^ha ha, yes DS you were over 10 million under... but tbh I wouldn't have dared a DS prediction back then... it's by coming here and watching numbers tick by [and reading a few of the more statistically intelligent posts] that I have learnt how things go... I don't think I was properly up to speed till late August.
I would welcome a returning prediction league, though I may not bother with weekly predictions.
Nintendo DS 55,180,000
Nintendo Wii 18,380,000
Playstation 3 6,469,000
Playstation Portable 26,260,000
Microsoft Xbox 360 15,284,000
Well my PS3 _ DS predictions failed big time, but I didn´t expect a 2nd price cut for PS3. DS is just a beast.
Wii and 360 predictions are Ok and PSP respectable.
Poor John. More than 70% of his predictons are wrong :-p
Either way, my predictons from April were alright. I knew within 2 days my DS predictions were way too low (53.5m), and I was right. The DS barely hit 40m at that point.
My Wii numbers were fairly good. X360 numbers were quite a bit off, by about 20%.
PSP numbers were spot-on.
PS3 numbers were pretty good considering the timeframe.
For my June predictions:
DS was still off, but bettetr than my April numbers
Wii was a bit low - off by 2 weeks (16.75m)
PS3 numbers were kinda close (7.5m)
X360 numbers were off, but better than April #s (17.2m)
PSP numbers were pretty close.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
My predictions (see: sig) are still very possible. I may have underestimated the 360, and I may have overestimated the Wii (hey, what's the fun in always being reasonable? :p), but the PS3 looks like it'll be right on the dot. And the 360/Wii predictions are still definitely possible.
SW-5120-1900-6153
Mine are in my sig. I didn't do handhelds, though I remember saying I thought DS would just break 60 milion for the year, which is going to be a bit low.
| johnlucas said: I can't remember every single prediction I made off the top of my head but here's some of them. 1. Wii will surpass XBox 360 sales worldwide within the summer. SUCCESS 2. (stipulation #1) Wii will surpass XBox 360 sales worldwide within the month of July. DEBATEABLE I still base this conclusion on Nintendo's June 30th quarterly report when they said they sold 9.27 million units AT that end of June. Whether counted as sold to retail or not, world combined figures would put this at or near 1 million enough to edge out the 360. But I won't quibble on this point so much out of respect for VGChartz's work. 3. (stipulation #2) Wii will surpass XBox 360 sales in the American continents within the summer. FAILED 4. (stipulation #3) Wii will surpass XBox 360 sales in the American continents within the month of July. SUPERFAILED 5. (predict league entry) Wii will sell AT THE VERY LEAST 20 million units worldwide by the end of 2007 (December 31st at 11:59:59.9 PM). TO BE SEEN...SHORTLY 6. Metal Gear Solid 4 will NOT go to the Playstation 3. TO BE SEEN 7. Resident Evil 5 will come to the Wii (and maybe exclusively). TO BE SEEN 8. Wii will have sold 60 million by the end of 2008 (December 31st at 11:59:59.9 PM). TO BE SEEN 9. Wii will sell AT THE VERY LEAST 240 million units worldwide within its lifespan. TO BE SEEN 10. (addendeum) Wii may see worldwide sales in the 500 million neighborhood within its lifespan. TO BE SEEN 11. Wii is the Future of Gaming (check my Kotaku/Joystiq posts in 2006). SUCCESS IN PROGRESS [see Vii & Sixaxis controller] 12. Wii will DOMINATE the 7th gen from start to finish to be console leader in all territories (check my history at Kotaku/Joystiq). SUCCESS IN PROGRESS 13. XBox 360 and Playstation 3 will struggle against each other for supremacy with 360 being the aggressor in the fight. SUCCESS 14. Playstation 3 will not survive past the year 2009 (meaning never seeing 2010 at all). TO BE SEEN 15. Wii Fit's opening week sales all territories combined will trump the opening week sales of Halo 3. TO BE SEEN 16. (stipulation) Wii Fit's opening week sales will trump the opening week sales of Halo 3 in Japan alone. ULTRAFAILED 17. Metroid Prime 3 will sell at least 500,000 opening week in Americas. FAILED 18. Super Mario Galaxy will sell 1,000,000 opening week in Japan. FAILED 19. (predict league entry) XBox 360 may come close but will not break the 14 million barrier of worldwide sales by end of 2007. SUPERFAILED 20. (predict league entry) Playstation 3 in best case scenario will just make the 7 million mark of worldwide sales by end of 2007. SUCCESS 21. (predict league entry) DS will see 60 million in sales by end of 2007. SUCCESS 22. (predict league entry) PSP will see 25 million in sales by end of 2007. SUCCESS 23. One of the current competitors (Sony or Microsoft) will drop out of the gaming business before the 8th generation. TO BE SEEN 24. The 7th generation will be extended past the traditional 5 year barrier due to the success of Wii & DS. TO BE SEEN 25. (new one!) Nintendo may top Toyota as #1 Japanese company due to the success of DS & Wii when it's all said and done with. TO BE SEEN I'm sure there's more but these are the ones I could think of off the top of my head. John Lucas |
I wouldent count predicitng the PS3 to sell 7 million and the PSP to sell 25 million untill the end of the year a succes If I where you . You should have say at least , and than you could cathegorise it as a success ...
My prediction :
PS3 : 8 million
360 : 14 million
Wii : 16 million
PSP : 28-30 million
DS : 55-58 million .
I was pretty accurate with the PSP and PS3 , but I really underapreciated the DS ...
Vote the Mayor for Mayor!
these were my predictions
DS-55 million
wii-18 million
ps3-10 million
360-16 million
psp-28 million
so i wasnt very close
The 360 and Wii, you may come pretty close to. The DS, you couldn't be much further off, and the PS3 and PSP you'll probably come about one million off.
SW-5120-1900-6153
I copied my prediction from another thread and put it into my sig. The first one has come true. I think I am on track for the others. I only made my prediction a week and a half ago though.
Hmm actually I may have undertracked my Dec 22nd prediction cause I can see the Wii hitting 18.5 million for that week. The 29th should still be on though but I will narrow my prediction to 19.2-19.4. If this happens that would mean that the Wii will hit 20 million by the first week of January. That also means John Lucas's prediction of 20 million by the end of 2007 is only off by 1 week. A prediction that most of the people on this website thought he was crazy for. I certainly didn't think the Wii could get that close. Who knows maybe it might still hit 20 million.
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