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Forums - Sales Discussion - Gran Turismo 5 will fail to sell...

 

Gran Turismo 5 will fail to sell...

Best Selling Gran Turismo 939 37.95%
 
2nd Best Selling Gran Turismo 494 19.97%
 
3rd Best Selling Gran Turismo 389 15.72%
 
4th Best Selling Gran Turismo 116 4.69%
 
The Worst Selling Gran Turismo 536 21.67%
 
Total:2,474
Michael-5 on 22 November 2010

This won't lead to a ban..

Settle down you two.



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Blue3 on 22 November 2010
Michael-5 said:

This won't lead to a ban..

Settle down you two.


Why would it, other then your insinuations no one has a problem.  You two can't stand some one calling you out on your BS can you. 

He is your buddy, maybe expalin to him how to use numbers not just cherry pick. 



Jay520 on 22 November 2010

I predict: 

NA: 3.0mil 

JP: 1.5mil

Eu: 5.5mil

WW: 10mil 

I predict heavy bundling. GT5will be the only GT game for the next 3 years I think. I don't think the PS4 will come out before fall 2013. That gives GT5 enough time to hit 10mil.

 

 

I'll come back to this thread in 2013 when GT5 finally reaches these numbers lol



Ginyu on 22 November 2010
Blue3 said:
Ginyu said:
 

So ?

So obviously you are missing the obvious, an opening of lets be optimistic and say opens to 550,000, itd need a 4x multiplyer to get to 2.2 million.

Even the original Gran Turismo didnt have a multiplyer that high, 3.77.

The multiplyer for GT2 and GT4 was less than 2. GT3's multiplyer was 3.35.

But GT5 a sequel on a PS3 where a big name sequel is lucky to even double its opening week, is gonna have a 4 plus multiplyer....more than even the original GT. Well.....thats obviously not gonna happen.

So if GT5 opens to 550,000 and has the same legs as GT4 and the usual game in Japan it will be lucky to hit 1 million.

So ?

Back then FF was a premier game in a rpg dominated market, it in every way should have out sold GT.  But FF13 is far from great.  Would be no surprise to see GT out sale FF this gen given the unfortunete fall from grace FF has gone through. 

Yes, yes it would be a surprise the FF13 which has "fallen from grace" outsold GT4's lifetime sales in its first week, and has also sold as much as GT3. The second best selling GT game. FF12 was where it felt from grace. GT5 wont sell close to what FF13 sold in its first week.

Quite safe. GT5 will be the game to get for PS3 buyers year or two down the line, no racer will challange that.  FF13 became a afterthough not long after release.

You are also forgetting that they have sold over 21 million PS1 and over 23 million PS2s in Japan compared to the measly 5.8 million PS3. Theyve been selling 1-2 million PS3s in Japan a year so by 2012 they probably wont have even sold 10 million PS3's.

But GT5 is gonna sell 2.2 million? less than 1 in 5 PS3 users are gonna own GT5 when more than 10 in 1 Japanese PS2 owners owned GT3 & 4?

Lowest Japan sellin GT is 1.26 highest is 2.55

Average(all 4)  is 1.855

First of a gen GTs sales in Japan are 1.86 and 2.55 - average 2.2m

Thats how you got your estimate? i hope not, firstly GT sold 2.55 million yes but it was the first game, the second dropped considerabley, the third did a bit better because like FFX and MGS2 it came out really early in the PS2 life when not much was available which is why GT4 dropped so much.

Without GT1 the average is only 1.6, and its not even selling that. With preorders of just 260,000 and a estimate of  500,000-550,000 it is never hitting 2 million.


You posted no evidence, you just cherry picked numbers that best support your view.

 If anything unbiased evidence aka math points to final number being closer to 2m then 1m.

 As opposed to you who thinks its gonna have 4 times legs, double what GT4 had, and its gonna outsell FF13 though its never been as popular as FF, and its gonna have a attach rate of less than 1 in 5 whereas GT3 had a attach rate of 1 in 12.

 You already predicted 800,000 when its gonna be 500,000 which is about 65% of the 800,000 so if the total was 65% of your LTD estimate thatd be 1.4 million. Its not hitting that either but its at least somewhat realistic.

 

 







Ginyu on 22 November 2010
CGI-Quality said:
Ginyu said:

P.S. According to VGChartz, GT4 sold 1.26 million in Japan

 

And also according to Vgchartz it sold 1.1 million.

http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/sales/887/gran-turismo-4/

Anyway has anyone seen the Gamespot hour long video on GT5, ive only seen 10 mins myself but they certainly dont sound too enthusiastic for it. The pretty slow loading even after full install, having to install the same thing twice, only premium cars having interior views, only being able to take photos of premium cars, the car he was driving at the start he commented looked a bit ragged and it didnt look all that.

