GT4 sold 10.61 million units, and it's still going up slowly. After 13 weeks, GT4 sold 5.4 million. Meaning post 13 weeks, the game sold 5.2 million. GT5 has to sell 4.4 million units to break 10 million. 4.4/5.2 is 0.846.

Basically speaking, GT5 needs to hold 84% of GT4's weekly sales to match GT5 sales. This I consider relativly close. It's currently holding 66% at best.

This is why I reference GT4, GT5 just isn't showing as strong legs as GT4. It's still early to tell, but if this trend keeps up GT5 will not break 10 million. Actually at this rate it will only sell 8.3 million, but I'll admit the game will probably do a bit better then that. PS4 is further away then PS3 was when GT4 came out, but GT6 will not take over 5 years to develop this time. They are not going to rebuild a new engine for 1 game, and do it again, especially since GT1-4 run on the same engine.

I have a question... if ioi change GT5 data next week you may confirm your predicition?

He won't change it because if he does all he said till now will become... well you se...

And not to mention that on PD website,

And don't even expect 580k on shelves for a game that came out in 2005. Ioi just don't know where to update the data (yet it's easy, a bit in NA, a lot in EMEAA)

Yet again you're saying that GT5 is selling worse than GT4 after it's 6th week, but just wait till we see what ioi does with the data, because at the end of the year, we had GT5 at less than 5m, compared to 6.37 shipped, for me that's impossible because it's common sense, next quarter if they announce the game at 7m by the end of March, and we had it at 5.7m (because that's what gonna happen if the data doesn't change) then: retailers are buying copies of the game but the game doesn't sell, you see that's impossible. But as CGI said stick with your prediction.

That type of arguement is all subjective. Anygame could be undertracked on VGC, PD is just one company which displays it's shipped figures.

Realistically, the game is being overshipped because GT is a popular franchise in EMEAA. Some countries in EMEAA are only recently getting copies of GT4 shipped to them, and since retailers are literlly seperated by country boarders, you just can't trade inventory from a store tat sells in high volume to one that doesn't.

Also on PD, before last December, the shipped value for GT4 was 10.85. 250k on store shelves for a 5 year old game, on a console which is still selling? Yes very possible. Gears of War sold about 100k last year and it's 4 years old.

I'm not sure what you meant, but if GT5 data gets adjusted (up OR down), I'm still going to keep my predicted sales value. I made this predicion before the game came out, and so far VGC data has been collaborating with my estimate very well.

The game is being overshipped, yea yea.. and funny you're not answering to what I said about GT5.

GT4 was at 10.570k on Feb 2009, and then 10.850 by December of the same year, and 11.190 as we speak, so as I said 580k on shelves is impossible and the game likely crossed 11m if a full year was needed for it to get from 10.85 to 11.19, and I don't know where your 250k come from but... (I hope it's not from 11.19-10.85 because that's 340k)

10.85-10.60 = 250k. Anyway, according to VGC, now there are 580k new copies of GT4 on store shelves and considering that in many countires in Africa, or elsewhere in EMEAA the game is still fairly new, thats completly logical. Even in Americas, Europe and Japan new copies are still being sold, along with PS2's, it's not that old of a game.

It's also consistant, VGC sales are going up just as fast as shippments with PD. You can't expect a game to sell all of it's shipped units within a few months, it can take up to a year to match those sales, something GT5 is showing very clearly (3 month delay for 5.5 million, probably more for 6.4 million).

So claims about GT5 being undertracked are completly subjective. I trust VGC data more then wishful fans. It could just as easily be overtracked.

However, is 9 million so bad? I don't understand why 9 million bothers you. It's almost double any other PS3 exclusive, and right up in Call of Duty numbers.

December 2009 - 10,980k

We had it at 10.330k approximately on Dec 2009, and these new markets are so small that 580k on shelves isn't possible, it's not as if it was in huge and developped markets...

So 10.60k sold for 10.98k shipped may be right, not with 11.2

This is why you shouldn't look at shipped values to make game estimates. 11.2 million shipped with 10.61 million sold, is the figure just after 2011's shipment. This shipment may be the shipment for 2011 as a whole. December 2009 PD hasn't made a shipment in at least 2 months, so the gap would naturally be closer.

VGC data may be off, but no more then 10%. Even then, if GT5 sells 2/3rds as well as GT4 for the next coming weeks it should at best reach 9 million sales (This is a conservative estimate at GT5 is tracking below 66%, but lets wait for next weeks data). 10 million is not impossible, GT5 may be bundled massivly like GT3, and anything is possible. I only said along the trend it's following, it's likely LTD is 8-9 million, which still makes it the best selling PS3 exclusive.