IMO probably the safest prediction is Wii > 360 = PS3 because thats what we had this year. So even if you're bullish on the prospects of Sony it is quite likely that given momentum coming into the year the 360 will be ahead of the PS3 until such time as there is a price cut which has every chance of being mutual so that will result in an effective tie.
If you favour Kinect to pull in a lot of demand throughout then chances are you'll probably want something that looks like Wii = 360 or 360 > Wii if you're really bullish and both > PS3.
Finally in terms of major variables:
Xbox 360 price cuts: Well you can't actually say what their objectives are. They have large margins on both Kinect and consoles and because of their different SKU systems and external HDDs it makes it difficult to figure what their overall price mix will be since they have 4 major SKUs. Quite likely however the top SKU will go down to $300 but how much of a gap between various SKUs and whether they will keep the same ratios is another thing. Also it depends on how much of a price cut the PS3 gets, I doubt they will let the 250GB be more expensive than a PS3 and that changes everything else.
My best guess: Arcade $149, 250GB/Kinect 4GB $229 250GB Kinect $299 and Kinect standalone is ??? Maybe $119?
Sony and price cut? Well im not sure if they have a 2nd revision planned for 2011 to lower the cost or if they do have one whether the whole piracy issue might delay that out of 2011 entirely given they'd have to finalise the design early in 2011 in order to get enough units to cut the price to $199 as some people hope. Furthermore if piracy starts to dampen their sales they'll need to take higher gross margins on their consoles which means less chance of a price cut, perhaps even a chance of no price cut.
Wii: Well im not sure but wasn't it $149 as a base price for this holiday? Im not 100% sure of the availability of that SKU however it did seem to prove popular. Maybe a tiered pricing structure where a Wii with 2-3 games including Sports and Sports resort might come into play for a $199 top SKU to preserve margins and a basic Wii with just Wii Sports for $149.
Tease.
