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Forums - Sales Discussion - Analysis: How Xbox 360 And Kinect Nearly Toppled Wii In 2010

Jesus christ people, it's just the monthly GS NPD article.  It'd be nice to read a thread in the sales forum once in awhile without the usual suspects blurting out the same offtopic "butbutbutWORLDWIDE" noise.  It's like goddamn clockwork.



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This is an NPD analysis, folks.  No need to be dismissive of it because its a regional analysis.

One thing this analysis showed me was how the 360 basically SAVED the industry this year because EVERYTHING else was down except for the PS3 which was flat.  It'll be really interesting to see how the introduction of the 3DS, PSP2 and likely price cuts on the 3 consoles will affect annual hardware sales and revenue.



Carl2291 said:

... In America.

Too bad it finished in 3rd place Worldwide for the Year, and sold almost 5 Million units less than the Wii.


Remember NPD = WORLD!!!



Aielyn said:

What does the Xbox 360 have coming in 2011 to maintain the sales it saw in 2010? Not in terms of new hardware or price cuts, but software - the things that people buy the hardware to play. They don't even MENTION upcoming 360 titles, despite the fact that such titles are pretty much absolutely essential to making a coherent prediction.

Choice of language can be revealing. Did you notice that, rather than saying that the 360 sold nearly as well as the Wii, the phrasing was that the 360 nearly outsold the Wii? And without making mention of the Wii having a weaker year, either.

What does the Xbox 360 have coming?

  • Kinect updates and Kinect avatar chat/group chat.
  • Obviously some Live thingies.
  • Forza: Kinect, which looks quite promising if unproved as the 2nd major motion racing game this gen.
  • Buncha random Kinect games from Japan, mechs etc.
  • Gears of War 3 / maybe Halo.
  • Buncha Rare games and some other unannounced 1st party projects
  • Lotsa 3rd party multiplats
  • Smattering of smaller PC/360 sexclusives
  • Rumours of a Live cable service.
  • Some unannounced western Kinect games and that Star Wars 1 which was delayed to Q4
  • Maybe a price cut?

You know equaling the Wii would require the 360 to sell exactly the same number of units. Outselling the Wii has quite a range of possible numbers. So it is better to say that the Wii nearly got passed than it is to say that the Wii nearly got equalled. Arguably they could have also said that the 360 sold as well. But I seriously doubt you'd have liked that either.





Tease.

Squilliam said:
Aielyn said:

What does the Xbox 360 have coming in 2011 to maintain the sales it saw in 2010? Not in terms of new hardware or price cuts, but software - the things that people buy the hardware to play. They don't even MENTION upcoming 360 titles, despite the fact that such titles are pretty much absolutely essential to making a coherent prediction.

Choice of language can be revealing. Did you notice that, rather than saying that the 360 sold nearly as well as the Wii, the phrasing was that the 360 nearly outsold the Wii? And without making mention of the Wii having a weaker year, either.

What does the Xbox 360 have coming?

  • Kinect updates and Kinect avatar chat/group chat.
  • Obviously some Live thingies.
  • Forza: Kinect, which looks quite promising if unproved as the 2nd major motion racing game this gen.
  • Buncha random Kinect games from Japan, mechs etc.
  • Gears of War 3 / maybe Halo.
  • Buncha Rare games and some other unannounced 1st party projects
  • Lotsa 3rd party multiplats
  • Smattering of smaller PC/360 sexclusives
  • Rumours of a Live cable service.
  • Some unannounced western Kinect games and that Star Wars 1 which was delayed to Q4
  • Maybe a price cut?

You know equaling the Wii would require the 360 to sell exactly the same number of units. Outselling the Wii has quite a range of possible numbers. So it is better to say that the Wii nearly got passed than it is to say that the Wii nearly got equalled. Arguably they could have also said that the 360 sold as well. But I seriously doubt you'd have liked that either.



I think he was talking about the fact they didn't mention the software like you did. 



 

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Darth Tigris said:

One thing this analysis showed me was how the 360 basically SAVED the industry this year because EVERYTHING else was down except for the PS3 which was flat.  It'll be really interesting to see how the introduction of the 3DS, PSP2 and likely price cuts on the 3 consoles will affect annual hardware sales and revenue.

I think 3DS mania plus Kinect growth might be enough to put 2011 ahead of 2010.  I don't expect either Wii or PS3 to grow though, at best they'll probably stay flat.  PSP2 comes too late probably to make much impact, and it's success is still pretty up in the air anyway.  I do expect DS/PSP/PS2 to fall off the map though (PS2/PSP are arguably already there).

360's situation is pretty unique though, it's basically like a complete worldwide system relaunch.  I don't think we've ever really seen anything comparable except the original Game Boy's revival in the mid 1990s (based off the GB Pocket and Pokemon dream combo, which is actually kinda similar to 360's S and Kinect dream combo).



Acevil said:
Squilliam said:
Aielyn said:

What does the Xbox 360 have coming in 2011 to maintain the sales it saw in 2010? Not in terms of new hardware or price cuts, but software - the things that people buy the hardware to play. They don't even MENTION upcoming 360 titles, despite the fact that such titles are pretty much absolutely essential to making a coherent prediction.

Choice of language can be revealing. Did you notice that, rather than saying that the 360 sold nearly as well as the Wii, the phrasing was that the 360 nearly outsold the Wii? And without making mention of the Wii having a weaker year, either.

What does the Xbox 360 have coming?

  • Kinect updates and Kinect avatar chat/group chat.
  • Obviously some Live thingies.
  • Forza: Kinect, which looks quite promising if unproved as the 2nd major motion racing game this gen.
  • Buncha random Kinect games from Japan, mechs etc.
  • Gears of War 3 / maybe Halo.
  • Buncha Rare games and some other unannounced 1st party projects
  • Lotsa 3rd party multiplats
  • Smattering of smaller PC/360 sexclusives
  • Rumours of a Live cable service.
  • Some unannounced western Kinect games and that Star Wars 1 which was delayed to Q4
  • Maybe a price cut?

You know equaling the Wii would require the 360 to sell exactly the same number of units. Outselling the Wii has quite a range of possible numbers. So it is better to say that the Wii nearly got passed than it is to say that the Wii nearly got equalled. Arguably they could have also said that the 360 sold as well. But I seriously doubt you'd have liked that either.



I think he was talking about the fact they didn't mention the software like you did. 

Software for 2011 is hard to analyze, though, because of potential delays, unannounced games (of which there are many) and the reality that new software doesn't have a consistent impact.  With casual gamers in particular, sales of older, popular software often outperforms new releases (see top Wii software sales for the holiday).

It also appears that software will have its own, separate analysis, so it's a bit disingenuous to attack this analysis for leaving that out IMO.



Acevil said:

I think he was talking about the fact they didn't mention the software like you did. 

Given the fact that most software is unknown, in unknown quantity and unknown quality at this point, what is there to say? Given reasonable competence from Microsoft you could expect a reasonable level of software releases for a given year from a software perspective without knowing precisely what software is on the cards. They only have to assume that Microsoft isn't a complete screwup and has some more good software on the way, it isn't a bad assumption by any means.



Tease.

Carl2291 said:

... In America.

Too bad it finished in 3rd place Worldwide for the Year, and sold almost 5 Million units less than the Wii.





Carl2291 said:

... In America.

Too bad it finished in 3rd place Worldwide for the Year, and sold almost 5 Million units less than the Wii.


Who said anything about Worldwide?