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Forums - Sales Discussion - Malstrom: Why Project Cafe will fail

RolStoppable said:
green_sky said:
RolStoppable said:

The problem is that "doom" is called by the one person that accurately predicted the success of the Wii.

Yea sure he was the only one who predicted that wii would do well. The hype surrounding its release doesn't count for anything. 

His first batch of articles went up around E3 2006 and he didn't only predict that the Wii would do well, but also for the right reasons. Just saying that something will be successful or not could be a matter of luck. Being able to explain the how and why makes the difference.

Besides, the hype surrounding the Wii launch didn't change the minds of industry insiders and analysts. They still held on to the belief that the Wii would die an early death.

You win. 



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So far we have no confirmation of what rumor is right or wrong or even to what extent, to speak so strongly about Wii2.
Until we know it`s price, games and overall strategy, we can`t go that way. Well, rumors tend to make Wii2 go after Xbox360 and PS3`s market and be like them, but we all know that didn`t work for Nintendo for 2 generations, why would that be different now?
I still believe that Nintendo, knowing the casual market as it does, won`t be stupid enough to just forget a market that cared so much for them and go with full force after the core market.
Looking at 3DS carefully we can see how Wii2 will be marketed. Nintendo is going after the core market first because the core market is the one that needs to be convinced now. They can go seriously after the casual market after because they still resonate with them to this day.
And that`s what, imo, will happen with Wii2: Nintendo will firstly appeal to the core gamers because to expand their audience they need to make them believe that Nintendo will take care of them. The casual market will come after aswell, but probably later (after launch that is).

About 3DS, all i have seen in it`s marketing plan has been the emphasis on 3D, streetpass, street spot and games: the core behind 3DS.
So, so far, i don`t think Nintendo is loosing focus on the product as it all comes down to the gaming experience.
Why is is that Nintendo offers 3D trailers, for example? I don`t agree with Malstrom when he says the market doesn`t change, because it really does. And the PSP example you gave is perfect. Gamers, especially casual gamers, are in love with Ipads and such because it offers great content, diverse content and all consoles are giving more content because they need to appeal to that kind of people.
When gaming started we hadn`t that kind of market because there wasn`t a product as Ipad/Ipod, etc that offered an array of content/functions but now we have and people are expecting that from a product, especially when they have to pay heavily for it.



Stefan.De.Machtige said:

Kudos to him. But I doubt he was the only one.

Unless the console, the target audience of even the advertising is revealed, one can not make any predictions about sales. Everthing about the wii2 is rumor except for the fact that it's coming. 

Malstrom can't analyze anything that isn't revealed.

 

That's Malstrom for ya. Seriously, why is this thread still going on?



Dr.Grass said:

SO he's credible because he predicted NSMB Wii would be successfull. Oh wow, no-one saw that coming.

>_>


Look at pretty much every game site article and expert opinion you can find before the Wii launch.

Also, look at how much hate NSMBWii got from the industry too.



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@RolStoppable

what you and malstrom don't see is, Nintendo is trying to expand its market.  They want to use technologies to make the Game cube and N64 3D games so easy they become fun to the normal people. The none tek people like malstrom says.

Bring the Hard Core games to the mass markets by taking all the annoying things out with  tools so they are as simple as 2D side scrollers

I don't know if they can pull it off. but if they do. they are opening up a new market to tap into.

 

 



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RolStoppable said:
Kenology said:
RolStoppable said:

Yes, Nintendo is getting themselves into trouble. While we haven't gotten official word from them yet, their moves with the 3DS and the tidbits from Iwata Asks interviews are worrisome to say the least.

Rol, could you elaborate on this point more?  I'm curious to know what your thoughts are.

It's not just... [continued above]

Thanks for explaining that.  It's strange that Nintendo would lose focus to this extent.  I wonder what's happening internally that is causing this shift in focus away from expanding the market and sailing the blue ocean.  I feel like Nintendo knows better than to descend into the red ocean and compete for customers directly with their competitors but it's true that the decisions they've made from Q4 2008 onward have been very suspect.



Aiddon said:
Stefan.De.Machtige said:
 

Kudos to him. But I doubt he was the only one.

