Oh really?

Why, then, do games sell better (much better, in fact) on the 360 than the Wii?  What 3rd party titles for the Wii are lighting up the sales charts?  Oh yeah, that's right... there aren't any.  And, much like the Game Cube, and the N64, there probably won't be that many, either.

All of these "new gamers" to the Wii aren't interested in titles like UT3, MGS, Halo, or Forza, they want to play bowling.  And as long as that remains the current install base Nintendo is going for (casual gamers), those are the titles you are going to get.

As a Wii only owner, I can tell you I most certainly am interested in those games you listed.  And I may eventually get a PS3 or 360 when they lower in price enough and pick up a few more exclusives.  They may have more of a casual focus, but I think the casuals are necessary and buy more games than given credit for (all the crap million sellers on the PS2). 

Games sell better on the 360 because..... 360 still has almost 50% of the market share in America.  When the Wii overtakes the 360 in America you'll see a change and the Wii will start moving more software on the 3rd party multi platform releases.  Maybe not Madden and sports titles but titles that have a broader range.

 Actually quite a few third party titles have sold over a million on the Wii

Short answer. No.

In this generation I don't think any console will have a greater then 50% marketshare as the systems offer greatly different gaming experiences. You may see those with a PS3 or 360 pick up a Wii as a party system or for kids, while when they really want to get to the hardcore games they have one of the two powerful consoles.

With GTA4 coming out on the 360 and PS3, expect the margin that the Wii is leading by to shrink even more. The GTA series has been very popular around the world and will continue to attract gamers to one of those two systems. Which one a person chooses will be dependent on what they prefer of the two consoles. But without that experience on the Wii, it will end up hurting them in the long term.

 No GTA game sold over 15 million, on a console with 113 million in sales, that's about 13%, not really a big deal, in fact I would say almost everyone who is getting GTA 4 probably has a PS3 or 360 already

The Wii has roughly 80% of the sales in the US as the 360, better sales in Japan, and equal sales in Europe; in total, it is the number 1 selling home gaming console.

And you are telling me that because it hasn't taken over the 360 in the US, that "that's the reason" there is no third party support?  I have a better answer: The Wii does have third party support, but it has it in the form of mini-game titles that will appeal to casual gamers.

The 360 (and the PS3, to some extent) kicks the crap out of the Wii in attach rate because it is appealing to the gamer demographic of last generation.

Look, it is relatively safe to say that if you are posting on a gaming site, you play more than Tetris.  Having said (well, typed) that, I will re-iterate my original point:  I don't care what the Wii does in sales (and neither do other 360 or PS3 owners).  You will never see the types of games that appeal to 360/PS3 owners on the Wii - Nintendo is going after the casual gamers, and the Wii simply could not pull of the graphical demands of a game like Gears of War, UT3, Mass Effect, MGS3, etc.

So, why am I typing this?  Why did I post in this thread? To remind the Wii owners that most 360 and PS3 owners really don't care about Wii sales - we care about eachother's sales figures.  After all, didn't Sony and MS say pretty much the same thing at E3 2006; that the Wii would make a great "companion system" to theirs, and that Nintendo was not in direct competition?  Didn't Nintendo agree????

Hard to believe anyone is predicting well over 20 million units sold in 2008 for the Wii considering that current production is maxed out at a recently increased 1.7 million units per month which is 20.4 million, assuming it sells out for an industry unprecedented 2 years in a row.

Estimate a generous 18 million by end of 2007, add 20 + million assuming production is increased and sell outs continue through the entire year and you have 40 million consoles sold maximum.

Estimate 360 and PS3 sales to be a minimum of 15 and 8 million respectively for 23 million (lower than the actual total based on current weekly sales) combined.

To obtain 50% of the market, the PS3 and 360 have to sell 17 million units combined in 2008. Less, if the Wii is supposed to exceed 50% of the overall market.

Does that sound in any way shape or form reasonable?

If anyone wants to lay odds on that happening, it will be dependent upon Nintendo increasing production as well as selling every unit as well as counting on reduced sales from 2007 for both the 360 and PS3.

I wouldn't say that's unreasonable, more like virtually impossible.

The only way 3rd party Wii software will start moving at the same levels as the 360 is if they stop releasing all these god awful games for it. Eventually more than a couple developers are going to have to produce reasonably selling quality titles or the rush to jump on the Wii success train is going to slow as third rate developers call it quits due to a lack of returns. I genuinely hope that once some of these developers are weeded out, we'll actually start seeing more titles worthy of being published for the Wii.

 fixed.

You do realize Green that it takes Nintendo 5 months to ramp up production, its not maxed out, its just that they can't ramp up production on demand, they have to plan months in advance.

Nintendo will be able to sell everything they produce, the only question is how much they can produce