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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the Wii end 2008 with >= 50% market share?

Avinash_Tyagi on 18 December 2007
Sqrl said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
revolutions said:
24 + 19 = 43m Wii
10 + 17.5 = 27.5m X360
12.5 + 8.5 = 21m PS3

43m vs 48.5m = damn close but the Wii will be under 50% marketshare.

lol, you actually think PS3 will sell 13 million next year, they'll be lucky to sell 10 million and 360 will never sell over 10 million next year, check their numbers its not possible not without massive price drops


 I'm trying to figure out how the 360 is going to sell another 2.77m before the end of this year =P


 oh they won't even get near it, I was being very generous, same with PS3, they'll be at 8 mil tops at the end of the year, 10 mil tops by end of march and maybe 13-14 mil tops by end of september, there is no way they'll even get near 20 mil next year



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Sqrl on 18 December 2007

@Avinash,

Oh I wasn't questioning your points, it was targeted more at revolutions. I was just saying that what you had noticed about the PS3 was, imo, less bizarre than the 360 numbers.



To Each Man, Responsibility
Mnementh on 18 December 2007
leo-j said:
No

They will NEVER make it to 50% market share.

That's worthy of a signature, to remember this claim.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

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Mnementh on 18 December 2007
jhlennon1 said:
No, that will never happen.

Same for you, my signature will remember this, we will see at the end of 2008.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

reverie on 18 December 2007

Hello? Don't try to estimate Wii demand for 2008. Not even Nintendo knows how much they can or cannot sell. It's impossible to see sustainable demand because they still have a backlog in the US. They need at least 1 month of shortage-free sales to see what's possible.

I for one hope that they'll do everything to reach 50 % by March 2009 because the 2nd half of the console cycle will be tougher if too many games stay 360/PS3 exclusive. The Wii should become the reference console for multiplatform titles like the PS2 before. That would be ideal for Nintendo. They might need a price drop for that. On the other hand, they could also live without it. It would just be nice for me, because I wouldn't have to buy a PS3 to get every game I desire.



Hardcore gaming is a bubble economy blown up by Microsoft's $7 $6 billion losses.

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reverie on 18 December 2007

Smash Bros won't be out in Europe before Q3 2008. There you have it, your first Nintendo title for next Christmas. :-/



Hardcore gaming is a bubble economy blown up by Microsoft's $7 $6 billion losses.

Griffin on 18 December 2007

You guys are also forgetting the one game that will force all last gen players to upgrade and that is GTA4, and i don't see it on the wii.



tokilamockingbrd on 18 December 2007

@griffen

your assuming it will the Phenomena it was last generation, I beleive it will be huge, I just don't see it be revolutionary as it was the first time around. I remember myself being in awe when I heard there was a game that lets you drive cars around and do what ever you want in a digital city. But, you never know, maybe they will make just enough innvotion to "catch the fire" again.



psn- tokila

add me, the more the merrier.

jlauro on 18 December 2007

With games like wii fit coming out next year, the demand is in excess of >20mil. It's true that we can't estimate sustainable demand, but IMO it's clear it's at least over 20mil immediate demand.



segajon on 18 December 2007

no chance the 360 is very consistent and the ps3 has a lot of momentum at the moment.

end of generation predictions

1.PS3
2Wii
3X360