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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS3 to outship the X360 by the end of the 4th quarter? Oh yeh

nightsurge said:

I really want to know what markets the PS3 has expanded to over the last few years that the 360 hasn't.  Those are seriously helping the PS3 right now and is the only way I can see MS and Sony shipping the same amount of consoles this last quarter.  Otherwise Sony would HAVE to have been overshipping somewhere because by the traditional markets the 360 was way over the PS3 and even had to dip into January and February shipments over the holidays.

MS really needs to expand into these other markets to keep the business competitive.

EDIT:  Either that or MS didn't count the Jan-Feb shipment help and will have a much larger Q4 than normal.

Dude soooo many african nations and asian countries MS doesnt even think twice about Sony is shipping too. There should be an other for african, south american, middle east countries. If they cant track em accurately lump em together so we know that is the one that is higher for adjustments but we can rely on the others.

 

It would make more sense wouldnt it?



 

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scat398 said:
kingofwale said:

i find that people claiming 'shortages' and 'overships' absolutely ridiculous.

are you going to tell me only 400K xboxs are sitting on the shelf WORLDWIDE while 1.4 million PS3 are doing the same??

Come on!!!

 

those terms have always been used for people to justify their inaccurate numbers instead of just doing adjustment. But hey, whatever float their boats.

Actually the expanded base of countries that sony ships too supports the numbers above.  It's not an overship or shortage issue.  Sony's pipeline of countries that need supply is larger than that of MS.


Why does xbox not push into other markets? is it that Sony has more coming in and out of those other area's  and wouldn't make buisness sense for MS to do so? 

Just a question. Maybe I should make a thread about it but I would just get a few answers and it would be more of a waste of time.



GameAnalyser said:

its just the price of PS3 which can be the defining factor. Even at current price its holding up to the sales of its cheaper competitors which is impressive. Just expecting a price-cut in(Oct-Nov) the 4th quarter that can bring a large boost on EMAA and also Americas to some extent thus making the outship highly probable.

Well it's not actually keeping up with the Wii, and the 360 is the same price. Patner said that over 80% of people get the Elite 360 over the Arcade version, but with a $300 Kinect bundle, that might still steal sales. Still either way, most 360's sold cost the same as a PS3, so a price cut on the HD consoles should affect both equally.

So outshiping... Just like every other year on VGC, not likely, not with Kinect doing what it's doing.



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Michael-5 said:
ethomaz said:
Michael-5 said:
ethomaz said:
 

Are you kidding?  Because after adjustments PS3 just lost 4-5 weeks in the holidays (and two in Reach and Kinect launch)... won everthing else in 2010.

PS3 was above 360 when they launched Move and before Kinect. Post Kinect, 360 was ontop, and that was the better selling portion of 2010. After all 360 had 2 million selling weeks, PS3 had zero and wasn't even close.

To be fair...

Q1 2010 (Jan-Mar): 3,293,806 (PS3) - 2,222,768 (360) = 1,071,038 lead for PS3
Q2 2010 (Apr-Jun): 2,235,719 (PS3) - 1,691,876 (360) = 543,843 lead for PS3
Q3 2010 (Jul-Set): 2,644,152 (360) - 2,370,451 (PS3) = 273,701 lead for 360 (Slim effect)
Q4 2010 (Oct-Dec): 7,047,842 (360) - 6,543,553 (PS3) = 504,289 lead for 360 (Slim Kinect effect)

 Even with 2 million week in holidays the 360 lead was near 500k... and the marjority weeks of Q4 2010 was won by PS3 because 360 made it 500k most in December... sumary of weeks won by 360 in 2010:

