A quick rebuttal of Don's post:
Sure, with its current success, it's easy to think that the Wii will always stay atop the list of the most popular video game consoles on the market. But at what point will everyone realize that the Wii is a fun device to play when a group of people are around, but quite boring when it's just you?
I think it has already happened with current Wii owners. A quick glance at October 2007 video game sales figures show that the Wii only holds two out of the top ten places with Guitar Hero III and Wii Play.
And if that means nothing else, it tells you one important fact about Wii owners -- they really only play a handful of games and don't bother to buy most of the games that are currently available for the console.
What we have here is a grade-A non sequitur. "Wii owners don't buy single-player games in droves; therefore, the Wii sucks for single player." See the leap in logic here?
Also, note that he's only talking about October - a month when, conveniently, very few strong single-player offerings were released for the Wii. How would he explain, for example, the excellent market performance of Metroid Prime 3 the month before, or Super Mario Galaxy the month after?
As I've said before, the Wii is a novelty device that doesn't have the long-term appeal that the Playstation 3 and Xbox 360 do. Is it a fun console to use? Sure. Are there some good games? You bet. But is there enough of a software offering and downright appeal to entice gamers to buy a Wii over a Playstation 3? Right now, it does. But within the next year, look for Wii sales to slump as the PS3 continues to grow.
And he provides... what evidence for this? That's right: None. Maybe he's just assuming that all of us buy into the Sony Hype Machine just as much as he does, while simultaneously sticking our collective fingers in our ears when someone mentions, "hey, you know, there's always Smash Bros., and Mario Kart, and FF:CC, and..."
The Xbox 360 will take the day
...
Remember those October 2007 sales figures I mentioned? Well if you look at that list again, you'll find that the Xbox 360 accounted for three of those spots and was tied with the Playstation 2 for most games on the chart. By the way, the Playstation 3 didn't even make the cut.
Number of games sold during one month doesn't mean a thing, when the 360 had pretty much half of its strongest releases of the year (Halo 3, Orange Box, Guitar Hero 3) in or immediately before that month. As they say: "there are three types of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
Doesn't this analyst know that in the US alone, the Xbox 360 has sold more units than both the Wii and Playstation 3? And doesn't he know that in worldwide sales, the Playstation is still millions of units behind the Xbox 360?
More statistical fudging. While the second statement is true, the first just plain isn't, according to us here on VGChartz. And even if this site is in error, the statement "in the US alone" is misleading, as the US is the 360's strongest territory by far. Adding in Japan and Others puts the 360 in a... much less favorable light.
More than anything else, this is where Microsoft will be able to take the day. If developers prefer to create games on the Xbox 360 and they find that development on that console is most advantageous, what's the impetus for those same developers to create compelling titles on the Xbox 360? And while this industry is full of game porting, if you currently own an Xbox 360 and more and more games are ported to other consoles, why would you want to buy new hardware to play the same game you can already have on your current machine?
The first question proves nothing, since the industry standard for "HD games" seems to be pretty uniformally cross-platform: the vast majority of HD titles announced nowadays are either PS3/360 or PS3/360/PC. And the second question is just irrelevant to the discussion at hand, since people who currently own 360s aren't going to go out and buy another one.
And in the end, the tried and true trend in gaming will still be true: innovation and advanced technology are great, but it's the games that matter. And when it comes to the variety and appeal of games, Microsoft commands the market.
...except in the case of Japanese-developed games. Or casual games. Or, well, anything but Western action games.
Frankly, I can't believe this analyst gets paid for this crap. A mentally-handicapped fifth grader could effectively rebut this guy.