So you're than analyst who made that silly chart : P

 I don't see how this can matter too much. 7 out of 8 PS2 buyers never bought GTA San Andreas.

 Not to mention its on the 360 as well, so the sales of that will be split, so only like 7-8 million sales for each console

It's possible!

But remeber: If u sell 9:1 u have 90% marketshare. But if u start to sell at a rate of 7:1 u actually lose marketshare whilst still outselling your competitors by a wide margin, just to give an example!

I don't think it will ever have 50% market share, I think it may finish the generation with 40% so I wont increase much from the current 42% odd

 As we saw this year, the Wii sells throughout the year at a higher clip then the 360 and PS3 combined.  It is more likely that Nintendo hits the 50% earlier in the year then later next year as the HD consoles are very Christmas and price drop heavy sales wise.  Nintendo should be able to hold around 70% of the market until Christmas time.  If the Wii doesn't hit 50% market share by October, it won't happen until at least February or March of 09.  Hence the reason I believe it will happen much sooner in August at the earliest and September 31st at the latest.

 PS2 and 360 won't sell much over 30 million each at most LT (compare them to the GCN and Xbox1 sales), so all Wii has to do is sell around 60 million plus for 50%

I crunched the numbers and for Wii to do this, it's percentage of sales from this point on needs to be:

(2.78mil/total sales from now+0.5) x100

So if at the end of 2008, an additional 40 million consoles are sold, the wii would need to have sold about 56% of those (or 22.4 million)

Naturally, the higher the total number of sales the lower percentage of those sales Nintendo needs.

Seems feasible, and probably even plausible by the way things ar elooking right now, but we will have to see if Wii keeps gaining momentum

Who cares? As a 360 owner (and maybe soon a PS3 owner ), I could care less what the Wii does. 

Wii sales mean nothing to 360/PS3 owners, because no amount of Wii sales will ever cause high end, next gen titles from coming to our platforms.  You can have your Wii sports, Wii bowling, and re-hashed Zelda and Mario...  I'll take Gears of War, Halo 3, Unreal Tournament 3, Heavenly Sword, MGS3, etc. over those lame arse, kiddie titles anyday...

So said the Nintendo fans when the Playstation was launched.

 Whatever Console has the highest Market share (in general) will be the focus of 3rd party developers, as that will be the most lucrative (in general)

Your "nothing can happen" argument can be pretty much blown away by thinking, what would happen in 2 years if the Wii has 60% Market share? 65%? 70%? etc, where is the turning point for 3rd parties?

EDIT:

And what intelligent, mature, thinking individual uses the term "kiddy games" any more, especially considering the fact that the average Wii player is older than the average 360 player.  I've certainly never heard of any retirement homes holding Halo tournaments...