Plus, the Wii doesn't explode a month after the warranty expires, causing you to buy another one.  I don't know anybody that only owned one PS1 or PS2.

It's still too early to say whether or not Wii will outsell PS2. It could still do it, but a few key things need to happen IMO:

One is the Vitality Sensor and its flagship title will HAVE to be a major success, like Wii Fit esque or close to it.With Nintendo's track record this gen though (with the exception of Wii Music), it's likely they will pull this off. I think there is a HUGE untapped market out there for a stress releasing video game.

Second, Nintendo needs to maintain a streamlined release of games spread out throughout the next couple of years, with a slightly greater concentration during the holiday, particularly more motion plus games, to keep people interested. This year's holiday lineup is good, but they simply cannot weather another 9 month dry period like this year. While games like Galaxy 2, Monster Hunter Tri, and Metroid Other M are great core titles, they are not hardware movers. Nintendo needs a balanced attack of core and expanded audience titles next year.

The third one is quite simple; Nintendo has to ride out the Wii until at least 2012, because if they release another console before then, Wii's sales will be cut off prematurely when it's still going relatively strong. You just can't rush out another console in 2011 and expect Wii sales to go keep chugging and reach PS2 when Nintendo has suddenly made it an obsolete console.

So yeah, it won't be easy, but still possible. Remember, PS2 had the factor of people rebuying consoles for defects and/or slim models, not to mention almost universal backing of 3rd parties, while Wii has been almost universally shunned by third parties. So if Wii does inch past PS2, it'll be damn impressive, but unlikely.

Regardless, Wii will easilly outsell PS1, which is still an impressive feat coming off a predecesor that sold a mere 22 million. 100 million minimum is essentially a given at this point. Even if it sells a dismal 10 million next year and drops off to 5 million the next year, it'll STILL inch its way past 100 million.

Yeah, I analyze this stuff way too much, but that's what happens when you don't have a job and have 3 days a week of school :P

Plus, the Wii doesn't explode a month after the warranty expires, causing you to buy another one.  I don't know anybody that only owned one PS1 or PS2.

Plus, the Wii doesn't explode a month after the warranty expires, causing you to buy another one.  I don't know anybody that only owned one PS1 or PS2.

1) Software sells systems, if you're not getting software that is compelling to the market, excitement for your console wanes. Now, fortunately Wii has got a big batch of software coming up for the holidays which should give Wii a recovery but looking at the bigger picture, let's face it, nothing is going to change. Wii has already had two major software droughts (latter half of 2008 - most of 2009, and almost all of 2010) and does anyone honestly think that 2011 will be different? So far for 2011 we only know of one significant title for sure, Zelda, and given the last two years we have no reason to think there'll be much beyond that. Third parties aren't suddenly going to change, and Nintendo themselves are now divided over three platforms. With a third year of drought, barely anyone is gonna still be excited about the console.

2) Wii may still be tracking well ahead of PS2, and might thus be expected to be able to outlast it on that basis, except for one slight issue. In the late lifetime of PS2, it wasn't making the bulk of it's sales in the traditional markets like Wii has. This is Sony's biggest advantage in the games console business, they have a strong marketing and distribution presence in regions where Nintendo is not even officially selling consoles. PS2 sold over 20 million in "Other Europe" and "Others" in it's late years which appears to be an impossibility for Wii.

1) Software sells systems, if you're not getting software that is compelling to the market, excitement for your console wanes. Yes. Now, fortunately Wii has got a big batch of software coming up for the holidays which should give Wii a recovery but looking at the bigger picture, let's face it, nothing is going to change. Wii has already had two major software droughts (latter half of 2008 - most of 2009, and almost all of 2010) and does anyone honestly think that 2011 will be different? And despite those "droughts", they still sold more than the competition. So far for 2011 we only know of one significant title for sure, Zelda, and given the last two years we have no reason to think there'll be much beyond that. Of course you saw the New Kirby, New Donkey Kong, et cetera coming. I think it's silly to assume that Nintendo would just STOP developing games. Third parties aren't suddenly going to change, and Nintendo themselves are now divided over three platforms.Third parties are one of the reasons the Wii has sold so much. Just because it's a game that you don't like, doesn't mean it's a bad game overall. People OBVIOUSLY enjoyed Carnival Games, Just Dance, et cetera. Devs are selling games that people want. With a third year of drought, barely anyone is gonna still be excited about the console. /sigh Again, Zelda-alone is enough for my own excitement and we still know nothing. I'm not worrying about next year now. It's 2010, not 2011. I care about games coming out now.

2) Wii may still be tracking well ahead of PS2, and might thus be expected to be able to outlast it on that basis, except for one slight issue. In the late lifetime of PS2, it wasn't making the bulk of it's sales in the traditional markets like Wii has.People who bought a PS2 probably purchased a Wii this gen. I think it's silly to make that the Wii's overall market and the PS2's overall market are different. This is Sony's biggest advantage in the games console business, they have a strong marketing and distribution presence in regions where Nintendo is not even officially selling consoles. PS2 sold over 20 million in "Other Europe" and "Others" in it's late years which appears to be an impossibility for Wii. Again, Wii has been out for 4 years with 28 million sales in Europe, PS2 has been out for 10 years with 48 million sales. So you're saying it's impossible for the Wii to get ~20 millions sales in 6 years? =/