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HexenLord on 13 November 2010
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Seece said:
HexenLord said:

I firmly believe Kinect will be around 10m by the end of next holiday season. I'm just saying that 20m is extremely far-fetched from a logical point of view, at least in this time-frame. I don't think its possible until well into 2013 when next-gen is about to roll around.

 

By your logic, Kinect will be able to draw in 10% of the eventual Wii userbase.  Most studios are starting to co-develop their Wii games for the PS3 now because of Move. Analysis shows that the Move is much more likely to attract Wii users than Kinect is, since its basically a much more precise and HD version of the peripheral they've grown to love. 

 

But something tells me that if I said Move would eventually sell 25 million units because it'll get 10m from hardcore gamers and 15% of the eventual Wii userbase, you'd throw up a BS flag in favor of the 360. THATS fanboy, not Pro-360.

15% is not 10%, that's an extra 5 mill, but I have no idea how well Move will sell, I'm sure it'll do very well. Stop assuming things and don't tell me your view is right and I have to agree or I'm a fanboy, there is such thing as debate.

Casuals, do not care about graphics or extra precision, they care about the next big thing, and they won't be willing to sell their wii for a more expensive overall purchase for something (a bit more precise) with less games that appeal to them.

They ARE more likely to go to Kinect because.

A) the overall image is more casual friendly, as far as the core line up, it's casual heaven, same can't be said about move.

B) the price, to jump in, is much more reasonable.

C) it's different, not more of the same.

 

A) But this contradicts your arguement earlier about Kinect being very Core friendly.

B) The price is only better because of the Arcade version of the 360 being cheaper than any PS3. A Move bundle (that includes a game) PLUS an extra controller for a 2nd person is the same price as the Kinect camera. Factor in a game, and the Move itself it cheaper to jump into. What it will eventually boil down to is what OTHER console Wii owners currently own. They would rather buy the peripheral than purchase an entire other system. Sadly the amount of Wii owners that also own a PS3 or a 360 is roughly the same, with no large margin on either, so it won't make much of a difference here as far as Wii converters go. From a stand-point will it be cheaper for a casual gamer to jump into a 360 and Kinect than a PS3 and Move? Sure... but the problem is that the Wii is still cheaper yet.

C) True, which is why it will appeal to so many people at first, and sell so well for a while. I'm just worried about the fact that its so limited in the types of games it can produce. Some of the more core games like FPS games won't be Kinect compatible or full of features when used with Kinect because of the lack of a controller. This is why I believe it'll draw in a huge crowd of casuals compared to hardcore gamers, and why a 50% attach rate would ultimately lead to the 360 becoming more of a casual console than the hardcore console it is now.