, that VGC uses hard data provided by services like NPD to adjust their own numbers. Thing is, this two last NPD reports (Dec '11/ Jan '12) have been found questionable by several analysts and even VGC has decided to postpone said adjustments until they get a hold of what the hell's going on. I myself have no idea, by how many units the PS3 won 2011, if in fact they did, considering sold-through only.

Why throw in Dec '11?  I don't recall any analyst questioning those numbers and VGC has already adjusted to those numbers.  It's Jan '12 that people are questioning.  Though really, I find it quite ridiculous.  People have been using NPD for years, now all of a sudden, they can't be trusted?  People just need to face it that this gen is coming to a close.  The Big 3 know this, that's why they are getting ready for the next gen.

You don't find a December that's below November, and by a substantial margin at that, with no new hardware, rather odd? How 'bout software that, considering the install base, goes down in numbers and revenue to '04 levels? Doubting this info might not be that ridiculous if you ask me.

Black Friday went on longer in 2011 than it has in the past.  At some stores it started at 10 PM Thurs, and most others only 2 hrs later at 12 AM, when it normally starts early Fri morning (~5 or 6 AM).  This meant that A LOT more people came out for Black Friday, when many would have normally skipped out on it.  This caused more people to move there Holiday shopping to November, when usually they do it during December.  It was something I actually predicted, so it didn't really surprise me too much. 

As for the 2004 thing, that's a ridiculous comparison to begin with.  In January 2004, the PS2 was only about to turn 4 years old, while the Xbox and Gamecube were turning 3.  This year, the 360 will be turning 7, while the PS3 and Wii will be turning 6, so sales are naturally going to be dropping now.  Plus, there weren't any big titles in January to push SW sales any higher. 



 

Darth Tigris on 14 February 2012
thismeintiel said:
Darth Tigris said:
thismeintiel said:
Darth Tigris said:
thismeintiel said:
Darth Tigris said:

Exactly.  Like profitability and gearing up for the future of gaming.

While your comment was interesting, it really didn't directly answer my questions.  The first one was quite straightforward, but I honestly didn't expect anyone to know the facts about the 2nd one without some high level insight into how the retail channel is maintained for these products.  Thanks anyway.

Your question already has been answered numerous times, but you choose to ignore it.  It must have to do with that whole latching on to whatever supports your position. 

No, it hasn't.  All I've seen is twisted reasoning when all I want is a link to a credible source saying that the PS3 SOLD more than the 360 in 2011.  I didn't say one didn't exist or that it's not true or anything like that.  I just want to see it clearly stated somewhere credible, like say .... someone from SONY?  An analyst?  Anyone anywhere that has confirmed sales data so we can finally and definitively put this thing to rest.  No, no one is providing it, yet they are convinced it's true and keep restating it repeatedly.  What is that????

And nobody answered the overshipping versus over-ordering question clearly either, probably because the term "overshipping" demonizes the console manufacturers and not the retailers.  And who wants to demonize retailers when all we care about is Nintendo vs. Sony vs. Microsoft, right?  *rollseyessomuchgetsdizzyandpukes*

I clearly explained it using MS own shipment numbers from 2010 and 2011, you choose to not except the fact that MS's shipment numbers were inflated by extra units shipped out in Q1 2011.  Again, MS usually ships ~1.5 consoles in Q1.  The only time they deviated from this was in Q1 2011, when they shipped out 2.7 million units to make up for shortages in 2010.  And again, if they had gotten out those units in 2010, then they would have only shipped ~3.5-3.9 million in 2011.  It has nothing to do with whether or not MS overshipped (mostly because retailers overestimated demand) or not, which I think there was very little of.  VGC knows this, and that is why we are not going to get any large adjustments that put the 360 on top by any significant margin. 

Even Seece, who had a thread where he predicted that the 360 would outsell the PS3, conceded that the PS3 most likely won, though not by as much as VGC had it.  And in fact, VGC did adjust their numbers slightly, as the PS3 was ahead by ~630K and is now ahead by ~535K.

So your answer is that the PS3 outselling the 360 for 2011 is based, not on any reported sell-through numbers, but shipping numbers.  Is it really hard to understand why that isn't convincing?  We're still talking nothing but shipments, which is in other ways being used to minimize what has been announced concerning the 360 being the top selling console ww for 2011 (based on SHIPPING numbers).  Shipping numbers being used to prove sell-through numbers.