Week Ending 19th Jun 2010 by 1,041 (tied?)
Week Ending 26th Jun 2010 by 54,996
Week Ending 03rd Jul 2010 by 26,998
Week Ending 10th Jul 2010 by 1,985 (tied?)
Week Ending 17th Jul 2010 by 162,437
Week Ending 24th Jul 2010 by 71,964
Week Ending 31st Jul 2010 by 7,558 (tied?)
Week Ending 07th Aug 2010 by 24,066
Week Ending 21st Aug 2010 by 6,192 (tied?)
Week Ending 28th Aug 2010 by 1,986 (tied?)
Week Ending 04th Sep 2010 by 2,343 (tied?)
Week Ending 11th Sep 2010 by 6,000 (tied?)
Week Ending 18th Sep 2010 by 63,632
Week Ending 06th Nov 2010 by 45,875
Week Ending 13th Nov 2010 by 140,363
Week Ending 20th Nov 2010 by 106,307
Week Ending 27th Nov 2010 by 117,676
Week Ending 04th Dec 2010 by 43,009
Week Ending 11th Dec 2010 by 71,305
Week Ending 18th Dec 2010 by 162,693
Week Ending 25th Dec 2010 by 181,363

21 of 52 weeks win by 360 but just 14 with signifcative margin... at the end 360 outsold PS3 just 700k in second semester and 500k in holidays.

Of course... these cenario is with no more adjustments... but PS3 was under 100k in UK in 2010 VGC data.

So look at what you posted. Post E3 2010 the 360 outsold the PS3 21/29 weeks. The weeks PS3 beat MS were the month and a half where PS3 released the Move, but Kinect was unreleased, a week in August when Sony released a limited White PS3 in Japan along with 2 exclusives there, and the very last week in the year, after christmas, when MS started experiencing shortages.

Profound shortages, MS has to tell retailers to sell their January-February stock in order to just meet holiday demands. How profound were these shortages still experienced by up to last week data? Well in 2010 Sony shipped 2.30 million more PS3 units, despite only selling 0.79 million more units.

Hence, shipped units are misleading! Obviously MS being experiencing shortages from unexpectedly strong holiday sales are affecting the shipped console difference.

So just like how PS3 was outselling 360 from September 2009-June 2010 due to the Slim PS3, I expect the 360 to outsell the PS3 (so long as supply can meet demand) from November 2010 to at least E3 2011.

The facts you gave support this. 700k more units sold in 2010 since the 360 Slim, and it could have realistically been 800k had shortages not been seen. 360 outselling PS3 on all weeks except for a temporary period after Move, but before Kinect. etc.

I've made my point.

Bold1 : Prove me that, I'm still waiting for a link of several source complaining about "profound" X360 shortages

Bold 2: so you're basically saying that shortages are responsible of 100k units less :) glad to see you're finally being rational  dude. :)

By the way, PS3 "is not even close to 1m this year", yea, but I still think it's undertracked, 300k on shelves for Microsoft and 1.6m for Sony, sorry I'm still not buying that thing.

But look at it differently: Those are the two weeks x360 was over 1m:

Console Weekly (change) Total
Wii 1,553,206 ( 8%) 81,480,530
DS 1,402,018 ( 15%) 141,723,975
X360 1,060,849 ( 38%) 48,801,570
PS3 898,156 ( 28%) 44,857,004
PSP 502,919 ( 14%) 64,503,899
PS2 227,171 ( 16%) 141,220,806
Total 5,644,319( 19%)  
Console Weekly (change) Total
DS 1,588,618 ( 13%) 143,312,593
Wii 1,563,622 ( 1%) 83,044,152
X360 1,114,283 ( 5%) 49,915,853
PS3 932,920 ( 4%) 45,789,924
PSP 560,041 ( 11%) 65,063,940
PS2 261,549 ( 15%) 141,482,355
Total 6,021,033( 7%)  

"PS3 not even close to it" Oh, 100k and 70k is not close? Well look at the two weeks where PS3 was over 1m in 2009:

Console Weekly (change) Total
DS 1,792,776 ( 17%) 119,792,235
Wii 1,757,136 ( 18%) 62,459,336
PS3 1,024,938 ( 37%) 30,341,553
X360 674,272 ( 26%) 35,732,817
PSP 558,321 ( 22%) 55,015,953
PS2 286,225 ( 20%) 136,919,129
Total 6,093,668( 22%)
Console Weekly (change) Total
Wii 1,963,418 ( 12%) 64,422,754
DS 1,893,089 ( 6%) 121,685,324
PS3 1,006,234 (-2%) 31,347,787
X360 741,510 ( 10%) 36,474,327
PSP 638,030 ( 14%) 55,653,983
PS2 283,568 (-1%) 137,202,697
Total 6,525,849( 7%)

