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Forums - Sales Discussion - predictions for 2008

Wii - 45m
360 - 24m
PS3 - 18m

Wii will have 50% marketshare by end of year, and will never lose it in this generation

WiiFit sales will only be limited by supply of Wii's and WiiFits. It will outsell SSBB by end of year (but SSBB will have greater initial sells)

MS will drop the price of the x360 prior to GTAIV which Sony won't be able to match. This (plus exclusive content) will allow them to sell more than double the amount of GTAs (by end of year, not initially) in NA.

By mid-year the mindset of Joe-Blow-American gamer will be 'If I want a game system where I can play online against my friends, I need an Xbox'. This will allow x360 to not only maintain, but INCREASE it's lead over PS3 in NA. NA will see the PS3 as an 'also ran'.

In Europe & Others the exact opposite will be true.

X360 will have it's best year ever in Japan, but it'll still be meaningless.

Wii will dominate in all regions, all year, with maybe the odd week exception for major launches/price cuts.

As the year progresses more and more Japan exclusive major releases will be announced for Wii. PS3 will flog FFXIII religiously in response but it won't be out until '09. Far too late to save this generation for Sony in Japan.

Almost all 3rd party games will be multi-platform or Wii exclusive.

By end of year we'll finally see black and pink Wii's. At least in Japan.

DS & PSP will continue much like they are today. PSP software development will start to dry up, but some key titles/genres will always be available. We'll all wonder how many DS's can each Japanese family have.



 

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Wii - 38 million
PS3 - 19 million
360 - 28 million

360 will be able to drop price to something more acceptable to casual players, and you people think it will sell a couple of million less next year?



Wii- 38-40 million
360- 23-25 million
PS3- 20-24 million.

This year will be huge for PS3 and I could severely underestimate the PS3 as PS2 gamers get ready to jump into the next (current) generation by picking up a PS3 as they are familiar with the PS family of systems. (Not all, but a solid majority of those who just have a PS2)

MGS4 will exceed expectations of many here on the forums and sell close to 3-4 million units. The reason I state this is because I never have liked the MGS series and have no interest in the series. But after looking at the Tokyo show demo of the game, it's a MUST buy for me now. All said, it will be a smashing success and huge hit.

There are other games coming out on the PS3 that could impact it, one of which is Socom Confrontation. If they truly make it like a online only HD version of Socom 2 with great gameplay, there will be many old fans of the series who will finally be convinced to take the plunge and pick up the system and game.

I also expect that there will be a surprise hit that will take the gaming industry by storm, and it won't be some casual game that tries to get kids to get "Fit".

I could be overestimating the Wii if demand dies down for the console as there aren't many big games outside of SSBB and MK coming out for the console and the "casual non gamer" lets their system gather dust and not have the desire to pick one up.



 


Get your Portable ID!

 

My pokemon brings all the nerds to the yard. And they're like, "You wanna trade cards?" Damn right, I wanna trade cards. I'll trade this, but not my charizard.

jjseth, you forget a big reason why the PS3 won't get the PS2 owners, most didn't buy until the system was under $200, and they won't buy a PS3 at $399, Wii on the other hand has more than just SSBB and Kart, and lets not forget the monster that will be Wii Fit (once it hits oprah, its over for PS3)

Sorry, but PS3 has to drop another $200 off its price before it starts to sell in large numbers.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash, you are entitled to your opinion just as I am. I really don't see Wii Fit being that big hit that you think it will be. American's are way too lazy. (I should know, I am one!) There may be many sold, but I bet that very few of them get used longer then a few weeks and will end up collecting dust or being sold on ebay.

Oprah giving out Pontiac G6's (or whatever those craptastic GM cars were) didn't spike sales for Pontiac. Just because Oprah brings it up doesn't mean that it's going to sell 100 billion units and be the coolest thing since Jenna Jameson turning 18.



 


Get your Portable ID!

 

My pokemon brings all the nerds to the yard. And they're like, "You wanna trade cards?" Damn right, I wanna trade cards. I'll trade this, but not my charizard.

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jjseth said:
Avinash, you are entitled to your opinion just as I am. I really don't see Wii Fit being that big hit that you think it will be. American's are way too lazy. (I should know, I am one!) There may be many sold, but I bet that very few of them get used longer then a few weeks and will end up collecting dust or being sold on ebay.

