I know I said Id leave, but im responding to this. What Bod was saying in a nutshell was,

"Look at October, Look at how good Microsoft thinks they did in software, but now look at November and see how Microsoft can not make the same claim of software superiority because the Wii did so well in selling software."  (in a nutshell , meaning its not a quote)

I am saying that I believe the Wii had an unusally super month because of Mario Galaxy the same as September was unusual to Xbox so that argument cannot be made. That is all.

I agree, but there really isn't any point responding to him now.

He's just going to keep drowning us in statistical noise and hopes that confuses things enough that no conclusions can be drawn. Which is more important, SMG or CoD4+Assassin's Creed? How do we weight the importance of Halo 3 for the 360's October software sales, since it had come out only 5 days before the month began? What about other 360 games, such as Orange Box and Ace Combat and PGR4? Other Wii software such as Mario and Sonic?

There's no way to weight this precisely equally, and Eugene is simply going to drown the conversation in statistical minutae to obfuscate. I'm just going to state the three key points one more time:

1) The PS3 software compared to 360 software in Europe is selling at a near 2:1 clip relative to install base, while the Wii software has been selling at a 1.8:1 clip, for the last 4 weeks

2) In America, the 360 software market was 3-5 percent higher than their hardware marketshare last month, and it looks likely that trend has continued (again, based on the fact that Microsoft opted NOT to comment on the issue, it's likely they did not outsell PS3/Wii software combined, and thus have something like 47-50 percent software marketshare compared to 45-47 percent hardware marketshare)

3) According to Ioi, the Wii has outsold the 360's worldwide software totals for 4 weeks running, and it hasn't even been very close (which is to say, even assuming Ioi has made significant percentage errors, it's unlikely the 360 has sold more).

If the 360 were a software selling behemoth that could not possibly be matched, this wouldn't be happening. As a last point, consider that the current wordwide hardware marketshare looks like this:

1) Wii 42.8
2) 360 38.2
3) PS3: 19.0

This week, worldwide software marketshare looked like this:

1) Wii: 44.8
2) 360: 33.8
3) PS3: 21.4

Even granting that Ioi may be off by some percentage (the EU software sales are quite new, after all), and even granting that the last four weeks may have been particularly good for the Wii, as Eugene has claimed, the fact that the Wii is able to more than compete for software marketshare is telling. If the 360 is really an unstoppable software behemoth, should it ever look like this? Particularly at Christmas, the period with the highest software sales for the year worldwide? I stand by my claim that the 360 has, at best, a 5-10 percent advantage in total software sales per-system compared to the Wii, and probably even less when compared to the PS3, worldwide. Does that mean the 360 sells tons of games? Yes. Is it putting the Wii and PS3 to shame? Absolutely not, and that's really the central point of this entire thread. The difference in software totals/hardware totals really isn't all that big worldwide. For any of the three systems.

I think Eugene's point is: He believes that Mario Galaxy, out in November, is an outlier, a massive game (True) that temporarily raised Wii's software sales (Debatable).

Other people are saying that with Assassins Creed and CoD 4 being released in the same time, the massive game boost the Wii would get with Galaxy is countered because of 2 rather large games in November. I didn't check all the numbers, but if they sold more per console than Galaxy, then it's likely Eugene is overestimating Galaxy's power, or underestimating those 2, as they aren't what you would call Throwaway games.

The overall point of this thread: Per System Wii software sales, according to NPD, are approximately comparable to Xbox360 Software sales, and between Oct/November, the difference lessened. Whether that is a games effect, or because Wii took up a larger marketshare is another discussion point.

Also, apparently because I find most Xbox360 owners have a persecution complex bigger than fur fetishists, he feels this is bashing the 360. Dude, the system is proving itself over and over as a solid place for games, sometimes in ways that you didn't expect (Before PS3 launched, try telling a Playstation fan that their Uber system will run most games worse than the Xbox). Oh furries, how fun you are to mock.

I can't maintain a train of thought.. hey a squirrel!

