2010. Gran Turismo is coming out this year.

I don't know what year, but I'm going with everyone whose saying whenever it drops to $199.

I feel it's unlikely for 2011 to be the peak year for PS3. If you follow the trend in sales, PS3 sales are already curving down, it's hit it's natural peak in about 2009, and the Slim boosted the PS3 to really make the peak up there.

A second Slim model is possible, but the purpose of a Slim model is to re-energize sales. The current Slim PS3 was launched during PS3's natural peak (following PSP sales curves which PS3 basically mimics), if a futre PS3 redesign is launched, it will simply extend the life of the console.

As for price drops, they boost sales, but not as significantly as redesigned consoles.

Sony anticipated the PS3 to replace the PS2, they expected significantly more sales, and they didn't get it. They had to remove backward compatibility for PS3 in order to promote PS3 game purchases because back in 2008, PS3 software revenues were very very low.

As for Gran Turismo 5, thats the last game sony has to offer that hasn't seen a PS3 interation. After that, the PS3 has less to offer (as in new games) as it used to. There are no more new IP's which we have known about for 5 years that Sony has still to make. Yes I'm aware of The Last Guardian, and Twisted Metal, but those types of games only sell about a million copies, they wont budge the market at all.

Also GT5 won't boost console sales significantly, and it won't boost console sales for a period longer then a month.

Anyway, it's a matter of opinion. I just bais my opinion off trends. PS3 sales are declining already, PS3 sales follow PSP trends very closely, and there is already talk of successor consoles. In the history of gaming, no console has experienced peak sales beyond it's half life, and if new consoles come by 2013, and PS3 sells until 2015, that would mean that this is the last full year Sony has before it reaches it's half-life.

Unless GT5 comes with a PS3 bundle, and PS3 drops its price to $200 THIS FALL, I don't see the PS3 selling any better year on year over 2009 in the future. You can hold this against me if you like, but please come back to me in a couple years.

The moment it hits 199...at the end of 2011, maybe? I expect 2012 to be the consoles best year.

I voted 2011 because software sells the hardware and if Sony plays it's cards right by price cutting to $249.99 or below by June/July, then they will see a synergy of a hardware spike due to the software and a more affordable entry price.

Inflation at 50% over 8 years? Get out of town. What is this the late 70's? Average inflation since 2002 is about 2.5%(2.44%). The biggest year was 3.8% and last year was actually a year of deflation by -.34%. This year inflation is 2% as of the end of July. Only 2005, 2006, and 2008 had an inflation rate of greater than 3% since 2002. A $200 price tag then should run about $240 -$245 in terms of today's dollars. At this rate it wouldn't be until about 2020 that the old $200 price point would be $300. And by then we'll be well beyond this generation of consoles. I'm sure you were exaggerating a little with them being equal but I think you stretched it a little too far to help prove your point this time. 

I do agree with you that the 70% thing is bull though, as there is too many other factors that can effect what price point sees the most sales(i.e. the time factors you stated). I also agree that the PS3 wont be $200 next year but may see a $249 price point. Which would actually be the 2002 $200 price point for today's dollar.

Probably this year.  By the time it gets down to $199 (late 2011/2012), it'll probably be going against a feature comparable Wii 2 @ $249 and 360's lower tier model might even be at $99-149.  After this year, it's biggest exclusive (or timed/region exclusive) franchise releases (MGS4, FFXIII, GT5, etc) will all probably be behind it too.

Probably this year but possibly a slim outside chance of 2011 if it goes to $250 in the first half of next year and we don't have supply problems like we did for the first half of this year. Either way it probably won't be down by a whole lot next year if it does in fact get a $50 cut. And if it's a $50 but also a €100 cut than it almost certainly will be up.

I think its probably this year 2010.

Ultimately the one factor most people seem happy to ignore is that this gen has already sold to 150 million people.

Even with growth there are only a finite number of people left to sell to.

I reckon the market left for new console sales is approx 70 million.

This has to be divided up between all manufacturers.

If Nintendo stay on course they will take about 33 million of these consumers leaving the HD Twins to fight over the remainder.

Sales are roughly split between the two and with probably 18 months left to run this gen I reckon that this next year will be the start of the decline for all three manufacturers.

Peak year is this year IMHO.

Either happened last year, or happening this year. I'm leaning towards 09 though.