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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Kinect Adventures to be a 20 million seller? (I'm dead serious)

Mad55 on 13 November 2010

thats a bit much dude.



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yo_john117 on 13 November 2010
Seece said:

It's quite bizzare people think 20 mill is so out of reach for Kinect.

It has the current 45 mill userbase to appeal to through it's life, but it has the eventual 100 mill plus Wii owners to appeal to.

Side by side, what is a casual going to find more appealing? Kinect or Wii? there wouldn't be much in it, both have pros and cons but I don't see casuals saying "no wii is miles better".

So how can Wii sell 100 mill plus (eventually) but Kinect can't even appeal to 20% of that audience, heck it doesn't even need to appeal to 20, just 10% with the remaining 10% from the current 360 audience (that'd be less than 25% as of today)

Price cuts will come, more SW will come. Yet Kinect can't possibly appeal to people like the Wii could, why?

GTFO of here with your logic



HexenLord on 13 November 2010

Halo 3 probably won't ever selll 20m on the 360, AND ITS THE FLAGSHIP GAME. Saying Kinect is going to sell 20m units is a bit unreasonable. 10m is much more reasonable but the 360s userbase will have to double before that happens.



Seece on 13 November 2010
HexenLord said:

Halo 3 probably won't ever selll 20m on the 360, AND ITS THE FLAGSHIP GAME. Saying Kinect is going to sell 20m units is a bit unreasonable. 10m is much more reasonable but the 360s userbase will have to double before that happens.

So Kinect will basically stop selling mid next holiday season?



 

HexenLord on 13 November 2010
Seece said:
HexenLord said:

Halo 3 probably won't ever selll 20m on the 360, AND ITS THE FLAGSHIP GAME. Saying Kinect is going to sell 20m units is a bit unreasonable. 10m is much more reasonable but the 360s userbase will have to double before that happens.

So Kinect will basically stop selling mid next holiday season?


You know as well as I do that everything that releases sells more in the first week than it does in the second year. Peripherals are a bit different but the same basic idea. The initial rush lasts no more than a fiscal quarter. 

 

At the current rate, MS expects Kinect to have more than a 10% attach rate after the holidays. 20M would put it up to 50% (adjusting for all of the bricked RROD 360s). It'll never hit a 50% attach rate (and if it does, the 360 will no longer be a core console). 25% is reasonable if it appeals enough to casual gamers, meaning the console would have to double its current userbase. 

 

MS will eventually drop the price to $100 and the 360s price will drop again, and Kinect will continue to sell very well for an extended period, but even a logical person should be able to understand that hoping for more than a 25% attach ratio is far too optimistic. Thats wandering into the realm of 'fanboyish'.



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Seece on 13 November 2010
HexenLord said:
Seece said:
HexenLord said:

Halo 3 probably won't ever selll 20m on the 360, AND ITS THE FLAGSHIP GAME. Saying Kinect is going to sell 20m units is a bit unreasonable. 10m is much more reasonable but the 360s userbase will have to double before that happens.

So Kinect will basically stop selling mid next holiday season?


You know as well as I do that everything that releases sells more in the first week than it does in the second year.

 

At the current rate, MS expects Kinect to have more than a 10% attach rate after the holidays. 20M would put it up to 50% (adjusting for all of the bricked RROD 360s). It'll never hit a 50% attach rate (and if it does, the 360 will no longer be a core console). 25% is reasonable if it appeals enough to casual gamers, meaning the console would have to double its current userbase. 

 

Kinda just killed your reasoning right there. And you expect 360 to stop selling completely now? It'll be at 60 mill by the end of 2011, 20 mill is 33%. You say it can't but then you're not looking at it objectivly, that much is pretty obvious.

I bought Kinect, I consider myself a core gamer. 500k bought Kinect in America in 3 days, HW rose about 80k, shave 20 off that for natural holiday boosts (same as Wii) so the bulk of those Kinect sales (over 80%) were core gamers. Core gamers (despite what PS3 fan/boys say on this site) will lap up Kinect.



