I firmly believe Kinect will be around 10m by the end of next holiday season. I'm just saying that 20m is extremely far-fetched from a logical point of view, at least in this time-frame. I don't think its possible until well into 2013 when next-gen is about to roll around.
Could I be wrong? Yes, but at least I'm being reasonable in my prediction. If I was anti-360 I'd start saying it'll only sell 3 million this holiday season and 10m lifetime, but I'm more logical than that.
By your logic, Kinect will be able to draw in 10% of the eventual Wii userbase. Most studios are starting to co-develop their Wii games for the PS3 now because of Move. Analysis shows that the Move is much more likely to attract Wii users than Kinect is, since its basically a much more precise and HD version of the peripheral they've grown to love.
But something tells me that if I said Move would eventually sell 25 million units because it'll get 10m from hardcore gamers and 15% of the eventual Wii userbase, you'd throw up a BS flag in favor of the 360. THATS fanboy, not Pro-360.
