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Forums - Sales Discussion - Was MS Wrong When They Claimed The #1 Spot For HW Sales WW?

 

Which Option Do You Think Is More Accurate?

The PS3/360 Is Over/Undertracked In EU. 135 23.48%
 
Ballmer Was Including A Few Jan Shipments. 67 11.65%
 
MS Stuffed The Channels. 246 42.78%
 
IT'S 2012! WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE! 123 21.39%
 
Total:571
Darth Tigris on 10 February 2012

Who won? Whoever you feel, because many of you will either latch on to whatever source supports your position or even create your own truth. Such is the nature of fanaticism.

Question, though: Is there any 'official' source outside of VGC that is declaring the PS3 the sales leader for 2011?

2nd question: Overshipping or over-ordering? Do the product manufacturer's decide how many units of their product are shipped to retail outlets, or do they simply fulfill product orders that the retail outlets request? Both MS and Sony have now been accused of overshipping, so hopefully that question can be answered without bias for how things turned out THIS year ...



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MARCUSDJACKSON on 10 February 2012
RolStoppable said:
Darth Tigris said:
Who won? Whoever you feel, because many of you will either latch on to whatever source supports your position or even create your own truth. Such is the nature of fanaticism.

Question, though: Is there any 'official' source outside of VGC that is declaring the PS3 the sales leader for 2011?

2nd question: Overshipping or over-ordering? Do the product manufacturer's decide how many units of their product are shipped to retail outlets, or do they simply fulfill product orders that the retail outlets request? Both MS and Sony have now been accused of overshipping, so hopefully that question can be answered without bias for how things turned out THIS year ...

1) Microsoft's response to January NPD put an asterisk behind their claim of having been the worldwide sales leader in 2011. It's based on shipment data from Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo. Microsoft did not confirm that they won in sellthrough, either because they don't know accurate enough worldwide sellthrough numbers for 2011 or because they know them and are only #2. But since Microsoft should have access to a lot of numbers, the latter seems more probable, but of course it can't be said with absolute certainty.

2) Microsoft has set a precedence for channel stuffing earlier in this generation. Their declared goal was to sell ten million Xbox 360 consoles before the PS3 even launched, because "the first console to hit ten million wins the generation". They fell clearly short of this goal, but this didn't stop them from shipping in excess of ten million Xbox 360s by the end of 2006 to announce that they have hit that mark at least in shipments. They put pressure on retailers by denying them Windows Vista which was supposed to be a great seller, so most retailers accepted to buy more 360s than they actually needed. Then in the first two quarters of 2007, Microsoft was only able to ship 0.6m and 0.7m 360s, respectively.

In 2011 Microsoft once again set a lofty goal that was originally meant to be sellthrough (Don Mattrick's comment was clarified right after E3, I think), but has been moved to shipments since then. This is why the latter option of point 1) seems more likely, because if Microsoft had no good way of knowing sellthrough data, then they wouldn't have claimed to become the worldwide leader in sellthrough in the first place. Given the precedence set in 2006, it cannot be ruled out that Microsoft did something similar in 2011, although this time around there's not really a product (that I know of) that Microsoft could have used to "convince" retailers to buy more stock than what they would have ordered normally.

...

So these are the things to consider and I don't really care who won. I hate Sony. I hate Microsoft. Thus I will say this: Winning in a declining market isn't really something to brag about. There are bigger concerns than who is coming out on top.

i agree with allot of what Rol said but. the bold i agree with hands down. 

then again i do play more Wii sports resort these days. 



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thismeintiel on 11 February 2012
Darth Tigris said:
Who won? Whoever you feel, because many of you will either latch on to whatever source supports your position or even create your own truth. Such is the nature of fanaticism.

Question, though: Is there any 'official' source outside of VGC that is declaring the PS3 the sales leader for 2011?

2nd question: Overshipping or over-ordering? Do the product manufacturer's decide how many units of their product are shipped to retail outlets, or do they simply fulfill product orders that the retail outlets request? Both MS and Sony have now been accused of overshipping, so hopefully that question can be answered without bias for how things turned out THIS year ...

There is an official source.  MS's own financial reports.  It's funny how you talk about latching on to whatever source supports your position, but you don't even go the source you should be looking at, MS themselves.  In 2010, MS only shipped 12.2 million consoles, at which point they had very little in the channels (~600K).  This is either because they completely underestimated Kinect's effect, or they may have wanted to be able to report a fantastic year in 2011 (first time they've outshipped the PS3 and Wii) before console sales drop incredibly.  Either way, in order to get stock up to normal levels, they had to ship ~1-1.3 million extra consoles in Q1 2011.  Now if those 1-1.3 million units were in 2010, like they should have been, MS would have only shipped ~13.6-13.9 million last year, or 200K-500K less than the PS3 shipped.  In other words, we wouldn't even be having this silly debate anymore if people wouldn't be so selective in what they want to believe. 