The only factual conclusion that has been revealed is that there ISN'T any official source that clearly states who the sell-through leader was for 2011.  That's not an analytical opinion, just a fact.  

While I enjoy using VGC's numbers as an educated guess, I'll never be delusional about their inherent inaccuracy.  All polling done by samples are, but it's nice to at least have an estimate.  The consistent arguments, though, over differences that fall well into the admitted 5-10% error cushion, never cease to amaze me.  "Too close to call" just isn't good enough for some.  

My explanation makes perfect sense, though.  This is why Seece, a big 360 supporter who had a thread predicting the 360 would be on top, concluded that the PS3 most likely won.  And why you don't see him in the other threads trying to agrue that the 360 won.  That's also why VGC hasn't made some huge adjustment to put the 360 on top. 

I just find it funny that you want SELL THROUGH numbers, yet your whole notion about who won, as well as others who support you, comes from your conclusions about the SHIPMENT data MS gave out.  Of course, you don't even take into account the inflated shipment numbers due to Q1 2011 shipments.  But why would you listen to reason, it doesn't support your side. 

As for the bold, LOL!  I highly doubt that if VGC had the 360 ~530K ahead of the PS3 you'd be going into threads telling other 360 supporters, "Hey guys, this is just too close to call."  Or talking about VGC "inaccuracies."  Nope, you'd be in there fist bumping with the other guys and praising MS for outselling the PS3.

Makes perfect sense for a theory, but isn't a definitive statement on what console sold the most in 2011.  You seem like a relatively intelligent person.  How you cannot see that is amazing.

For the record, please do not lump me with some initiative in this community.  While people may have opinions and preferences, in a discussion like this they all fall to mighty power of the FACTS.  That's the only side that I'm committed to.  

As for who "won", let's be serious here:  "winning" definitely only works when what "winning" actually entails is defined.  Sales?  Profits?  Awards?  Twitter followers?  It's a shaky concept as discussed here, so that's why you haven't read me talking about it.  Again, I only care about the facts, not who they favor.  Hopefully now you understand me a bit better.



reviniente on 14 February 2012
thismeintiel said:
reviniente said:
thismeintiel said:
reviniente said:
greenmedic88 said:
Carl2291 said:
Can't we use VGChartz as a reliable source for WW numbers?

We are, afaik, inline with NPD, Gfk and Media Create.

So I ask, whats wrong with using VGChartz?

Not when those numbers contradict someone's hard argued points of view presented as fact, naturally.

When they support personal POVs, then oh yeah; they can immediately and unquestionably be accepted and used for the sake of a petty argument.

The nice thing about VGC numbers is that they are flexible and subject to correction as more information becomes available. It's not like the numbers are ever irretractable. But for the sake of arguments specifically on VGC, why not use their numbers other than because they conflict with one's argument? If that's the case, deal with it and hope for more corrections if it's really THAT important to you. 

Experience says the little man can't deal. 

The problem is, as I understand it, that VGC uses hard data provided by services like NPD to adjust their own numbers. Thing is, this two last NPD reports (Dec '11/ Jan '12) have been found questionable by several analysts and even VGC has decided to postpone said adjustments until they get a hold of what the hell's going on. I myself have no idea, by how many units the PS3 won 2011, if in fact they did, considering sold-through only.

Why throw in Dec '11?  I don't recall any analyst questioning those numbers and VGC has already adjusted to those numbers.  It's Jan '12 that people are questioning.  Though really, I find it quite ridiculous.  People have been using NPD for years, now all of a sudden, they can't be trusted?  People just need to face it that this gen is coming to a close.  The Big 3 know this, that's why they are getting ready for the next gen.

You don't find a December that's below November, and by a substantial margin at that, with no new hardware, rather odd? How 'bout software that, considering the install base, goes down in numbers and revenue to '04 levels? Doubting this info might not be that ridiculous if you ask me.

Black Friday went on longer in 2011 than it has in the past.  At some stores it started at 10 PM Thurs, and most others only 2 hrs later at 12 AM, when it normally starts early Fri morning (~5 or 6 AM).  This meant that A LOT more people came out for Black Friday, when many would have normally skipped out on it.  This caused more people to move there Holiday shopping to November, when usually they do it during December.  It was something I actually predicted, so it didn't really surprise me too much. 

