Hard to believe anyone is predicting well over 20 million units sold in 2008 for the Wii considering that current production is maxed out at a recently increased 1.7 million units per month which is 20.4 million, assuming it sells out for an industry unprecedented 2 years in a row.
Estimate a generous 18 million by end of 2007, add 20 + million assuming production is increased and sell outs continue through the entire year and you have 40 million consoles sold maximum.
Estimate 360 and PS3 sales to be a minimum of 15 and 8 million respectively for 23 million (lower than the actual total based on current weekly sales) combined.
To obtain 50% of the market, the PS3 and 360 have to sell 17 million units combined in 2008. Less, if the Wii is supposed to exceed 50% of the overall market.
Does that sound in any way shape or form reasonable?
If anyone wants to lay odds on that happening, it will be dependent upon Nintendo increasing production as well as selling every unit as well as counting on reduced sales from 2007 for both the 360 and PS3.
I wouldn't say that's unreasonable, more like virtually impossible.
The only way 3rd party Wii software will start moving at the same levels as the 360 is if they stop releasing all these god awful games for it. Eventually more than a couple developers are going to have to produce reasonably selling quality titles or the rush to jump on the Wii success train is going to slow as third rate developers call it quits due to a lack of returns. I genuinely hope that once some of these developers are weeded out, we'll actually start seeing more titles worthy of being published for the Wii.
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