Wii: 18 million

Xbox360: 13.5 million

PS3:14.8 million

Wii - 16 million

PS3 - 12 million

360- 11 million

Most people are probably assuming that it will peak in the same lifecycle year as the 360, with a hefty price cut it very well could. But it could also already have peaked.

Ah, I see. Thanks for clearing it up. I suppose it could happen if Sony cuts price or comes up with a surprise next year.

its in my sig which is always changing

We'll see. It would have to be something in the 100 dollar zone to have a large impact, effectively making it the same price as the competition. I think Sony will be faced with a choice this year; lower the price a lot and go back into red or potentially keep losing marketshare and thus market power that they have worked hard to get through the past fifteen years.

Read my above post to know my reason.

wii 16 million:(sales will be flat to down the whole year. The holidays will be down. How much is a question mark because of lack of games we know but I know for sure they are motion games)

360 12 million:(kinect effect will decline and microsoft will not expect it and cut the price to meet forecasts)

ps3 13 million (sales will  decline due to no price cut and sales goingdown in japan causing flat us and europe unable to offset it)

edit I forgot handhelds

DS 14 million (sales will drop again)

PSP 7 million(sales will drop but sony will refuse to drop it )

3DS 10 million (start off slow due to lack of evergreens)

PSP2 0 million (won't come out if ever)

IMO probably the safest prediction is Wii > 360 = PS3 because thats what we had this year. So even if you're bullish on the prospects of Sony it is quite likely that given momentum coming into the year the 360 will be ahead of the PS3 until such time as there is a price cut which has every chance of being mutual so that will result in an effective tie.

If you favour Kinect to pull in a lot of demand throughout then chances are you'll probably want something that looks like Wii = 360 or 360 > Wii if you're really bullish and both > PS3.

Finally in terms of major variables:

Xbox 360 price cuts: Well you can't actually say what their objectives are. They have large margins on both Kinect and consoles and because of their different SKU systems and external HDDs it makes it difficult to figure what their overall price mix will be since they have 4 major SKUs. Quite likely however the top SKU will go down to $300 but how much of a gap between various SKUs and whether they will keep the same ratios is another thing. Also it depends on how much of a price cut the PS3 gets, I doubt they will let the 250GB be more expensive than a PS3 and that changes everything else.

My best guess: Arcade $149, 250GB/Kinect 4GB $229 250GB Kinect $299 and Kinect standalone is ??? Maybe $119?

Sony and price cut? Well im not sure if they have a 2nd revision planned for 2011 to lower the cost or if they do have one whether the whole piracy issue might delay that out of 2011 entirely given they'd have to finalise the design early in 2011 in order to get enough units to cut the price to $199 as some people hope. Furthermore if piracy starts to dampen their sales they'll need to take higher gross margins on their consoles which means less chance of a price cut, perhaps even a chance of no price cut.

Wii: Well im not sure but wasn't it $149 as a base price for this holiday? Im not 100% sure of the availability of that SKU however it did seem to prove popular. Maybe a tiered pricing structure where a Wii with 2-3 games including Sports and Sports resort might come into play for a $199 top SKU to preserve margins and a basic Wii with just Wii Sports for $149.

Im sorry but almost everyone who posted IS DEAD WRONG!

PS3 will outsell Xbox and the Wii no doubt QUOTE ME ON THAT! I BET YOUS ANY MONEY...

PS3 has soooooo many good exclusives comming out next year...and everyone knows it ps3s will sell like crazy...what all yous must think software has no effect in sales?? pfft yous are WRONG software is everything for ps3 CASUAL GAMERS DONT BUY PS3s OK!? they buy a wii or kinect bundle (witch is sad because kinect is so fail it has no core games and never will..it was just M$ putting there hands into casual gamers pockets)

2011 is ps3s year and everyone knows it 2011 IS THEE TIME TO BUY A PS3

LBP2 (move compatible)

KIllzone 3 (move compatible)

Infamous 2

Motorstorm apocalyps

Last Guardian

ICO collection HD (ICO & Shadow of the Colossus)

Resistance 3

SOCOM 4 (move compatible)

Twisted Metal

Uncharted 3

Ratchet And Clank All 4 one

Heros on the move (move compatible)

Scorcerry (move compatible)

Yakuza 4

---------------------------------Console & PC--------------------------------------

DC Online

FF14

The Agency

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Rockstar NORTHS "Agent"

FF Versus XIII

Sly 4