Montana's back!

Anyways would be interesting to see november's NPD. 360 in the lead and i think Wii will be second this time. December should be really close... This really is the most competitive generation ever!

who said that in this thread?

I really like it how mainly Nintendo fans scream the "Ninty is doomzed' chant over and over again in these threads...quite funny tbh

Give it a rest, it's not doing too hot but it's not doing bad either

MontanaHatchet: Your post actually makes no sense at all. At no point was I desperate to defend Nintendo, or any other company for that matter. I pointed out facts about the 3 systems, even mentioning my 360 gets the most play, my Wii the least.

How about instead of making a blanket statement such as that, you add to the conversation by actually disputing any of the facts I mentioned?

Fact is, you can't dispute any of it. People will talk about how the Wii has fallen, but they either haven't realized the things I pointed out, or they're purposely not mentioning it to sensationalize the other systems. Are you going to tell me you disagree that 70m units sold vs 40 mil units sold isn't a much higher saturation level? And do a comparison of failed systems ratio. Do a little research, you'll find that independant surveys have shown a 54% failure rate for 360's before the latest generation (Which is supposedly fixing it once and for all) and every single replaced system has counted as another sale. (Also proven and acknowledged by Microsoft themselves)

In reality, Microsoft probably has 1/3rd the saturation in the market Nintendo does. And when you look at it from that perspective, of course more 360's and PS3's will be sold over the 3rd place Wii. The Wii has less people left on earth to sell to.

So don't dismiss this argument as a fan boy. Again, I play my Wii the least of the 3 systems. This argument is based purely in fact. At least be honest enough to admit you're just unable to argue the facts, so you fall back on the "Don't defend the dying Nintendo brand! You sound pathetic!" You brought nothing to the table with your post.

R.I.P Wii (dont kill meeeee i jk!)

First off, I said an INDEPENDANT survey: http://www.gamespot.com/news/6215590.html

Second off, Microsoft said "We've sold over x number of systems!" Which was a substantially higher total than the actual number of systems shipped. The reason for the difference was explained by the fact that they were using the refirbished systems as a sold unit when they replaced a RROD system. You can call BS on it, but do a little bit of research. It happened. Beyond that, every single system replaced by 3rd parties, (Best Buy Black Tie protection, Wal-Mart replacement insurance etc..) those without a single doubt count as not only a unit sold, but a unit SHIPPED and sold since the 3rd party replaces the failed unit, not Microsoft.

Microsoft was called out on the "We've sold more units than we've shipped!" and they were the ones that explained it with the replaced systems explanation. So yes, they did acknowledge that.

Call it BS all you want, do some research and you'll see what I'm talking about. Again, this is NOT a fan boy argument. My 360 gets the most play, it's my favorite system of this generation, and hell.. I've bought 6 of them. Only 1 Wii.

But facts can't be argued.

And btw, 66% of 45m would be 30m. And yes, I would think 30m is the real number of working systems "in the wild". But let's say you throw out my argument that RROD systems make for more sales numbers. Let's pretend I didn't make that argument, and all 45m sold work, and let's pretend none of those sales were to 3rd party companies that replaced failed systems under the insurance plans, such as Black Tie by Best Buy, etc.. (Which no matter WHAT you think, can NOT be disputed under any circumstances)

That still leaves 45m vs 76m. The Wii saturation is STILL much higher, therefore there are STILL less people to sell to.

Dispute that.

What fascinates me about this generation is that we now have two systems in the USA trending above PS2 over long periods (three if you include DS). If you annualize trends, 8m is 500k each month Jan-Oct, 1m in Nov, and 2m in Dec. Wii has been over that level what I call "phenomenon level" for the longest time of any console in history. 

Personally, given the Japan just registered a 28k (one week - USA is 2-3x the size of Japan 60k-90k lift is likely) rise for Wii with the Mario / Red Wii system, and that Wii finally has a huge list of compelling software again in November, retailer discounts, the new bundle, and Black Friday you'd be foolish to expect less than a three fold rise in the USA from Oct-Nov. I don't think really four fold is out the question either. Goldeneye / Sonic / DKC / EA Sports Active 2 / Pokepark / Sonic Colors / Michael Jackson is pretty good when you consider its on top of Kirby / Wii Party / Wii Fit Plus / Wii Sports Resort / Just Dance / Just Dance 2 / NSMB Wii / Galaxy 2 which are all still performing fairly well on a weekly basis. Then you have the new bundle, and then you have the hardware discounts for Black Friday.

Even so, Wii has been trending 3m ahead of PS2 for the last 10 consecutive 12 month periods in the USA, and that is almost impossible. I'm expecting Wii to fall to 5.5m-6.5m in the USA pretty soon, from 6.3m-7.8m in 2010, which would put it at PS2 or slightly better in 2005.

It is important to remember that the analogous year for PS2 to Wii, aligned from launch in the USA is 2004. PS2 dropped below 232,000 in the USA twice in 2004, and only sold 4.7m units (although PS2 rebounded to 5.5m in 2005). Wii is going to sell 5m in the USA no matter what in 2010 - and that is the absolute worst case scenario - a 500k Nov and a 1m December, given 3.5m from Jan-Oct. The more likely outcome is 600k - 1m Nov, and 1.8m - 3m December. If you take the middle of those ranges, you get 800k and 2.4m in November / December, which would put 47% of Wii sales for 2010 in Nov-Dec. That may sound like alot but in 2006-2009, Nov-Dec sales were 46% of Wii sales in the USA (12.5m / 27m). December could still end up far higher than 2.4m anyway, given Epic Mickey is coming with heavy promotion from Disney, and price cuts at Walmart to $150 or less are possible again (no ads from Dec are in yet)

I love your posts the Source :}

Very well done. I love numbers, facts and figures.

I hadn't even considered some of the new titles and such. I even pre-ordered Epic Mickey, first game I've purchased since Mario Galaxy 2. And I won a red Wii from a raffle, which will remain closed and in-box. So I DID lie! I DID bs! I forgot.. I don't own 1 Wii, I own 2. :P

They're far from dead.