Yes PS2 will drop of, but this year or next. Wii only needs to creat a good enough user base until the end of 2008. Something that looks really possible.

The difference between 300 and 600 is huge, but it isn't mainstream anyway. So far it seems that 200 USD is the golden line. And what support will PS3 have if it start selling in 2009?

Every user counts

The sales in Japan is terrible, if they aren't fighting a uphill battle there I would say that the sales on the rest

Do they? Where is the new anouncments for exclusive games that will drive sales? PS3 have the support that was announced before the bad sales become apperant. Since then they have even lost exclusive games to xbox360.

Well we don't even know what the demand is yet, because supply < demand. But they wont sell 100 million during this year

They don't need either, if they could reach 17 million this year it would be a very good start.

PS3's getting slapped around in Japan, but the lead is just north of a million units. Far from insurmountable. They'd have a harder time climbing out of the 360 US hole than the Wii Japan hole. You're using shipped units, not sold units, so obviously your figures would not be a measure of userbase. I also gave sales numbers for GTA3 in North America to take into account that I was using only using North American hardware sales. Seriously, why would I count Japan with GTA? It's a moderate success at best. And European sales figures are too spotty to mess with. Oct-00 391,245 Nov-00 187,554 Dec-00 522,239 Jan-01 248,052 Feb-01 233,223 Mar-01 546,572 Apr-01 326,014 May-01 281,881 Jun-01 343,631 Jul-01 351,935 Aug-01 321,774 Sep-01 341,300 Total 4,095,420 Don't see how any of this was misleading, or made up, unlike yours (may not have been made up, but they're certainly misleading). In order to get some serious penetration, I'd put $200 as the figure as well. However, Sony should be able to hit 15-20 million prior to hitting that. During the 18 months that PS2 was at $300, they sold 9 million. I agree we haven't really seen any big announcements for Sony lately, outside their own internal work, but we haven't seen much from the others either.

Well when being outsold 70K to 11K a week it becomes more and more insurmontable every week. Let me put it this way. The Wii is selling like the PS2 in Japan and the PS3 is selling like the Gamecube...But wait the gamecube sold more for the same number of weeks.

Trends are important for markets and the trends in all 3 regions are not favorable for the PS3. the reason this is is because of price and price alone it is far too expensive and it is wearing at the barnd name each time a news story gets out about the Wii being hard to get and people seeing PS3s in the stores.

Most people can not tell the difference between HD and SD. Most people look at HDTVs and say flat Big and colorful. In fact the bigget difference that ATSC has bought is in fact Color depth, and Progressive scan. The rest is noticeable but not everyone looks at their TV like that. For many people you could sell them an EDTV as an HDTV and they would think it was an HDTV because it will have the two big factors of dgital TV Color depth and progressive and also flat panel.

PS3's getting slapped around in Japan, but the lead is just north of a million units. Far from insurmountable. They'd have a harder time climbing out of the 360 US hole than the Wii Japan hole.

The problem is that PS3 are behind now with more than one million and are outsold with more than 2:1 per week against Wii. Closer to 3:1, last week media Create was more than 6:1. Sales for Wii seems to be affacted only by supply and sales for PS3 is getting lower. Even if PS3 might not sell that well in USA it isn't outsold by the same margin. Not only that in USA they at least have some games that the audiance wants, meanwhile in Japan they have madden coming for golden week. Doesn't seems that well. As far as I know (correct me if I am wrong) it looks like this untill august. If the combination with Wii Sport/Play can sell 2 million consols I do think that the combination Wii Sport/play, Dragon Quest Sword and Brain Training can sell 1 more during the summer. That would leace PS3 almost 2 millions behind.

In order to get some serious penetration, I'd put $200 as the figure as well. However, Sony should be able to hit 15-20 million prior to hitting that. During the 18 months that PS2 was at $300, they sold 9 million.

Most possible they will hit 15-20 millions WW 2010, hopefully more than that (100 USD per year is maximum). The problem I see is that Xbox360 would have sold that amount in USA alone, Wii should at least be at 10 millions in Japan. PS3 can't afford to be so much behind if they want to start selling when they reach 2010. Hopefully (for sonys sake) they will get a small boost each drop for each christams season to at least have 30 millions by then. If not they are in serious problems. Xbox360 have a good chance to reach 15 millions during 2007. Wii should have the same chance if they can keep this up.

I agree we haven't really seen any big announcements for Sony lately, outside their own internal work, but we haven't seen much from the others either.

I haven't seen any announcements that isn't a port from xbox360 since sell start. I have seen a company state that they are delaying their games to PS3. Sony needs to create some momentum, for the moment 3rd parties seems to belive that it is sonys job, and it is. Sony wont be the first plattform as lon as both xbox360 and Wii has bigger userbase. Even if you doubt that Wii owners buys 3rd party games you must agree on that xbox360 owners does, and they are a lot more than PS3 for the moment.

If we're going based on trends, I have two that matter more. Sony has won the last two generations without breaking a sweat. Most major third party games have been and continue to be on PS2/3. Sony really doesn't have much in the way of games in the US either, but the big stumbling block in Japan is that PS2 dominates the charts (DS notwithstanding), so developers just keep releasing games for that. As we go further in the year, we will start to see the fruit of development resources shifting away from the PS2. With those figures I meant US alone. Globally, I'd expect Sony to hit shipments of 15 million by the end of the next fiscal year. 360 is a very attractive platform at the moment, as long as the key focus is US sales, which for most developers it probably is.

But the "Little Brother" effect will only last so long ...

A lot of publishers began forcasting sales for the PS3 based off of the PS2's performance. As projects are completed for the PS2, Wii, PS3, and XBox 360 developers will be looking where to "reinvest" their development resources which will result in forcasting of system sales based on current sales trends; currently developers will be looking at a projected release date of Q4 2008 where the PS3 will have a projected userbase of 15 to 20 Million users while the Wii will have a projected userbase of 30 to 40 million users. To what extent will publishers choose to support a dramatically less popular system because it has the "Playstation" name written on it?

Trends matter far more within a generation than between them.  While fanboys are fairly vocal most people don't buy video games based on which system won the last generation.  Most people buy video game systems based on which system is winning this generation (after the prices drop).  Dev support does tend to transcend generatiosn but only initially.  Dev's care far more about profit than they do about who leads the console race.  The PS3 is benefiting and will benefit from that for a year or so but as we are already seeing devs are rapidly shifting to the other systems as PS3 sales are disappointing.  The PS3's trend problem is that it's not selling well now so when prices drop not only will the Wii still be the cheapest by far and will have the most dev support but what matters the most the Wii will already be the winner to most people.  The fact that Sony won the last two generations won't matter in any way anymore.  Only Sony fanboys will care and they will have already purchased their PS3's.

Legend... I think most people will look at the physical size and the price of the consoles, and conclude that 360 and PS3 are more powerful. Most people won't understand the specs and stats, so while they might do a double take, it probably won't be enough to prevent them from buying the system with the games they want.

Well I don't know how many times I have stated this but here it comes:

In Japan the system seller is Wii Sport, if that game can sell over 1 million I think that Nintendo might have predicted right when they said that graphics isn't that important.