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Yeah, it won't outsell PS2 overall.  And yeah, most of the reasons for that are already pretty well explained in the thread (less diversity in content, no redesign, shorter lifecycle, core gamer/media revolt, fewer markets, etc).  I do think Wii might outsell PS2 in the US eventually though, and it's top 10 software sales will likely go forever unmatched (even DS can't keep up there).  It should come in around 120m or so when it's done though, so 3rd or 4th place (behind DS/PS2, around GB, ahead of PS1) overall.