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HexenLord on 13 November 2010
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Seece said:
HexenLord said:
Seece said:
HexenLord said:

Halo 3 probably won't ever selll 20m on the 360, AND ITS THE FLAGSHIP GAME. Saying Kinect is going to sell 20m units is a bit unreasonable. 10m is much more reasonable but the 360s userbase will have to double before that happens.

So Kinect will basically stop selling mid next holiday season?


You know as well as I do that everything that releases sells more in the first week than it does in the second year.

 

At the current rate, MS expects Kinect to have more than a 10% attach rate after the holidays. 20M would put it up to 50% (adjusting for all of the bricked RROD 360s). It'll never hit a 50% attach rate (and if it does, the 360 will no longer be a core console). 25% is reasonable if it appeals enough to casual gamers, meaning the console would have to double its current userbase. 

 

Kinda just killed your reasoning right there. And you expect 360 to stop selling completely now? It'll be at 60 mill by the end of 2011, 20 mill is 33%. You say it can't but then you're not looking at it objectivly, that much is pretty obvious.

I bought Kinect, I consider myself a core gamer. 500k bought Kinect in America in 3 days, HW rose about 80k, shave 20 off that for natural holiday boosts (same as Wii) so the bulk of those Kinect sales (over 80%) were core gamers. Core gamers (despite what PS3 fan/boys say on this site) will lap up Kinect.

 

Your opinion might've let it kill my reasoning. It was in no way a bash at the 360s reliability, so don't use it to discredit what I said. I was using it as a reference to help correct the math a little bit so someone didn't come in here and say that doubling the current userbase would make it 90 million instead of 85 million. We don't need meager arguments like that right now.

 

Core gamers will buy Kinect, but MS is also using it to market to casuals to increase the userbase. As of right now, there aren't any true Core games 'designed specifically for Kinect'. If the Kinect attach rate went over 50%, it would be hard to consider it the true hardcore console that it currently is. 

 

The problem is though, you say if Kinect hits 20m by next year that it'll be at a 33% attach ratio. Yes, thats true, and a 33% attach is completely possible, but its the fact that for Kinect to hit 20m by the end of 2011, it'll have to sell JUST as well as the 360 itself, which is really pushing the envelope a bit. Thats what I call 'fanboyish territory' (and no, I'm not calling you a fanboy). Is it possible that it'll sell nearly as many units THIS holiday season as the 360 console sells? Yes. However its a new peripheral. Its almost inconceivable to expect it to match 360 sells for the entire year next year... which is why I said that the 360 userbase will have to grow MUCH more before Kinect would ever hit 20m.

 

I wasn't being a Sony fanboy or bashing MS/Kinect in any way. I was trying to be reasonable.