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Forums - Nintendo - Will the Wii reach 100 million by 2011?

phenom08 on 21 December 2010
SaviorX said:
phenom08 said:
SaviorX said:
RolStoppable said:
phenom08 said:

Why exactly will the wii drop that hard in 2011?

No games, no sales.

Pretty much this.

I am skeptical of what software could potentially do for the Wii this late in the game. Based solely on what we know now, the outlook is bleak for the Wii in comparison to 2010 sales; 3rd parties had quite the amount of hits this HOLIDAY SEASON for the Wii, but as far as I know their support will be even lower during the course of next year than it was for 2010.

In terms of Nintendo Software, I don't know if what they have in store is evergreen/bridge or has system selling potential. They could release Vitality Sensor and beat 2009 sales, or they could release Wii Music 2 and effectively stop Wii sales cold. Ninty has been hinting at a WM2 as well, so I'd take precaution haha.

Zelda can only do so much, and Japan is a wasteland. There is DQX (maybe 2011), The Last Story, and Earth Seeker. TLS can push some units due to bundling, but Japan has constantly disappointed in the SW department this gen; I'm not getting my hopes up now.

A price cut could change things, but like Rol said, no games no sales.

so like Rol your making the same mistake because like Rol you know nothing of its software come next year, what exactly did third parties have this year that help keep the wii goin, that we knew about a year before, remember alot of those games we found out about around e3 so why not just wait and see what third parties have instead of assuming they have nothing


Like I said, I have no idea what's in store next year. The numbers I had earlier were near worst-case scenario. With all the software possibilities in store for next year, in addition to a potential price cut, the Wii indeed could pass 100m. However, with just normal yearly decline and SUSPECT 3rd party support, I don't think it could quite make it to 100m by Dec. 2011.

Just check my earlier post; I pretty much said all I had to :P

I checked it, all i can do is agree to disagree, i see the wii worst case being more along the lines of 15 million, no way will it pull 13 or 14 million



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SaviorX on 21 December 2010
phenom08 said:
SaviorX said:


Like I said, I have no idea what's in store next year. The numbers I had earlier were near worst-case scenario. With all the software possibilities in store for next year, in addition to a potential price cut, the Wii indeed could pass 100m. However, with just normal yearly decline and SUSPECT 3rd party support, I don't think it could quite make it to 100m by Dec. 2011.

Just check my earlier post; I pretty much said all I had to :P

I checked it, all i can do is agree to disagree, i see the wii worst case being more along the lines of 15 million, no way will it pull 13 or 14 million

Hold on; where do you think Wii sales will be by the end of this year? End of Q1 2011? This will lead into my next question... lol



Leatherhat on July 6th, 2012 3pm. Vita sales:"3 mil for COD 2 mil for AC. Maybe more. "  thehusbo on July 6th, 2012 5pm. Vita sales:"5 mil for COD 2.2 mil for AC."

SmokedHostage on 21 December 2010

Case and Point, Wii needs a new NSMB (no Beuli2, not a sequel) or Just Dance..



Pixel Art can be fun.

Beuli2 on 21 December 2010
SmokedHostage said:

Case and Point, Wii needs a new NSMB (no Beuli2, not a sequel) or Just Dance..

If it isn't a sequel then what it is?



Above: still the best game of the year.

Beuli2 on 21 December 2010
RolStoppable said:
Beuli2 said:
SmokedHostage said:

Case and Point, Wii needs a new NSMB (no Beuli2, not a sequel) or Just Dance..

If it isn't a sequel then what it is?

A remake or a rehash, like all other Nintendo series.

Are you saying you didn't buy Super Mario Bros. for the third time in Super Mario All Stars especial edition?



Above: still the best game of the year.

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phenom08 on 22 December 2010
SaviorX said:
phenom08 said:
SaviorX said:
 


Like I said, I have no idea what's in store next year. The numbers I had earlier were near worst-case scenario. With all the software possibilities in store for next year, in addition to a potential price cut, the Wii indeed could pass 100m. However, with just normal yearly decline and SUSPECT 3rd party support, I don't think it could quite make it to 100m by Dec. 2011.