 

Mr.Metralha on 13 November 2010
Seece said:



Side by side, what is a casual going to find more appealing? Kinect or Wii? there wouldn't be much in it, both have pros and cons but I don't see casuals saying "no wii is miles better".

The software.

 

Right now it is a miles times better. Kinect needs to perform good and developers need to see that in order to develop competent and  new compelling software for it, or at least software that appeal to a very large audience and can't be seen anywhere else.

Right now, Kinect is just a Wii wannabe. Every game on it had a possible adaptation for the Wii.

If such a thing as the  Milo fake tech demo and all its features from E3 2009 was indeed a real game, it would be the Kinect flagship software just like Wii Sports was to the Wiimote, and everyone would be going rampant right now:

"OMG, my milo just learned how to speak french"

"My milo knows some jokes"

"I teached Milo how to sing"

"Milo is in love with my wife"

Stuff like that would indeed be a new paradigm to games, not Kinect Sports or any other present Kinect game.

 

 



HexenLord on 13 November 2010
Seece said:
HexenLord said:
Seece said:
HexenLord said:

Halo 3 probably won't ever selll 20m on the 360, AND ITS THE FLAGSHIP GAME. Saying Kinect is going to sell 20m units is a bit unreasonable. 10m is much more reasonable but the 360s userbase will have to double before that happens.

So Kinect will basically stop selling mid next holiday season?


You know as well as I do that everything that releases sells more in the first week than it does in the second year.

 

At the current rate, MS expects Kinect to have more than a 10% attach rate after the holidays. 20M would put it up to 50% (adjusting for all of the bricked RROD 360s). It'll never hit a 50% attach rate (and if it does, the 360 will no longer be a core console). 25% is reasonable if it appeals enough to casual gamers, meaning the console would have to double its current userbase. 

 

Kinda just killed your reasoning right there. And you expect 360 to stop selling completely now? It'll be at 60 mill by the end of 2011, 20 mill is 33%. You say it can't but then you're not looking at it objectivly, that much is pretty obvious.

I bought Kinect, I consider myself a core gamer. 500k bought Kinect in America in 3 days, HW rose about 80k, shave 20 off that for natural holiday boosts (same as Wii) so the bulk of those Kinect sales (over 80%) were core gamers. Core gamers (despite what PS3 fan/boys say on this site) will lap up Kinect.

 

Your opinion might've let it kill my reasoning. It was in no way a bash at the 360s reliability, so don't use it to discredit what I said. I was using it as a reference to help correct the math a little bit so someone didn't come in here and say that doubling the current userbase would make it 90 million instead of 85 million. We don't need meager arguments like that right now.

 

Core gamers will buy Kinect, but MS is also using it to market to casuals to increase the userbase. As of right now, there aren't any true Core games 'designed specifically for Kinect'. If the Kinect attach rate went over 50%, it would be hard to consider it the true hardcore console that it currently is. 

 

The problem is though, you say if Kinect hits 20m by next year that it'll be at a 33% attach ratio. Yes, thats true, and a 33% attach is completely possible, but its the fact that for Kinect to hit 20m by the end of 2011, it'll have to sell JUST as well as the 360 itself, which is really pushing the envelope a bit. Thats what I call 'fanboyish territory' (and no, I'm not calling you a fanboy). Is it possible that it'll sell nearly as many units THIS holiday season as the 360 console sells? Yes. However its a new peripheral. Its almost inconceivable to expect it to match 360 sells for the entire year next year... which is why I said that the 360 userbase will have to grow MUCH more before Kinect would ever hit 20m.

 

I wasn't being a Sony fanboy or bashing MS/Kinect in any way. I was trying to be reasonable.



dany612 on 13 November 2010
Seece said:
HexenLord said:
Seece said:
HexenLord said:

Halo 3 probably won't ever selll 20m on the 360, AND ITS THE FLAGSHIP GAME. Saying Kinect is going to sell 20m units is a bit unreasonable. 10m is much more reasonable but the 360s userbase will have to double before that happens.

So Kinect will basically stop selling mid next holiday season?


You know as well as I do that everything that releases sells more in the first week than it does in the second year.