 

Darth Tigris on 12 February 2012
pezus said:
Darth Tigris said:
pezus said:
Kynes said:
Wh1pL4shL1ve_007 said:
Kynes said:
kowenicki said:
where is a MIKEB? the infamous Sony champion... lol

...he'd actually have to say 360 won... oh the irony. He used to bang on about only shipped numbers matter!!


He left this place when he was sure that PS3 wasn't going to sell three times the X360 sales. I can say that I don't miss him.


He predicted that?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=1622174

 

I anticipate around 10 million sales per year on average, until the release of a "PSThree", then I expect the PS3 to sell around 15 million on average.

So 2007 + 2008, about 20 million, I anticipate a slimline PS3 to launch somewhere in 2009. By the end of 2012 about 80 million sales. I do expect the PS3 to stay commercially available for much longer though, so by the end of 2016 about 140 million (triple the amount of 360s I anticipate for the long run).

Of course there are endless yet unknown factors. But I certainly expect the PS3 to go well beyond 100 million for the long run.

Wow, he was almost spot on with his predictions till the end of 2012. PS3 will end the year at around 75m is my guess so only 5m off. He fails to anticipate the inevitable drop-off as the generation draws to a close and also 360s good performance.

Wow.  You just took selective reading to another level to completely ignore this:

I do expect the PS3 to stay commercially available for much longer though, so by the end of 2016 about 140 million (triple the amount of 360s I anticipate for the long run).

Ironic...read what you bolded in my post again

............ You're calling someone spot on that basically said that, by the end of 2016, the 360 would have sold less than 47 million consoles.  Even if he was close with the PS3, that 360 prediction brings it all crashing down.  



Darth Tigris on 12 February 2012
RolStoppable said:
Darth Tigris said:
Who won? Whoever you feel, because many of you will either latch on to whatever source supports your position or even create your own truth. Such is the nature of fanaticism.

Question, though: Is there any 'official' source outside of VGC that is declaring the PS3 the sales leader for 2011?

2nd question: Overshipping or over-ordering? Do the product manufacturer's decide how many units of their product are shipped to retail outlets, or do they simply fulfill product orders that the retail outlets request? Both MS and Sony have now been accused of overshipping, so hopefully that question can be answered without bias for how things turned out THIS year ...

1) Microsoft's response to January NPD put an asterisk behind their claim of having been the worldwide sales leader in 2011. It's based on shipment data from Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo. Microsoft did not confirm that they won in sellthrough, either because they don't know accurate enough worldwide sellthrough numbers for 2011 or because they know them and are only #2. But since Microsoft should have access to a lot of numbers, the latter seems more probable, but of course it can't be said with absolute certainty.

2) Microsoft has set a precedence for channel stuffing earlier in this generation. Their declared goal was to sell ten million Xbox 360 consoles before the PS3 even launched, because "the first console to hit ten million wins the generation". They fell clearly short of this goal, but this didn't stop them from shipping in excess of ten million Xbox 360s by the end of 2006 to announce that they have hit that mark at least in shipments. They put pressure on retailers by denying them Windows Vista which was supposed to be a great seller, so most retailers accepted to buy more 360s than they actually needed. Then in the first two quarters of 2007, Microsoft was only able to ship 0.6m and 0.7m 360s, respectively.

In 2011 Microsoft once again set a lofty goal that was originally meant to be sellthrough (Don Mattrick's comment was clarified right after E3, I think), but has been moved to shipments since then. This is why the latter option of point 1) seems more likely, because if Microsoft had no good way of knowing sellthrough data, then they wouldn't have claimed to become the worldwide leader in sellthrough in the first place. Given the precedence set in 2006, it cannot be ruled out that Microsoft did something similar in 2011, although this time around there's not really a product (that I know of) that Microsoft could have used to "convince" retailers to buy more stock than what they would have ordered normally.

...

So these are the things to consider and I don't really care who won. I hate Sony. I hate Microsoft. Thus I will say this: Winning in a declining market isn't really something to brag about. There are bigger concerns than who is coming out on top.

Exactly.  Like profitability and gearing up for the future of gaming.

While your comment was interesting, it really didn't directly answer my questions.  The first one was quite straightforward, but I honestly didn't expect anyone to know the facts about the 2nd one without some high level insight into how the retail channel is maintained for these products.  Thanks anyway.



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thismeintiel on 12 February 2012
Darth Tigris said:

Exactly.  Like profitability and gearing up for the future of gaming.

While your comment was interesting, it really didn't directly answer my questions.  The first one was quite straightforward, but I honestly didn't expect anyone to know the facts about the 2nd one without some high level insight into how the retail channel is maintained for these products.  Thanks anyway.

Your question already has been answered numerous times, but you choose to ignore it.  It must have to do with that whole latching on to whatever supports your position. 