Just check my earlier post; I pretty much said all I had to :P

I checked it, all i can do is agree to disagree, i see the wii worst case being more along the lines of 15 million, no way will it pull 13 or 14 million

Hold on; where do you think Wii sales will be by the end of this year? End of Q1 2011? This will lead into my next question... lol

84.5 to 85 million by the end of 2010 and i cant comment on 2011 but i think w/o a redesign, 17 million is possible for the year since it will probably only drop around 3 million this year from 20 million



MrT-Tar on 22 December 2010

I think it can do it, it will be close, but achieved nonetheless 




gekkokamen on 22 December 2010
Beuli2 said:
gekkokamen said:

if Nintendo cuts the price to $150 next year Wii could have a shot at 15 million, if not, then nope.

A shot? How much do you rhink it'll sell next year?  12 millions? It jsut won't fall that much from 19 millions.

And let me ask you're also one of those who thinks the Xbox 360 or PS3 will sell more than 15 millions next year?


Just won't fall? what makes you so sure to state that as FACT? I gave you my prediction, just what i THINK. So whatever. Sales go down, not up after you reach a point in life and just under $200 price tag. I THINK the Wii won't sell more than 15 million next year, is it so hard to believe? I THINK it's quite realistic.



phenom08 on 22 December 2010
gekkokamen said:
Beuli2 said:
gekkokamen said:

if Nintendo cuts the price to $150 next year Wii could have a shot at 15 million, if not, then nope.

A shot? How much do you rhink it'll sell next year?  12 millions? It jsut won't fall that much from 19 millions.

And let me ask you're also one of those who thinks the Xbox 360 or PS3 will sell more than 15 millions next year?


Just won't fall? what makes you so sure to state that as FACT? I gave you my prediction, just what i THINK. So whatever. Sales go down, not up after you reach a point in life and just under $200 price tag. I THINK the Wii won't sell more than 15 million next year, is it so hard to believe? I THINK it's quite realistic.

Funny how he ignored the 360 or ps3 prediction



mhsillen on 22 December 2010
Nintendogamer said:
SaviorX said:

...

It looks like, the Week Ending January 02, 2011, the Wii will have sold 84.6 million.

Starting from January 02, 2011, to the end of March 2011, the Wii will sell just under 3 million (~2.94m). Within the 9 months afterwards, the Wii will have to sell 12.56 million...

It won't be able to pull it off, but it will get REALLY close (98.0 million). My guess for 2011 looks like this:


 24,393,681 ( 49%) 43,713,632
  21,802,884 (-11%) 65,516,516
2008 24,393,681 (49%) 43,713,632
2009 21,802,884 (-11%) 65,516,516
2010 19,143,288 (-13%) 84,659,804
2011 13,347,458 (-31%) 98,007,262

My numbers are kinda conservative; almost worst-case scenario. Fortunately, several things can occur which can save the Wii from falling short of that illustrious 100 MILLION mark before next year ends.

Zelda can provide some type of hardware boost ( I doubt it would last more than a Week but who knows). Just Dance 2 can prevent EMEAA sales from dropping as harshly as I think they will, in conjunction with whatever Donkey Kong can muster over time (2.42m in EMEAA after 1 year I think).

A price drop to $150 could probably boost my numbers by 6%-12%. This will be the most important chance the Wii gets; a price cut is inevitable in 2011 but its impact is questionable. Dragon Quest X releasing in 2011 could also soften the Japanese slump ----which will be the cause of quite the percentage decline for the Wii.

Whatever new IP Miyamoto is working on could be a hit, or the Vitality Sensor could release in May and go Wii Fit on us with millions  out the gate. Maybe some 3DS <--> Wii connectivity will spur on sales.

Whatever happens, the Wii will at least manage another 10m year. For the hopeful, here is what may happen if 2011 gives the Wii a break:

Lucky 2011 15,506,259 (-19%) 100,166,063

Yep, I reckon it will finish around the 96M - 98M range, good milestone, but 100M is a no brainer in Q1 2012 if it doesn't do 100M end of 2011.  We shall see in 1 years time, but I guess we can easily guess during Fall 2011.

from 19 mil to 13 mil?

No way does it drop that much maybe to 17 but that much?

way to negative

My guess is 101 mil