 

At the current rate, MS expects Kinect to have more than a 10% attach rate after the holidays. 20M would put it up to 50% (adjusting for all of the bricked RROD 360s). It'll never hit a 50% attach rate (and if it does, the 360 will no longer be a core console). 25% is reasonable if it appeals enough to casual gamers, meaning the console would have to double its current userbase. 

 

Kinda just killed your reasoning right there. And you expect 360 to stop selling completely now? It'll be at 60 mill by the end of 2011, 20 mill is 33%. You say it can't but then you're not looking at it objectivly, that much is pretty obvious.

I bought Kinect, I consider myself a core gamer. 500k bought Kinect in America in 3 days, HW rose about 80k, shave 20 off that for natural holiday boosts (same as Wii) so the bulk of those Kinect sales (over 80%) were core gamers. Core gamers (despite what PS3 fan/boys say on this site) will lap up Kinect.

Aren't you just one BIG XBOX360 fan?
It will never get that high unless it keeps being bundles with the Kinect but even then it's asking for too much since Microsoft could at any time change the bundled game to another.



 

        

Seece on 13 November 2010
HexenLord said:
Seece said:
HexenLord said:
Seece said:
HexenLord said:

Halo 3 probably won't ever selll 20m on the 360, AND ITS THE FLAGSHIP GAME. Saying Kinect is going to sell 20m units is a bit unreasonable. 10m is much more reasonable but the 360s userbase will have to double before that happens.

So Kinect will basically stop selling mid next holiday season?


You know as well as I do that everything that releases sells more in the first week than it does in the second year.

 

At the current rate, MS expects Kinect to have more than a 10% attach rate after the holidays. 20M would put it up to 50% (adjusting for all of the bricked RROD 360s). It'll never hit a 50% attach rate (and if it does, the 360 will no longer be a core console). 25% is reasonable if it appeals enough to casual gamers, meaning the console would have to double its current userbase. 

 

Kinda just killed your reasoning right there. And you expect 360 to stop selling completely now? It'll be at 60 mill by the end of 2011, 20 mill is 33%. You say it can't but then you're not looking at it objectivly, that much is pretty obvious.

I bought Kinect, I consider myself a core gamer. 500k bought Kinect in America in 3 days, HW rose about 80k, shave 20 off that for natural holiday boosts (same as Wii) so the bulk of those Kinect sales (over 80%) were core gamers. Core gamers (despite what PS3 fan/boys say on this site) will lap up Kinect.

 

Your opinion might've let it kill my reasoning. It was in no way a bash at the 360s reliability, so don't use it to discredit what I said. I was using it as a reference to help correct the math a little bit so someone didn't come in here and say that doubling the current userbase would make it 90 million instead of 85 million. We don't need meager arguments like that right now.

 

Core gamers will buy Kinect, but MS is also using it to market to casuals to increase the userbase. As of right now, there aren't any true Core games 'designed specifically for Kinect'. If the Kinect attach rate went over 50%, it would be hard to consider it the true hardcore console that it currently is. 

I never said it would hit 50%, and again, I consider myself a core gamer and I bought Kinect.

The problem is though, you say if Kinect hits 20m by next year


I never said that, I said about 13 mill by end of 2011.


20 mill by end of 2012 if it's a hit, at which point the userbase will be 65 - 70 mill. Even less than 33% attach rate.

that it'll be at a 33% attach ratio. Yes, thats true, and a 33% attach is completely possible, but its the fact that for Kinect to hit 20m by the end of 2011, it'll have to sell JUST as well as the 360 itself, which is really pushing the envelope a bit. Thats what I call 'fanboyish territory' (and no, I'm not calling you a fanboy). Is it possible that it'll sell nearly as many units THIS holiday season as the 360 console sells? Yes. However its a new peripheral. Its almost inconceivable to expect it to match 360 sells for the entire year next year... which is why I said that the 360 userbase will have to grow MUCH more before Kinect would ever hit 20m.

 

I wasn't being a Sony fanboy or bashing MS/Kinect in any way. I was trying to be reasonable.