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HexenLord on 13 November 2010
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Seece said:
HexenLord said:

Halo 3 probably won't ever selll 20m on the 360, AND ITS THE FLAGSHIP GAME. Saying Kinect is going to sell 20m units is a bit unreasonable. 10m is much more reasonable but the 360s userbase will have to double before that happens.

So Kinect will basically stop selling mid next holiday season?


You know as well as I do that everything that releases sells more in the first week than it does in the second year. Peripherals are a bit different but the same basic idea. The initial rush lasts no more than a fiscal quarter. 

 

At the current rate, MS expects Kinect to have more than a 10% attach rate after the holidays. 20M would put it up to 50% (adjusting for all of the bricked RROD 360s). It'll never hit a 50% attach rate (and if it does, the 360 will no longer be a core console). 25% is reasonable if it appeals enough to casual gamers, meaning the console would have to double its current userbase. 

 

MS will eventually drop the price to $100 and the 360s price will drop again, and Kinect will continue to sell very well for an extended period, but even a logical person should be able to understand that hoping for more than a 25% attach ratio is far too optimistic. Thats wandering into the realm of 'fanboyish'.