"That's" what I call not even close to it. :) And if PS3 keep being outsold by X360 by less than 20k per week, not to be happy about, still won't match the 40/70k gap they had last year, fovarable to PS3. :)



Michael-5 said:
GameAnalyser said:

its just the price of PS3 which can be the defining factor. Even at current price its holding up to the sales of its cheaper competitors which is impressive. Just expecting a price-cut in(Oct-Nov) the 4th quarter that can bring a large boost on EMAA and also Americas to some extent thus making the outship highly probable.

Well it's not actually keeping up with the Wii, and the 360 is the same price. Patner said that over 80% of people get the Elite 360 over the Arcade version, but with a $300 Kinect bundle, that might still steal sales. Still either way, most 360's sold cost the same as a PS3, so a price cut on the HD consoles should affect both equally.

So outshiping... Just like every other year on VGC, not likely, not with Kinect doing what it's doing.

Current Kinect bundles are not going to sell equally across all the regions  unless the 4GB constraint(aimed for casual gamers) is removed. No Kinect  bundles other than  4GB exist so far. MS would wait until the 4th quarter to reduce the price for that bundle. By then its important they release 250 GB kinect bundle at current price or otherwise PS3 Move bundle would be a better option for casual and hardcore with its reduced price. 80% of people as u mentioned are
comprising only from Americas and it's true Elite 360 is the best buy there. EMAA and Japan are already owned by ps3.



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4k1x3r said:
Michael-5 said:
ethomaz said:
Michael-5 said:
ethomaz said:
 

Are you kidding?  Because after adjustments PS3 just lost 4-5 weeks in the holidays (and two in Reach and Kinect launch)... won everthing else in 2010.

PS3 was above 360 when they launched Move and before Kinect. Post Kinect, 360 was ontop, and that was the better selling portion of 2010. After all 360 had 2 million selling weeks, PS3 had zero and wasn't even close.

To be fair...

Q1 2010 (Jan-Mar): 3,293,806 (PS3) - 2,222,768 (360) = 1,071,038 lead for PS3
Q2 2010 (Apr-Jun): 2,235,719 (PS3) - 1,691,876 (360) = 543,843 lead for PS3
Q3 2010 (Jul-Set): 2,644,152 (360) - 2,370,451 (PS3) = 273,701 lead for 360 (Slim effect)
Q4 2010 (Oct-Dec): 7,047,842 (360) - 6,543,553 (PS3) = 504,289 lead for 360 (Slim Kinect effect)

 Even with 2 million week in holidays the 360 lead was near 500k... and the marjority weeks of Q4 2010 was won by PS3 because 360 made it 500k most in December... sumary of weeks won by 360 in 2010:

Week Ending 19th Jun 2010 by 1,041 (tied?)
Week Ending 26th Jun 2010 by 54,996
Week Ending 03rd Jul 2010 by 26,998
Week Ending 10th Jul 2010 by 1,985 (tied?)
Week Ending 17th Jul 2010 by 162,437
Week Ending 24th Jul 2010 by 71,964
Week Ending 31st Jul 2010 by 7,558 (tied?)
Week Ending 07th Aug 2010 by 24,066
Week Ending 21st Aug 2010 by 6,192 (tied?)
Week Ending 28th Aug 2010 by 1,986 (tied?)
Week Ending 04th Sep 2010 by 2,343 (tied?)
Week Ending 11th Sep 2010 by 6,000 (tied?)
Week Ending 18th Sep 2010 by 63,632
Week Ending 06th Nov 2010 by 45,875
Week Ending 13th Nov 2010 by 140,363
Week Ending 20th Nov 2010 by 106,307
Week Ending 27th Nov 2010 by 117,676
Week Ending 04th Dec 2010 by 43,009
Week Ending 11th Dec 2010 by 71,305
Week Ending 18th Dec 2010 by 162,693
Week Ending 25th Dec 2010 by 181,363

21 of 52 weeks win by 360 but just 14 with signifcative margin... at the end 360 outsold PS3 just 700k in second semester and 500k in holidays.

