3m (or more) seems a bit off considering this is what MS has optimistically projected for Kinect.
MS has been burning through cash promoting Kinect in the interest of convincing the public that it is an experience unlike any other in gaming, while SCE really hasn't done much outside of their Kevin Butler Move commercials.
If you think it will match Kinect sales, you essentially believe that either SCE goes Large with their Move marketing efforts come the holiday season (and that this marketing blitz effectively sells the public on Move), or that they will match sales of Kinect simply based on word of mouth, which is incredibly unlikely.
And while I'd like to see the production/shipping numbers for Move peripherals as well as the official SCE projections for sales over the holidays before declaring "flop" or "hit" numbers, I think anything over 2m should be considered a pretty decent success considering that the real benefits of Move in software won't even be seen until next year.
Move is essentially relying upon casual fare (I'll be generous here and leave out any references to "shovelware") supplemental add-on control schemes for old games (like RE5 and HR) and future "potential."
I'll be frank in saying that Move currently doesn't have a real "killer app" that makes it a must buy add-on. I honestly think it's currently selling as a curiosity for PS3 owners who are banking on future Move dependent titles being worth the added cost.
