Okay sure, doesn't make a difference. The bet is for 2 weeks of Avatar control/Signature control.

So we use data including the week ending March 31st (lucky coincidence). For the second bet, were using data including the last week of 2012 (So first week which ends in January).

Just to clarify, what do you mean real end of March numbers? I want to make the bet using VGC sold numbers, whatever number is shown before adjustments for March 31st.

For a long time, the figure was 10.85 million, I didn't think PD would ship GT4 again 5 years after the game launched, and even then it's only a 35k shipment.

I'm not trying to change anyones mind, but why do you keep saying GT5 is "closing off much of the doubt it initially had?" It barely matched GT4 sales for the first 10 weeks, despite getting a large holiday boost and now it's selling about half as well for a corresponding week. It's not going to break 10 million at this rate. The way I see it, my prediction of 8.5-9.4 million is looking more and more right.

I don't think MW2 will cross 10 million, not with all the hacking troubling the PS3 version of the game. I dunno shipped values, but the game sold over 3 million week 1, and 6.4 million in it's first 10 weeks. So it's likely that it shipped over 6.4 million in that same timeframe. Probably closer to 7 million, which is more then GT5. Even if it crosses 10 million, it will just barely make it, and this is a bigger game then GT5.

Also GT5 still only shipped 6.4 million units as of right now too you know, those December shipments were intended to last a bit.

Just do me a favor and say "In my opinion ___________." Only reason you hear from me a lot is because you present your opinion as facts. We have no clue when a PS4 will be released, so GT5's sales may be cut substantially if the PS4 platform replaces the PS3. Sure it won't happen in 2011, probably not in 2012 either, but at this rate, compared to GT4, there is no evidence that GT5's sales will reach 10 million before 2013.

So lets drop this then.

This is your opinion please stop stating it as a fact. If the logic of no successor coming was true, then Assassin's Creed 2 would have sold significantly less.

Nvm, you always want to end any debate with a degrading comment... Go ahead.

Except look at the yearly ratios for MW2 so far.

2009  1.94:1
2010  1.40:1
2011  3.25:1

And for Black Ops

2010  1.69:1
2011  1.71:1

One of these things is not like the other.

As for GT5, how do you know there hasn't been a single shipment in the last two months?  You know they update the list quarterly right?  Are you seriously suggesting there might not be a single shipment between December and May?  Were you saying the same thing when they announced the 5.5 million shipment?

So again I will ask you why is this week worse than last week for kinect?

Wait what? For a second I thought that ratio was the total ratio of MW2 for 360 vs. PS3 in Americas.

The answer for the jump is simple. PS3 MW2 has a lot more hacking. I don't own MW2, but I played it on my friends 360 np, but on my other friends PS3, someone jumped through a wall and killed me, and another time a guy fell from the sky and killed me...

I noticed that as soon as I started hearing about this hacking issue, and significant hacking on MW2 for PS3, MW2 PS3 sales crashed. Infinity Ward even adressed the issue, but only for PS3 (which tells us the hacking is limited to PS3)

Maybe the hacking isn't that bad, but the timing is perfect. I think MW2 sales on PS3 dropped due to hacking. I have no proof, but I don't think this is a coincidence.

For GT5 I was only implying that December shipment was meant to last. I did not know PD made quarterly shipments (or maybe they just announce shipped units quarterly, that makes more sence). If PD shipped 9 million units total, that doesn't mean the game will sell 9 million units anytime soon, if ever.

Also GT5 sold 5.5 million or so, so doesn't it make sence they shipped that much? Took longer then most expected, but it still did it. They shipped 8 million Kinects for January 2011, and only at the end of January did sales surpass 8 million.

What are you trying to say? Shipped values are nothing good to go by, not all games sell what they ship. Kinect sold shipped units within a month, GT5 took 3 months. My only point was that on a weekly basis GT5 is selling about half as well as GT4, and because it's selling a lot worse, it's less likely to reach the same sales level.

At this rate, if GT5 holds sales at 55% of GT4's sales (which it didn't even do last week), the game will only sell 8.5-9 million lifetime. Hey wow, right in my prediction range, educated guesses based on math work.

It's the ratio for yearly MW2 sales in America.  It's a pain in the ass now to check weekly sales if they are out of the top 40 since you can only see in 10k increments.  However it seems most of the MW2 hacking news is from mid January, and it seems to have been selling less than half since before then.

I never said Polyphony made quarterly shipments, I said they updated their list quarterly.  You were trying to say they haven't made any new shipments since December, and that they could potentially last through May.  You have no evidence to support this.  You seemed to be working off the fact that the last update was from the end of December, so thus they haven't shipped any more copies.

Like I said, a couple weeks ago all we knew was that it had shipped 5.5 million copies in 12 days.  Were you saying the same things about that number that you're saying about the 6.4 million figure?

This isn't a case like Fallout 3 shipping 4.7 million first week and then taking around a year to sell through that.  When you get regular updates on shipment numbers I would say they are a good thing to go by.  If one quarter sees no increase or a very small increase then it either means it has stopped selling or the previous quarter overshipped.  If they keep shipping out more copies then there is obviously still demand for it.  You seem to be acting like the numbers on VGC are 100% accurate and never change.  Just as an example, GT5's first week is 230,000 higher now than when it first went up.   Do you want to bet that when Polyphony updates the numbers for March 2011 they will be higher than they are now?

No I heard about hacking just after christmas, which is when MW2 PS3 sales droped. Timing is perfect if you ask me. I could be wrong, some other factor could be at play, but for now this is most realistic scenario IMO.

As for GT5, I see what your getting at. However I don't think the shipment figure will change much in March. Units sold is a much better way to track a game.

When GT5 shipped 5.5 million, I don't think I said anything. One of my friends thought they meant units sold, and I had to explain the difference, but I don't think I made any comments.

VGC isn't 100% accurate, it usually takes 3-6 months before they stop adjusting the data. Remember the big boost PS3 got a month after Move?

I still don't believe GT5 will break 10 million. You can make speculations based on shipped figures, but those are only shipped figures, not sold. VGC isn't 100% accurate, but they usually are fairly accurate. So when GT5 weekly sales are less then 60% GT4's weekly sales, I'd be a bit skeptical of sales even coming close to GT4's sales, which are only 10.61 million. Ontop of that GT5 only matched GT4 sales despite the holiday release window, where GT4 was released in February/March. Also GT4 remained in the top 20 for something like 25 weeks. GT5 is already out of the top 10 selling games in less then half the time.

All signs point to GT5 not being as successful as biased loyal Sony fans like to believe. I acknowdge that Halo Reach won't sell as well as Halo 3, why can't Sony fans do the same for GT5?

Okay 10% error range. That still means GT5 is selling 45-55k weekly, much much less then GT4's 90k weekly. Total range could be 10% off in the other direction, so it could have sold less then 5 million total.

Even under ideal circumstances, GT5 has no chance of passing 10 million. So although there is substantial error in VGC GT5's numbers, at least to 6 months, you can still see trends. Barely matched GT4 sales despite being released just before christmas, and after the season ended, sales plumetted.

What do you think Analysts do for a living? They make estimates based off information given by VGC and other organizations (some which are 100% accurate and VGC base their intel on, like Press conferences, and NPD)