Ginyu said:
So ?
So obviously you are missing the obvious, an opening of lets be optimistic and say opens to 550,000, itd need a 4x multiplyer to get to 2.2 million.
Even the original Gran Turismo didnt have a multiplyer that high, 3.77.
The multiplyer for GT2 and GT4 was less than 2. GT3's multiplyer was 3.35.
But GT5 a sequel on a PS3 where a big name sequel is lucky to even double its opening week, is gonna have a 4 plus multiplyer....more than even the original GT. Well.....thats obviously not gonna happen.
So if GT5 opens to 550,000 and has the same legs as GT4 and the usual game in Japan it will be lucky to hit 1 million.
So ?
Back then FF was a premier game in a rpg dominated market, it in every way should have out sold GT. But FF13 is far from great. Would be no surprise to see GT out sale FF this gen given the unfortunete fall from grace FF has gone through.
Yes, yes it would be a surprise the FF13 which has "fallen from grace" outsold GT4's lifetime sales in its first week, and has also sold as much as GT3. The second best selling GT game. FF12 was where it felt from grace. GT5 wont sell close to what FF13 sold in its first week.
Quite safe. GT5 will be the game to get for PS3 buyers year or two down the line, no racer will challange that. FF13 became a afterthough not long after release.
You are also forgetting that they have sold over 21 million PS1 and over 23 million PS2s in Japan compared to the measly 5.8 million PS3. Theyve been selling 1-2 million PS3s in Japan a year so by 2012 they probably wont have even sold 10 million PS3's.
But GT5 is gonna sell 2.2 million? less than 1 in 5 PS3 users are gonna own GT5 when more than 10 in 1 Japanese PS2 owners owned GT3 & 4?
Lowest Japan sellin GT is 1.26 highest is 2.55
Average(all 4) is 1.855
First of a gen GTs sales in Japan are 1.86 and 2.55 - average 2.2m
Thats how you got your estimate? i hope not, firstly GT sold 2.55 million yes but it was the first game, the second dropped considerabley, the third did a bit better because like FFX and MGS2 it came out really early in the PS2 life when not much was available which is why GT4 dropped so much.
Without GT1 the average is only 1.6, and its not even selling that. With preorders of just 260,000 and a estimate of 500,000-550,000 it is never hitting 2 million.
You posted no evidence, you just cherry picked numbers that best support your view.
If anything unbiased evidence aka math points to final number being closer to 2m then 1m.
As opposed to you who thinks its gonna have 4 times legs, double what GT4 had, and its gonna outsell FF13 though its never been as popular as FF, and its gonna have a attach rate of less than 1 in 5 whereas GT3 had a attach rate of 1 in 12.
You already predicted 800,000 when its gonna be 500,000 which is about 65% of the 800,000 so if the total was 65% of your LTD estimate thatd be 1.4 million. Its not hitting that either but its at least somewhat realistic.
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