As for the 2004 thing, that's a ridiculous comparison to begin with.  In January 2004, the PS2 was only about to turn 4 years old, while the Xbox and Gamecube were turning 3.  This year, the 360 will be turning 7, while the PS3 and Wii will be turning 6, so sales are naturally going to be dropping now.  Plus, there weren't any big titles in January to push SW sales any higher. 

Hmmm... Interesting. Do you expect, say February through May to be just as depressed YoY?



Alby_da_Wolf on 14 February 2012

 

It's not like Piggmer never was wrong before...



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Squilliam on 14 February 2012

#1: Microsoft sold more Xbox 360 consoles than Sony sold PS3s.

#2: Retailers likely sold more Sony PS3 consoles than Microsoft Xbox 360s.

Technically #1 is more correct, however usually #1/#2 both go the same way so most of the time they are interchangeable. 

It was kind of obvious for Microsoft to make that statement as they were likely shipping straight to retail in 2010 due to supply constraints and they needed to catch up on stocking so some of what ought to have been 2010 shipments were 2011 shipments. This is why they were able to claim they sold the most and make it the truth.

 

 



Tease.

Kynes on 14 February 2012
Squilliam said:

#1: Microsoft sold more Xbox 360 consoles than Sony sold PS3s.

#2: Retailers likely sold more Sony PS3 consoles than Microsoft Xbox 360s.

Technically #1 is more correct, however usually #1/#2 both go the same way so most of the time they are interchangeable. 

It was kind of obvious for Microsoft to make that statement as they were likely shipping straight to retail in 2010 due to supply constraints and they needed to catch up on stocking so some of what ought to have been 2010 shipments were 2011 shipments. This is why they were able to claim they sold the most and make it the truth.

 

 

This is the most plausible explanation. It don't really matters who sold more, it's a tiny difference that only fuels fanboy wars.



thismeintiel on 14 February 2012
reviniente said:
thismeintiel said:
reviniente said:
thismeintiel said:
reviniente said:

The problem is, as I understand it, that VGC uses hard data provided by services like NPD to adjust their own numbers. Thing is, this two last NPD reports (Dec '11/ Jan '12) have been found questionable by several analysts and even VGC has decided to postpone said adjustments until they get a hold of what the hell's going on. I myself have no idea, by how many units the PS3 won 2011, if in fact they did, considering sold-through only.

Why throw in Dec '11?  I don't recall any analyst questioning those numbers and VGC has already adjusted to those numbers.  It's Jan '12 that people are questioning.  Though really, I find it quite ridiculous.  People have been using NPD for years, now all of a sudden, they can't be trusted?  People just need to face it that this gen is coming to a close.  The Big 3 know this, that's why they are getting ready for the next gen.

You don't find a December that's below November, and by a substantial margin at that, with no new hardware, rather odd? How 'bout software that, considering the install base, goes down in numbers and revenue to '04 levels? Doubting this info might not be that ridiculous if you ask me.

Black Friday went on longer in 2011 than it has in the past.  At some stores it started at 10 PM Thurs, and most others only 2 hrs later at 12 AM, when it normally starts early Fri morning (~5 or 6 AM).  This meant that A LOT more people came out for Black Friday, when many would have normally skipped out on it.  This caused more people to move there Holiday shopping to November, when usually they do it during December.  It was something I actually predicted, so it didn't really surprise me too much. 

As for the 2004 thing, that's a ridiculous comparison to begin with.  In January 2004, the PS2 was only about to turn 4 years old, while the Xbox and Gamecube were turning 3.  This year, the 360 will be turning 7, while the PS3 and Wii will be turning 6, so sales are naturally going to be dropping now.  Plus, there weren't any big titles in January to push SW sales any higher. 

Hmmm... Interesting. Do you expect, say February through May to be just as depressed YoY?

If January is anything to go by, probably.  Though, they may not be as bad YOY, since people will be getting back tax refunds in the US and may be more likely to do some console shopping.  Of course, MS may also finally do a price cut to help boost sales.  I don't see its affect lasting too long, though, as the 360 already has a $199 SKU.  A PS3 drop to $199 later this year would probably do more, but even that I don't expect to make a HUGE difference.  It's just that time in this gen.