Oprah giving out Pontiac G6's (or whatever those craptastic GM cars were) didn't spike sales for Pontiac. Just because Oprah brings it up doesn't mean that it's going to sell 100 billion units and be the coolest thing since Jenna Jameson turning 18.

 Women love Oprah, and they love fitness, Wii Fit will be huge with women, and lets not forget how well Wii Fit is doing in Japan, people love it and it keeps selling out, and unlike Pontiac's Wii fit is under a $100, which means it has a mass market price, there is no reason to think that Wii fit won't be the biggest thing since Wii sports.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Mnementh said:
leo-j said:
You people HATE THE PLAYSTATION 3. Well what do you expect? Sony destroyed nintendo twice in a row, you dont want them to have a chance in doing it agan.

Don't blame me. I predict the PS3 is selling more than X360 next year. Also look at my crazy prediction for DMC.


The Devil may Cry 4 deal, may not be that crazy at all, and I mean this as at the moment without making preference over the one or the other console.  My reasoning just tells me that DMC4 will have bigger sales on the PS3 than the 360...

...however sales of GTA4 will have the advantage on the 360. I see it like this:

US: 65% 360 35% PS3

EU: 55% 360 45% PS3

HOWEVER... you may judge this either way you want, but I believe that if Sony & Rockstar reveal their contract PS3 exclusive game it may influence some people's decision on wether to buy the 360 version of GTAIV, the game MAY render exclusive content "not worth" it compared to the other game.

Also, As BengaBenga states above I would say that MGS4 will be the lowest selling MGS of the series so far. ALTHOUGH important factors to more succesfull sales figures will depend much on the review scores & advertisement from Konami & Sony. I will say the sum will be lying between 3~5 million LTD. MGS4 has a chance to repeat the succes of the original PSX MGS. lets hope it does.

Also next year I see the PS3 gaining in on 360's position ultimately taking over in Europe, still 2nd behind the Wiii though. However It will be limping behind in the states by a larger margin.

Killzone 2 is Guerrilla's last chance to redeem themselves. Therefore I believe they are working on making this their masterpiece. Killzone 2 will have a positive reception.

Wii will rule when Monster Hunter 3 gets released in Japan, not sure it comes out next year. But when it does... WII NUKE JAPAN!

Also, I believe Home & trophies will steal away some of the gamers from the 360 crowd. In 2008 more 360 owners will own a PS3 aswell.



Nintendo & Sony supporter:

 Consoles: Wii & PS3.

My Predictions for 2008:

Total end of year sales Wii 53 million, PS3 19 million, 360 26 million
Wii fit will essenstially be sold out all year in NA.
The Wii Will not see a price drop.
The Wii will pass NA sales of the 360 by the end of May.
The Wii achieves 50% market share by the end of July.
Nintendo will not reduce production of the Wii.
Nintendo will increase the production of the Wii 2 more times. Around 2.4 and 2.8 million respectively.
The Wii will be sold out Christmas 2008 and the holdays will belong to Nintendo.Japan will see new Wii colors next Christmas.
The PS3 will receive 3 more price cuts and at least 2 more SKUs.
The 360 will see an HD-DVD drive built in. MGS4 will go multplatform.



 

 

Predictions

Microsoft and Sony fight each other to a standstill...

Wii sales off (intended pun) over the horizon without even bothering to look over its shoulder.

Year end predictions

Wii 40m

Xbox 25m

PS3 17m 



rukusa said:
Mnementh said:
leo-j said:
You people HATE THE PLAYSTATION 3. Well what do you expect? Sony destroyed nintendo twice in a row, you dont want them to have a chance in doing it agan.

Don't blame me. I predict the PS3 is selling more than X360 next year. Also look at my crazy prediction for DMC.


The Devil may Cry 4 deal, may not be that crazy at all, and I mean this as at the moment without making preference over the one or the other console.  My reasoning just tells me that DMC4 will have bigger sales on the PS3 than the 360...


You are right, it's not that crazy at all, that's why I made this prediction. But my other predictions are way more conservative than this one.



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