Unless the console, the target audience of even the advertising is revealed, one can not make any predictions about sales. Everthing about the wii2 is rumor except for the fact that it's coming. 

Malstrom can't analyze anything that isn't revealed.

 

That's Malstrom for ya. Seriously, why is this thread still going on?

Because Malstrom brought up many valid arguments about what could be Nintendo's direction with its new console?

Seriously, even though we haven't seen the system yet, we can see indications about what's going on with Nintendo from interviews and investor's breefings, and public speeches and such. He isn't basing his assumptions on the mindless rumors that have been circulating lataly, but on what clues Nintendo themselves have given regarding their direction.

Hell, this is the same as Other M. People were all like "Malstrom hasn't even played the game, we don't even have gameplay and screenshots, how the hell can he comment on the story and how the game will be like" And yet, Other M was just the trainwreck of a Metroid he predicted it to be.

How? Because he looked at the developer interviews with Sakamoto and made the correct assumptions about how he would make the game. Malstrom has probably seen the same trend with developers before, and could predict based on that. That's what happens when you have been familliar with something for a long time. You see patterns that newcomers can't see.



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Albion said:

@RolStoppable

what you and malstrom don't see is, Nintendo is trying to expand its market.  They want to use technologies to make the Game cube and N64 3D games so easy they become fun to the normal people. The none tek people like malstrom says.

Bring the Hard Core games to the mass markets by taking all the annoying things out with  tools so they are as simple as 2D side scrollers

I don't know if they can pull it off. but if they do. they are opening up a new market to tap into.

 

 


This is exactly what he has been complaining about. He says that's what Nintendo is trying to do (especially with 3D Mario) And it's not going to work, because the mass market simply doesn't want those games regardless of how easy they make them.



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KungKras said:
Albion said:

@RolStoppable

what you and malstrom don't see is, Nintendo is trying to expand its market.  They want to use technologies to make the Game cube and N64 3D games so easy they become fun to the normal people. The none tek people like malstrom says.

Bring the Hard Core games to the mass markets by taking all the annoying things out with  tools so they are as simple as 2D side scrollers

I don't know if they can pull it off. but if they do. they are opening up a new market to tap into.

 

 


This is exactly what he has been complaining about. He says that's what Nintendo is trying to do (especially with 3D Mario) And it's not going to work, because the mass market simply doesn't want those games regardless of how easy they make them.

Yes.   But they will still try.   If they succeed in making 3D games as easy as 2D games to navigate they could make a ton of money...

Cause then they would be Hard core Friendly and casual friendly all at the same time. Like trying to hit 2 birds with one stone.   I don't  pretend to know if they will succeed or not, like malstrom is.

I haven't Doomed there chances.  Still Its not like Nintendo is floating clueless without a plan here.

They said with the Wii they wanted to capture both market. This next consul will be friendly to the hard core, and try to include the casual by making 3D navigation as easy as 2D side scroller.

Its not a bad idea. Will it work? sounds like a hard battle to me but who knows.



KungKras said:

Because Malstrom brought up many valid arguments about what could be Nintendo's direction with its new console?

Seriously, even though we haven't seen the system yet, we can see indications about what's going on with Nintendo from interviews and investor's breefings, and public speeches and such. He isn't basing his assumptions on the mindless rumors that have been circulating lataly, but on what clues Nintendo themselves have given regarding their direction.

Hell, this is the same as Other M. People were all like "Malstrom hasn't even played the game, we don't even have gameplay and screenshots, how the hell can he comment on the story and how the game will be like" And yet, Other M was just the trainwreck of a Metroid he predicted it to be.

How? Because he looked at the developer interviews with Sakamoto and made the correct assumptions about how he would make the game. Malstrom has probably seen the same trend with developers before, and could predict based on that. That's what happens when you have been familliar with something for a long time. You see patterns that newcomers can't see.

Uh THESE ARE RUMORS! Seriously, nothing has been confirmed, especially from Nintendo.  This jerkwad is barking because he knows he has a small number of people that will listen to him, especially since it's the hot thing to talk about right now