Of course... these cenario is with no more adjustments... but PS3 was under 100k in UK in 2010 VGC data.

So look at what you posted. Post E3 2010 the 360 outsold the PS3 21/29 weeks. The weeks PS3 beat MS were the month and a half where PS3 released the Move, but Kinect was unreleased, a week in August when Sony released a limited White PS3 in Japan along with 2 exclusives there, and the very last week in the year, after christmas, when MS started experiencing shortages.

Profound shortages, MS has to tell retailers to sell their January-February stock in order to just meet holiday demands. How profound were these shortages still experienced by up to last week data? Well in 2010 Sony shipped 2.30 million more PS3 units, despite only selling 0.79 million more units.

Hence, shipped units are misleading! Obviously MS being experiencing shortages from unexpectedly strong holiday sales are affecting the shipped console difference.

So just like how PS3 was outselling 360 from September 2009-June 2010 due to the Slim PS3, I expect the 360 to outsell the PS3 (so long as supply can meet demand) from November 2010 to at least E3 2011.

The facts you gave support this. 700k more units sold in 2010 since the 360 Slim, and it could have realistically been 800k had shortages not been seen. 360 outselling PS3 on all weeks except for a temporary period after Move, but before Kinect. etc.

I've made my point.

Bold1 : Prove me that, I'm still waiting for a link of several source complaining about "profound" X360 shortages

Bold 2: so you're basically saying that shortages are responsible of 100k units less :) glad to see you're finally being rational  dude. :)

By the way, PS3 "is not even close to 1m this year", yea, but I still think it's undertracked, 300k on shelves for Microsoft and 1.6m for Sony, sorry I'm still not buying that thing.

But look at it differently: Those are the two weeks x360 was over 1m:

Console Weekly (change) Total
Wii 1,553,206 ( 8%) 81,480,530
DS 1,402,018 ( 15%) 141,723,975
X360 1,060,849 ( 38%) 48,801,570
PS3 898,156 ( 28%) 44,857,004
PSP 502,919 ( 14%) 64,503,899
PS2 227,171 ( 16%) 141,220,806
Total 5,644,319( 19%)  
Console Weekly (change) Total
DS 1,588,618 ( 13%) 143,312,593
Wii 1,563,622 ( 1%) 83,044,152
X360 1,114,283 ( 5%) 49,915,853
PS3 932,920 ( 4%) 45,789,924
PSP 560,041 ( 11%) 65,063,940
PS2 261,549 ( 15%) 141,482,355
Total 6,021,033( 7%)  

"PS3 not even close to it" Oh, 100k and 70k is not close? Well look at the two weeks where PS3 was over 1m in 2009:

Console Weekly (change) Total
DS 1,792,776 ( 17%) 119,792,235
Wii 1,757,136 ( 18%) 62,459,336
PS3 1,024,938 ( 37%) 30,341,553
X360 674,272 ( 26%) 35,732,817
PSP 558,321 ( 22%) 55,015,953
PS2 286,225 ( 20%) 136,919,129
Total 6,093,668( 22%)
Console Weekly (change) Total
Wii 1,963,418 ( 12%) 64,422,754
DS 1,893,089 ( 6%) 121,685,324
PS3 1,006,234 (-2%) 31,347,787
X360 741,510 ( 10%) 36,474,327
PSP 638,030 ( 14%) 55,653,983
PS2 283,568 (-1%) 137,202,697
Total 6,525,849( 7%)

"That's" what I call not even close to it. :) And if PS3 keep being outsold by X360 by less than 20k per week, not to be happy about, still won't match the 40/70k gap they had last year, fovarable to PS3. :)


Bold1: First of all, this was a comment towards ethomaz, and he posted the data (it's quoted above me) of all the weeks 360 outsold PS3 in 2010. By counting, you can see it's 21/29 weeks for 2010.

