A lot of VGC systems are automated so when they get new data, they just put it in, and see what happens. So although the system is efficient, it's prone to problems. Generally VGC is accurate to within 2 million, which isn't much since Sony and MS make press conferences every quarter stating sales figures..

Your just rude. "crying foul like a helpless victim." I mean common, and you say that you respect other peoples opinions? My views aren't inconsistant, you just like to agrue, and you want to change my opinion because it's different then yours and I stand on a pile of supporting evidence for my opinion.

I nevber said Halo: Reach was in the top 10 longer then GT5. Your putting words in my mouth.

and GT can be compared with CoD and Halo sales. I'm ignoreing week 1 because we want to know which game will have stronger legs, and GT isn't really selling that much better then Assassin's Creed.

The data for GT4? Your on VGChartz! Go look up the worldwide weekly sales yourself!

Enough said, I'm not getting into a debate with you about this, you know my opinion about the game, and I know yours. My points are not inconsistant, you've mentioned that multiple times and failed to site where, your just adding fuel to a useless debate. Lets leave it at that.

Being called out is different from name calling. You can questions someones opinion without insult. You don't seem to understand the difference, and I can't explain it any better over texts.

As for GT4 staying in the top 10. Your on VGCharts. Look up worldwide weekly sales between February 26th, and August 13th 2005. You will see August 13th is the first week the game dropped out of the top 10, and up until May the game held within the top 3 positions, only to come second when a new game launched. GT4 was released August 22nd 2005 in Americas.

None of this court stuff, your not a kid, the tabs are right at the top of your screen, and your on the website which holds the facts.

My claim is solid, are you now calling VGC data false? Please, just stop hassling me, I'm asking you politly.

It's my opinion GT5 won't have stong legs. For all we know Polyphony may decide to massivly bundle the game like they did GT3 in the west. If that happens then for sure this game will break 10 million, and I will be wrong, at least on total sum. Opinion, speculation, is there really a difference? Is anyone here 100% right on future sales predictions? If they were, why aren't they professional analysts? Stop hassling me just because I disagree with you, and can back myself up. You can't always win you know.

Well you only said "crying foul like a helpless victim" which isn't exactly name calling, I used the wrong term here, but you try to paint a picture of me as being someone who is oblivious to facts or just plain dumb, and you often use wording that isn't really appropriate, in order to paint me as a fool. In the past you have been far more insulting, in this thread not so bad, but I still don't like it when you try to make me look bad instead of debate a topic to try to win your point. Thats my problem, calling me out is fine, but do you need to be so derogatory?

As for my claim, I don't understand what "proof" you are looking for. Do I have to provide exact links or something? I referenced my data, you can easilly click two tabs up top and see.

You just said it yourself, "In GT5's defense, it didn't have those different launch weeks like that, and launched during the holidays (a time when games are far more front-loaded, off shooting the chances of hitting the Top 10 as, unlike being spread about throught earlier months of the year)." If GT5's sales are more front loaded due to the holidays (as am I trying to show you), only just matching GT4 sales for the first few weeks, dropping to below GT4 weekly sales, it's a reasonable thing to beleive it won't sell as well in the long run (aka, have weaker legs).

Thats my point, you don't have to agree, but you seem to understand the logic. Only time will tell, GT is a harder franchise to predict then say Call of Duty. GT5 could break 10 million, I don't think it will, but you never know. GT5 is only 200k above GT4 and I blaime the holidays for that. GT4 sold 137k on week 7, 121k on week 8, 103k on week 9, and 92k week 10. GT5 sold 146k on week 7, 97k on week 8, 74k on week 9.

GT5 is dropping weekly sales a lot faster then GT4, it may only be 600k away from 6 million, but if weekly sales drop down to 40k (which would still be strong for GT5), thats still 15 weeks away. Still it would beat GT4. Still on GT4's 20th week (from Us launch, I think ) it only sold 35k weekly, and I expect GT5's sales to be lower.

I mean reaslistically, if GT5 manages to sell 80% as well as GT4 in all future remaining weeks (something I think it won't judging that it's already selling below 80% as well and still dropping), that would mean that GT5 only gells 4.32 million units from this point on. 5.4 4.3 = 9.7 million. So either way, we know it will be close. 9.7 is more then I predict because I don't think GT5 will sell 80% as well as GT4 in the next few weeks, but thats my beleif.

Anyway, glad we settled that. I think GT5 will have weaker legs then GT4, and with good reasoning, thus my prediction seems balid for me (8.5-9.4 million). You predicted 10 million exactly if I recall corrrectly, and we only differed in our EMEAA figures, so who knows. Maybe it will get 9.7 million and we can call it a draw.

You and I both know install base is meaningless. Even if you ignore the fact that GT3 was bundled, it would have still sold close to 10 million units, and when it was released weren't their only 20 million or so PS2's?

As for opening week sales, 200k is not that different, but GT4 did that in February/March where GT5 had November. Probably wouldn't make a big difference on some medium sized games (like LBP), but do you think Halo or CoD would open to 4-5 million per console had they released in February? It's a different type of game, but still I think early GT5 numbers are inflated, especially weeks 2-8 because they are released during the holiday. Had this game come out in February I would expect initial sales to be 500k - 1 million less, which is enough to have the game match my predicted sales.

I know your prediction for GT5, it's not that different then mine 9.4 versus 10 million? I think the real arguement is will it be a 10 million seller?

It will be... 10 million for me is almost certain with these inital sales.

With these initial sales it's more likely it won't make 10 million. On a weekly basis it's underperforming GT4. Last week GT5 only sold 66% as well as GT4, and in the long run GT4 just crossed 10 million. Yes GT5 did benefit from the holidays and did outpace GT4 for a little bit at the start, but now that the holigay is over GT5 is crashing.

Just some weeks performing below GT4... GT4 will begun to sell sub 30k soon and GT5 not.

GT5 will sell more than 10 million lifetime.

You have to follow the trend GT5 is setting. Yes GT5 outsold GT4 by about 200k in the first 8 weeks, but GT5 was launched in the holidays. A game like GT4 peaked week 1 then very slowly went down in sales since it was released in February. GT5 peaked, leveled pretty high during the holidays, and now sales are crashing. Of the last 3 weeks GT4 has outsold GT5 and the gap is growing. At this rate GT5 is only looking to pick up 1.5-2.5 million more sales for 2011, and after that it will probably have insignificant gains.

GT5 sales are already only at 60k weekly, and falling pretty fast. Not to mention in a couple months all game/console sales will be half of what they are now as those are dryer months in sales. So no matter what GT5 will fall sub 30k weekly sales in a couple months. GT4 on the other hand took about 25 weeks to drop sales down to 30k, and then the holidays hit and slightly GT4 sales (GT4's first holiday season).

Your free to beleive what you'd like, but I'd suggest take weekly sales and plot them in excel. You will see the trends racing games like GT4 and Forza 3 set, and you will see that without bundling, GT5 is not going to make 10 million.

Considering the way GT5 is stabilizing 30K is not an unheard of weekly sales for a while.