Seece said:PS Move is on a roll right now, it's obvious this is going to be the slower burner many predicted.How many by end of year?

>>

The first few weeks of any new console peripheral should be its best weeks.  What are we talking about here? We're talking about about any console that has a established userbase as any of the three do.. Sony has the smallest this time, but what we should be looking at is percentages. Looking they are 3rd place in game sales and console sales one can only say Move will help a bit, but you can't expect anything miraculous.  I think it maybe slightly boosting sales from casual gamers who have not owned a console yet..I dont expect Kinect to be alot better sales-wise then Move, but looking at game and console sales it should do alittle better..

Something I touched on above, the vast majority of the people in this world still dont own a gaming console.. so even though it'll probably be minute (small) Kinect and Move will convince a small number of people do buy consoles.. It also happens when big titles like Halo Reach come out, which doubled console sales in the UK, but these effects can only be seen for weeks typically.. I dont think Move will do more then 5 million LIFETIME.

And when I say lifetime, Im going on the talk that Sony is trying to release their next console a bit before MS this time as rumors have it they are indeed burning the midnight oil trying to get this to happen.. I think this Gen will be officially phased out in 2 yrs (nearing 3 ) tops.. and gimmicks like Move and Kinect are little things to help increase the life of these consoles.. Anyone honestly knows the hardware of both systems is greatly outdated as CPU and GPU advancements happen much faster now then 10 yrs ago when the PS2 came out..

That's why the new Wii will be so epic

Or any eighth gen console for that matter (look-no bias here!)

The first few weeks of a peripheral's release won't reflect its best weeks if there aren't any compelling titles that sell it during the launch. Not even close.

It will take either a killer app that requires Move, or a game with supplemental Move controls that make the gaming experience significantly better than traditional controls to really sell the peripheral.

Move sales should reflect this. When a solid game worth buying an extra controller is released, expect sales to shift appropriately. Beyond that, sales will simply demonstrate a consistent slow burn effect that will only drop if overall support drops beforehand.

I think a Periferial's success hinges on it's first couple of weeks. Just like a game it needs a big opening to have long legs. The Sega CD had some apsolutly stellar games that should have been killer aps but they all came too late. The lack of those killer apps when the Sega CD launched religated it to failure before those games arrived. They couldn't save the day becuase they arived post mortum. People could get great games for the Genesis without the Sega CD so they didn't need it. The Move looks to be in the same boat. It's launch line up is nothing to write home about and it's not making the splash that SOny hoped it would. Unless something unpresidented happens I don't see how Move can become the success Sony was hoping it would be.

I'm going to say 2.5 - 3 Million. It'll pass 1.0 - 1.1 Mill in NA. 1.3 - 1.4 Mill in EMEAA. Japan should have around 400 - 600 k.

3m (or more) seems a bit off considering this is what MS has optimistically projected for Kinect.

MS has been burning through cash promoting Kinect in the interest of convincing the public that it is an experience unlike any other in gaming, while SCE really hasn't done much outside of their Kevin Butler Move commercials.

If you think it will match Kinect sales, you essentially believe that either SCE goes Large with their Move marketing efforts come the holiday season (and that this marketing blitz effectively sells the public on Move), or that they will match sales of Kinect simply based on word of mouth, which is incredibly unlikely.

And while I'd like to see the production/shipping numbers for Move peripherals as well as the official SCE projections for sales over the holidays before declaring "flop" or "hit" numbers, I think anything over 2m should be considered a pretty decent success considering that the real benefits of Move in software won't even be seen until next year.

Move is essentially relying upon casual fare (I'll be generous here and leave out any references to "shovelware") supplemental add-on control schemes for old games (like RE5 and HR) and future "potential."

I'll be frank in saying that Move currently doesn't have a real "killer app" that makes it a must buy add-on. I honestly think it's currently selling as a curiosity for PS3 owners who are banking on future Move dependent titles being worth the added cost.

Just a question...

What does the 2 Mil, 3 Mil exactly mean?

2 Mil Starter Kits? 2 Mil Sports Champions? 2 Mil Individual Move Controllers sold? Fuck it's hard to track this...

I'm gonna wait until Move releases in Japan and see how the reception and numbers show over there.

Over 9.000