Seece said:

The problem is though, you say if Kinect hits 20m by next year


I never said that, I said about 13 mill by end of 2011.

20 mill by end of 2012 if it's a hit, at which point the userbase will be 65 - 70 mill. Even less than 33% attach rate.

If the Kinect attach rate went over 50%, it would be hard to consider it the true hardcore console that it currently is. 

You're right, you never said Kinect would have an attach rate of 50%. I used it as a point of reference to show why the 360s userbase would have to grow so much before kinect sold 20m.

And you're right, you never said you predicted 20m by the end of 2011 either, I was referring to THIS statement you made:

"It'll be at 60 mill by the end of 2011, 20 mill is 33%."

You're looking at things from the wrong angle, and you're going to start giving people here the impression that you're a 360 fanboy.

It's quite bizzare people think 20 mill is so out of reach for Kinect.

It has the current 45 mill userbase to appeal to through it's life, but it has the eventual 100 mill plus Wii owners to appeal to.

Side by side, what is a casual going to find more appealing? Kinect or Wii? there wouldn't be much in it, both have pros and cons but I don't see casuals saying "no wii is miles better".

So how can Wii sell 100 mill plus (eventually) but Kinect can't even appeal to 20% of that audience, heck it doesn't even need to appeal to 20, just 10% with the remaining 10% from the current 360 audience (that'd be less than 25% as of today)

Price cuts will come, more SW will come. Yet Kinect can't possibly appeal to people like the Wii could, why?

I firmly believe Kinect will be around 10m by the end of next holiday season. I'm just saying that 20m is extremely far-fetched from a logical point of view, at least in this time-frame. I don't think its possible until well into 2013 when next-gen is about to roll around.

By your logic, Kinect will be able to draw in 10% of the eventual Wii userbase.  Most studios are starting to co-develop their Wii games for the PS3 now because of Move. Analysis shows that the Move is much more likely to attract Wii users than Kinect is, since its basically a much more precise and HD version of the peripheral they've grown to love. 

But something tells me that if I said Move would eventually sell 25 million units because it'll get 10m from hardcore gamers and 15% of the eventual Wii userbase, you'd throw up a BS flag in favor of the 360. THATS fanboy, not Pro-360.

I  actually agree with you. It's bundle folks, as long as Kinect sells, this game will get there easily.

15% is not 10%, that's an extra 5 mill, but I have no idea how well Move will sell, I'm sure it'll do very well. Stop assuming things and don't tell me your view is right and I have to agree or I'm a fanboy, there is such thing as debate.

Casuals, do not care about graphics or extra precision, they care about the next big thing, and they won't be willing to sell their wii for a more expensive overall purchase for something (a bit more precise) with less games that appeal to them.

They ARE more likely to go to Kinect because.

A) the overall image is more casual friendly, as far as the core line up, it's casual heaven, same can't be said about move.

B) the price, to jump in, is much more reasonable.

C) it's different, not more of the same.

Yeah it's a shame to see that Kinect Adventures will be tracked as a seperate software title, cause it shouldn't. You simply can't buy Kinect without getting this game with it, and you can't buy only the game anywhere, wich means it's simply not a seperate software title and so it shouldn't count. It's like counting the demo disc that comes with Move as a software title...

A) But this contradicts your arguement earlier about Kinect being very Core friendly.

No it doesn't. It can be core and casual friendly, it doesn't have to be strictly either or.

B) The price is only better because of the Arcade version of the 360 being cheaper than any PS3.

Yup, so? Don't care why. All that matters is the fact it IS. That's all that will matter to casuals too.

A Move bundle (that includes a game) PLUS an extra controller for a 2nd person is the same price as the Kinect camera. Factor in a game, and the Move itself it cheaper to jump into.

We're talking about casuals that don't own either console. Fact is, Kinect at $250 is cheaper than PS Move bundle which is what $350? I don't know I havn't checked.

What it will eventually boil down to is what OTHER console Wii owners currently own. They would rather buy the peripheral than purchase an entire other system. Sadly the amount of Wii owners that also own a PS3 or a 360 is roughly the same, with no large margin on either, so it won't make much of a difference here as far as Wii converters go. From a stand-point will it be cheaper for a casual gamer to jump into a 360 and Kinect than a PS3 and Move? Sure... but the problem is that the Wii is still cheaper yet.

C) True, which is why it will appeal to so many people at first, and sell so well for a while. I'm just worried about the fact that its so limited in the types of games it can produce.

They will always come up with new ways to innovate with Kinect, and you know what? After a year of "YOU ARE THE CONTROLLER" they could very well bring out some sort of controller to go with Kinect to make core games more deep. It's not a contradiction or a sign of failure from Kinect, it'll just enhance core gameplay for core fans. That said some brilliant minds are working on Kinect, I have faith they can work around any issues they face.

Some of the more core games like FPS games won't be Kinect compatible or full of features when used with Kinect because of the lack of a controller. This is why I believe it'll draw in a huge crowd of casuals compared to hardcore gamers, and why a 50% attach rate would ultimately lead to the 360 becoming more of a casual console than the hardcore console it is now.

I very much doubt it'll ever get to 50% attach ratio, that's about 35 million. Of which a lot will still be core gamers, you need to ignore the COD and Halo fan/boys on the net hating on Kinect, look at the core 360 gamers here, we're all buying it.

It's the opposite. As long as the game sells, kinect will get there easily.