Since I have had trouble being concise thus far in this thread, I highly recommend that everyone examine the bolded sentence above. It's the key point in this thread, and the main piece of evidence my other discussion points revolve around. 

If the 360 had less than 50 percent hardware for many months -- slowly dwindling to 40 percent, which is probably where they will be around mid-year 2008 -- and still maintained a majority marketshare for software, that would be impressive. That would show it really was selling software at a profoundly greater pace than either the PS3 or Wii (specifically, it would be selling software at exactly 1.5x the speed of the other two consoles combined). 

The fact that the 360 ceded software and hardware majority in the exact same month tells us that it may be selling software a bit better, but not at some profound, unmatchable level. Compared to its hardware marketshare, the 360 is maintaining a near-identical software marketshare. That's good! It sells software well. But it is not an unmatchable machine.  

 We understand his point. The problme is my analysis includes October, which was notably Mario Galaxy-free and very heavy on Halo 3 sales (500k the first week of October), Orange Box, Project Gotham Racing 4, Ace Combat 6... 

So if Eugene can apply the "no fair, Wii had a big game in November!" method, why is that method suddenly inappropriate when applied to the 360 in October? Can you name a single game that came out in October on the Wii? I can: Guitar Hero III. And guess what? That came out on the 360 too, in addition to all the other titles I just named.

And yet, the 360 only managed 54 percent software market share, compared to 51 percent hardware marketshare. I say only, because shouldn't it have done way better with all those amazing games, if it really were an unmatchable software seller? It's software marketshare was 3 percent higher! One last time: Is that good? Yes. Does it suggest the 360 sells software at a rate the PS3 or Wii simply cannot match? No. 

Oh, I disagree with Eugene, I just wanted to note his argument as clearly as I can. It's what I do. Even if the argument makes me wonder how he can tie his shoes when it's put plainly, it should be represented and shown fairly so someone can see if they agree or disagree.

Seeing as he was getting flustered, I doubt he saw people were seeing it fairly.

Let me restate your original post Bod of what I believe your saying in a nutshell

"Look at October, Look at how good Microsoft thinks they did in software, but now look at November and see how Microsoft can not make the same claim of software superiority because the Wii did so well in selling software." (in a nutshell , meaning its not a quote)


Im not saying its "not fair game" cause of Mario. Is that fair for a logical arguement of software attach rates ? Probably not. Its like comparing August software sales with September. Its skewed because September was skewed in favor of Xbox obviously. And Halo 3 lost 80% of its sales in October. It was not a diffrenciator.

I am a huge Wii fan but the only game I have been Hyped up about is SSBB, I really expected Mario to be a disapointment(As sunshine was for me) but It just turned out AMAZING... Yes the Xbox has a slightly better attach rate(and most likely always will... but only by a few % points) but it is not really gonna matter in a few years when the 360 fizzles out and become the next gamecube in a year or 2... The Wii's fan base is gonna be so huge we aren't gonna care about attach rates (like the PS2)

 (Let's try to be nice here, Eugene).

You've missed my point. Let me restate it very concisely: look at both October and November. In October, Microsoft had 51 percent hardware market and 54 percent software marketshare. In November, Microsoft had 45-47 percent hardware marketshare, and presumably somewhere around 47-50 percent software marketshare (again, based on the notable absence of any claim that the Xbox outsold PS3/Wii software combined. They've been telling us this for three months: why else would they suddenly switch to: "We're number 1?") 

In other words, the 360's software marketshare is about 3-5 percentage points higher than their hardware marketshare. In America, that is. Again, is that good? Yes, very. Is that so utterly dominating that nobody else compares? No. In the past, the 360 has been called a software behemoth, and people have lamented the (supposedly) awful PS3 and Wii software sales rates. What I am saying here is: the 360 does sell more software, but not A LOT more software. It's not like the Wii would need twice as many hardware units to match the 360's software sales. More likely, IF the Wii ever reaches 40 percent marketshare, and the 360 37 percent marketshare, the software totals will be about equal. Long term, over many months, with no "Mario" games to distort the overall picture.