So its reviews could end up being nothing special at all. 

You'll spin anything to favor an argument, especially against this game. He said you'll see a few load times, but didn't consider it a game breaker. He even mentions things returning from previous GTs that he's excited about.

If you're gonna tell a story, at least tell it accurately.

I liked how picked out the weakest point a made, i never said they said it was slow. What they did however was load the game it took awhile and one of them said something like "and this is after the install?"

But what about the rest? no interior view for most cars 75% according to Michael, even need for Speed Shift could do that. You cant take pictures of 75% of the cars.

The biggest thing about GT5 was supposed to be the graphics but the guy said he saw ragged lines and they "werent all that" not exactly twisting at all.



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Ginyu on 22 November 2010
Blue3 said:
Michael-5 said:

This won't lead to a ban..

Settle down you two.


Why would it, other then your insinuations no one has a problem.  You two can't stand some one calling you out on your BS can you. 

He is your buddy, maybe expalin to him how to use numbers not just cherry pick. 

This just doesnt make any sense to me, i mentioned how its preorders are 500,000. GT2 and GT4 didnt double its opening. Most big PS3 games like FF13, Yakuza,  MGS dont even double their opening. RE5 only doubled it because of the Gold edition and even thats not triple.

Then theres the fact that after the original GT no GT game has sold over 2 million. With GT4 selling only 1.2 million. GT5P less than 0.6 million.

Then about how theyd sold 20 million PS1's and PS2's compared to the less than 6 million PS3's.

How GT has never been as popular as FF, the fact that the best selling PS3 game in Japan is 1.86 and then after that two  games that did around 800,000.

But then theres you who for thinks its magically gonna have 4x and more legs, its gonna outsell GT2,3 and 4 by a considerable amount depsite not even having a third of the userbase of the PS1 or 2, and that its gonna outsell a FF game by alot even though FF12 doubled GT4s sales.

Its just pure fanboyish what youre doing to be honest, whereas im just being very realisitic. Its not like 2.2 million even has a good chance at happening, like the amount it could reach if it had a miracle, its just impossible. Its as likely to happen as Little Big Planet 2 selling 10 million copies worldwide.

And whats even worse you made a prediction itd open to 0.8 million, i made a prediction of 0.5 million and then Vgchartz report comes out and they say its expected to open to 0.5-0.55 million. I was 100% spot on and you were way off and youre still thinking trying to fault my way of thinking even though i was exactly right, after that you should be taking everything i say into serious consideration.



Jay520 on 22 November 2010
Ginyu said:

Its just pure fanboyish what youre doing to be honest, whereas im just being very realisitic. Its not like 2.2 million even has a good chance at happening, like the amount it could reach if it had a mircale, its just impossible. Its as likely to happen as Little Big Planet 2 selling 10 million copies worldwide.


It's not fanboyism, just poor predicting skills.



Monges79 on 22 November 2010

I think that people that think that GT5 will be the best selling in the franchise are forgetting something. How do you expect it to outsell all of the others when the install base of the PS3 is one third of the PS2? If you want a prime example look at FF13. Did it sell poorly? No. Did it come close to some of the FF on the PS2? Not even close. Not to mention that the 360 sold it also. They are selling FF13 for $20 this weekend, and I still doubt it will sell that many. I think that many will be surprised at the under-stellar sales that GT5 will receive.



Blue3 on 22 November 2010
Ginyu said:
Blue3 said:
Michael-5 said:

This won't lead to a ban..

Settle down you two.


Why would it, other then your insinuations no one has a problem.  You two can't stand some one calling you out on your BS can you. 

He is your buddy, maybe expalin to him how to use numbers not just cherry pick. 

This just doesnt make any sense to me, i mentioned how its preorders are 500,000. GT2 and GT4 didnt double its opening. Most big PS3 games like FF13, Yakuza,  MGS dont even double their opening. RE5 only doubled it because of the Gold edition and even thats not triple.

 

More cherry picking.  I wont even give you the benefit of a full replay, your post are not worth it. 

So ill do what you do. 

GT1 -  First week x 3.7 = final sales

GT3 - First week x 3.3 = final sales



Blue3 on 22 November 2010
Monges79 said:

I think that people that think that GT5 will be the best selling in the franchise are forgetting something. How do you expect it to outsell all of the others when the install base of the PS3 is one third of the PS2?

If you want a prime example look at FF13. Did it sell poorly? No. Did it come close to some of the FF on the PS2? Not even close. Not to mention that the 360 sold it also. They are selling FF13 for $20 this weekend, and I still doubt it will sell that many. I think that many will be surprised at the under-stellar sales that GT5 will receive.


You do know GT3 was no longer on sales when PS2 was crossing 80 million, its succesor was released. 

FFX sold on a smaller user base then FF12 yet out sold it.