Hello? Don't try to estimate Wii demand for 2008. Not even Nintendo knows how much they can or cannot sell. It's impossible to see sustainable demand because they still have a backlog in the US. They need at least 1 month of shortage-free sales to see what's possible.
I for one hope that they'll do everything to reach 50 % by March 2009 because the 2nd half of the console cycle will be tougher if too many games stay 360/PS3 exclusive. The Wii should become the reference console for multiplatform titles like the PS2 before. That would be ideal for Nintendo. They might need a price drop for that. On the other hand, they could also live without it. It would just be nice for me, because I wouldn't have to buy a PS3 to get every game I desire.
Hardcore gaming is a bubble economy blown up by Microsoft's $7 $6 billion losses.