| Shane said: If we're going based on trends, I have two that matter more. Sony has won the last two generations without breaking a sweat. Most major third party games have been and continue to be on PS2/3. Sony really doesn't have much in the way of games in the US either, but the big stumbling block in Japan is that PS2 dominates the charts (DS notwithstanding), so developers just keep releasing games for that. As we go further in the year, we will start to see the fruit of development resources shifting away from the PS2. With those figures I meant US alone. Globally, I'd expect Sony to hit shipments of 15 million by the end of the next fiscal year. 360 is a very attractive platform at the moment, as long as the key focus is US sales, which for most developers it probably is. |
Trends matter far more within a generation than between them. While fanboys are fairly vocal most people don't buy video games based on which system won the last generation. Most people buy video game systems based on which system is winning this generation (after the prices drop). Dev support does tend to transcend generatiosn but only initially. Dev's care far more about profit than they do about who leads the console race. The PS3 is benefiting and will benefit from that for a year or so but as we are already seeing devs are rapidly shifting to the other systems as PS3 sales are disappointing. The PS3's trend problem is that it's not selling well now so when prices drop not only will the Wii still be the cheapest by far and will have the most dev support but what matters the most the Wii will already be the winner to most people. The fact that Sony won the last two generations won't matter in any way anymore. Only Sony fanboys will care and they will have already purchased their PS3's.
