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Shane said:
If we're going based on trends, I have two that matter more. Sony has won the last two generations without breaking a sweat. Most major third party games have been and continue to be on PS2/3.

Sony really doesn't have much in the way of games in the US either, but the big stumbling block in Japan is that PS2 dominates the charts (DS notwithstanding), so developers just keep releasing games for that. As we go further in the year, we will start to see the fruit of development resources shifting away from the PS2.

But the "Little Brother" effect will only last so long ...

A lot of publishers began forcasting sales for the PS3 based off of the PS2's performance. As projects are completed for the PS2, Wii, PS3, and XBox 360 developers will be looking where to "reinvest" their development resources which will result in forcasting of system sales based on current sales trends; currently developers will be looking at a projected release date of Q4 2008 where the PS3 will have a projected userbase of 15 to 20 Million users while the Wii will have a projected userbase of 30 to 40 million users. To what extent will publishers choose to support a dramatically less popular system because it has the "Playstation" name written on it?