What fascinates me about this generation is that we now have two systems in the USA trending above PS2 over long periods (three if you include DS). If you annualize trends, 8m is 500k each month Jan-Oct, 1m in Nov, and 2m in Dec. Wii has been over that level what I call "phenomenon level" for the longest time of any console in history.
Personally, given the Japan just registered a 28k (one week - USA is 2-3x the size of Japan 60k-90k lift is likely) rise for Wii with the Mario / Red Wii system, and that Wii finally has a huge list of compelling software again in November, retailer discounts, the new bundle, and Black Friday you'd be foolish to expect less than a three fold rise in the USA from Oct-Nov. I don't think really four fold is out the question either. Goldeneye / Sonic / DKC / EA Sports Active 2 / Pokepark / Sonic Colors / Michael Jackson is pretty good when you consider its on top of Kirby / Wii Party / Wii Fit Plus / Wii Sports Resort / Just Dance / Just Dance 2 / NSMB Wii / Galaxy 2 which are all still performing fairly well on a weekly basis. Then you have the new bundle, and then you have the hardware discounts for Black Friday.
Even so, Wii has been trending 3m ahead of PS2 for the last 10 consecutive 12 month periods in the USA, and that is almost impossible. I'm expecting Wii to fall to 5.5m-6.5m in the USA pretty soon, from 6.3m-7.8m in 2010, which would put it at PS2 or slightly better in 2005.
It is important to remember that the analogous year for PS2 to Wii, aligned from launch in the USA is 2004. PS2 dropped below 232,000 in the USA twice in 2004, and only sold 4.7m units (although PS2 rebounded to 5.5m in 2005). Wii is going to sell 5m in the USA no matter what in 2010 - and that is the absolute worst case scenario - a 500k Nov and a 1m December, given 3.5m from Jan-Oct. The more likely outcome is 600k - 1m Nov, and 1.8m - 3m December. If you take the middle of those ranges, you get 800k and 2.4m in November / December, which would put 47% of Wii sales for 2010 in Nov-Dec. That may sound like alot but in 2006-2009, Nov-Dec sales were 46% of Wii sales in the USA (12.5m / 27m). December could still end up far higher than 2.4m anyway, given Epic Mickey is coming with heavy promotion from Disney, and price cuts at Walmart to $150 or less are possible again (no ads from Dec are in yet)
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