 

Darth Tigris on 12 February 2012
pezus said:
Darth Tigris said:
pezus said:
Darth Tigris said:
pezus said:
Kynes said:
Wh1pL4shL1ve_007 said:
Kynes said:
kowenicki said:
where is a MIKEB? the infamous Sony champion... lol

...he'd actually have to say 360 won... oh the irony. He used to bang on about only shipped numbers matter!!


He left this place when he was sure that PS3 wasn't going to sell three times the X360 sales. I can say that I don't miss him.


He predicted that?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=1622174

 

I anticipate around 10 million sales per year on average, until the release of a "PSThree", then I expect the PS3 to sell around 15 million on average.

So 2007 + 2008, about 20 million, I anticipate a slimline PS3 to launch somewhere in 2009. By the end of 2012 about 80 million sales. I do expect the PS3 to stay commercially available for much longer though, so by the end of 2016 about 140 million (triple the amount of 360s I anticipate for the long run).

Of course there are endless yet unknown factors. But I certainly expect the PS3 to go well beyond 100 million for the long run.

Wow, he was almost spot on with his predictions till the end of 2012. PS3 will end the year at around 75m is my guess so only 5m off. He fails to anticipate the inevitable drop-off as the generation draws to a close and also 360s good performance.

Wow.  You just took selective reading to another level to completely ignore this:

I do expect the PS3 to stay commercially available for much longer though, so by the end of 2016 about 140 million (triple the amount of 360s I anticipate for the long run).

Ironic...read what you bolded in my post again

............ You're calling someone spot on that basically said that, by the end of 2016, the 360 would have sold less than 47 million consoles.  Even if he was close with the PS3, that 360 prediction brings it all crashing down.  

You must be fucking kidding me. I said he was spot on UNTIL 2012, that is this part:

I anticipate around 10 million sales per year on average, until the release of a "PSThree", then I expect the PS3 to sell around 15 million on average.

So 2007 + 2008, about 20 million, I anticipate a slimline PS3 to launch somewhere in 2009. By the end of 2012 about 80 million sales.

You're just trying to create trouble, leave it be

You must be confusing me with others, because I'm not a trouble maker.  I get what you're trying to say, but I think ignoring his 360 prediction is kinda crazy.  It may have only been mentioned in the context of his 2016 prediction (which, though crazy, COULD mathmatically still happen for the PS3), but he obviously is so far off with it that it just defies all sense.  It's like believing a psychic because he got 1 out of 563 predictions right.

Please do me this one favor:  say that the man had crazy wrong predictions for the 360.  Acknowledge it so we can confirm that you're sane like the rest of us.



Darth Tigris on 12 February 2012
thismeintiel said:
Darth Tigris said:

Exactly.  Like profitability and gearing up for the future of gaming.

While your comment was interesting, it really didn't directly answer my questions.  The first one was quite straightforward, but I honestly didn't expect anyone to know the facts about the 2nd one without some high level insight into how the retail channel is maintained for these products.  Thanks anyway.

Your question already has been answered numerous times, but you choose to ignore it.  It must have to do with that whole latching on to whatever supports your position. 

No, it hasn't.  All I've seen is twisted reasoning when all I want is a link to a credible source saying that the PS3 SOLD more than the 360 in 2011.  I didn't say one didn't exist or that it's not true or anything like that.  I just want to see it clearly stated somewhere credible, like say .... someone from SONY?  An analyst?  Anyone anywhere that has confirmed sales data so we can finally and definitively put this thing to rest.  No, no one is providing it, yet they are convinced it's true and keep restating it repeatedly.  What is that????

And nobody answered the overshipping versus over-ordering question clearly either, probably because the term "overshipping" demonizes the console manufacturers and not the retailers.  And who wants to demonize retailers when all we care about is Nintendo vs. Sony vs. Microsoft, right?  *rollseyessomuchgetsdizzyandpukes*



Carl on 12 February 2012

Can't we use VGChartz as a reliable source for WW numbers?

We are, afaik, inline with NPD, Gfk and Media Create.

So I ask, whats wrong with using VGChartz?



                            

greenmedic88 on 13 February 2012
Carl2291 said:
Can't we use VGChartz as a reliable source for WW numbers?
We are, afaik, inline with NPD, Gfk and Media Create.

So I ask, whats wrong with using VGChartz?

Not when those numbers contradict someone's hard argued points of view presented as fact, naturally.

When they support personal POVs, then oh yeah; they can immediately and unquestionably be accepted and used for the sake of a petty argument.

The nice thing about VGC numbers is that they are flexible and subject to correction as more information becomes available. It's not like the numbers are ever irretractable. But for the sake of arguments specifically on VGC, why not use their numbers other than because they conflict with one's argument? If that's the case, deal with it and hope for more corrections if it's really THAT important to you. 

Experience says the little man can't deal.