As for profound shortages, turn on your exbox and turn on Major Nelson. He is a representative for MS, and he said at earliest February 2010. Originally he said shortages will be experience for January and february. If you don't have an X-Box, well :P

Bold2: In 2010. PS3 outsold the 360 by around 100k I beleive for the week ending in January 1st 2011 (the first week 360 saw shortages). Had there been no shortages, 360 would have at least matched PS3 sales. I say this because every week prior to that, post Kinect, the 360 was outselling the PS3 by about 20% (before adjustments it was 30-40%), so matching PS3 sales is a reasonable minimum

For my "Not even close comment" PS3 data was adjusted since I last looked at December sales. Originally VGC posted:

Okay I'm having trouble clicking past my table, so just refer to the table at the end of this post for the original numbers VGC posted.

150k is pretty far from 1 million, but 57.6k isn't. After the adjustment PS3 got a lot closer, but still. In 2009, PS3's million selling weeks were marginally over 1 million, this year 360 got 60, and 114k over a million.

BTW, I think in total, shortages on the 360 for December/January probably cut 250-350k in 360 sales, most of which were lost in the weeks ending January 1st, and 8th. Weekly data now is probably unaffected by shortages, and if they still are affecting sales, then at most 5-15k are lost in the week. 360 should be selling above PS3, but by no more then 5-10%, pending exclusive release.

I don't expect the 360 to be outselling the PS3 by as much as the PS3 was outselling the 360 in 2010. My only point was that shipped figures can be misleading. Since PS3 has shipped 1.3 million units more then the 360, and is selling about on par, or slightly worst then the 360, then the only rational explanation for this is the one MS themselves anounced. Shortages.

If you simply followed shipped figures, you might be lead to think PS3 is closing the gap, which would have been true pre-Kinect, but it's not true, and this HD war will rage on.

360 PS3
1,189.3 852.4
1,257.2

942.4

 



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GameAnalyser said:
Michael-5 said:
GameAnalyser said:

its just the price of PS3 which can be the defining factor. Even at current price its holding up to the sales of its cheaper competitors which is impressive. Just expecting a price-cut in(Oct-Nov) the 4th quarter that can bring a large boost on EMAA and also Americas to some extent thus making the outship highly probable.

Well it's not actually keeping up with the Wii, and the 360 is the same price. Patner said that over 80% of people get the Elite 360 over the Arcade version, but with a $300 Kinect bundle, that might still steal sales. Still either way, most 360's sold cost the same as a PS3, so a price cut on the HD consoles should affect both equally.

So outshiping... Just like every other year on VGC, not likely, not with Kinect doing what it's doing.

Current Kinect bundles are not going to sell equally across all the regions  unless the 4GB constraint(aimed for casual gamers) is removed. No Kinect  bundles other than  4GB exist so far. MS would wait until the 4th quarter to reduce the price for that bundle. By then its important they release 250 GB kinect bundle at current price or otherwise PS3 Move bundle would be a better option for casual and hardcore with its reduced price. 80% of people as u mentioned are
comprising only from Americas and it's true Elite 360 is the best buy there. EMAA and Japan are already owned by ps3.

They have bundled the 250 gig 360 with Kinect too, it's not just a Kinect/Arcade 360 bundle like you say. It's $400 just like the PS3/Move bundle.

As for the rest, I have no clue what your talking about. If they reduced the price of the PS3 Move bundle, wouldn't MS follow suite with it's respective Kinect bundles? Thus the price of the mojority of 360's sold will match the price of PS3's.

Wait what region are you from? I believe in some European Regions, the PS3 Move bundle is sold at $350 US dollars. Maybe where you live, there is no 360 Elite Kinect bundle. Still why do you say the PS3 Move bundle is cheaper then the MS Kinect bundle? Thats not true in Americas, UK, and most of Europe, which comprimise most 360 selling regions.



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They don't even sell 4GB Arcades in my country. Is that a good enough indicator of shortages for people here?



Tease.

Squilliam said:

They don't even sell 4GB Arcades in my country. Is that a good enough indicator of shortages for people here?


They don't sell any move bundles here, is that enough to say there is major shortages?



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Squilliam said:

They don't even sell 4GB Arcades in my country. Is that a good enough indicator of shortages for people here?


surely they sell them with Kinect, that is the only way they are being sold in australia. We dont have arcade standalone 4gb's here.



 

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