CGI-Quality said:
Michael-5 said:
Why does 2009 seem highly unlikely? Just because most people voted for 2011, doesn't make it so. 2009 introduced the Slim model, it boosted sales, and it's highly unlikely that 2010 sales will be as high as 2009. Yes a price cut to $200 will push consoles, but i beleive the Slim effect will have been stronger. Popular vote means noting, do you ever pay attention to the "Most Wanted" Section of VGChartz? This website is largly composed of Nintendo fans or Sony fans, to the point where a niche game like Tales of Grace is more wanted then Halo Reach. Popular vote means nothing when the large portion of voters are Sony fans (some of which are hardcore fanboys).
PS3 sales mimic PSP sales if you allign launch dates, and look at PSP sales now. Despite the PSP being priced down to $130 in the states, and a variety of great titles being released, it's sales have plumited.
I bet in 2009 PSP fans and DS fans thought that their respective consoles could still have a peak year in the future, but they didn't.
The fact of the matter is that, as it looks right now, 2009 was Sony's peak year, and in 2010 their year end sales will most likely be lower. Sony's PS3's peak popularity is over, it's over the hill, and it's very rare to see a console rise again.
I mean look at PS2, it's peak year was 2002, only 2 years after launch in Japan, and just 1 year after launch everywhere else. It had a jump in 2005 to 90% of peak year sales, but genrally after 2002, sales slowly declined, and in 2007 sales were 50% of peak sales. This is what is most likely to happen to the PS3, just on a shorter interval (PS2 will have a much longer tail, saleswise)
Sony has released a new game with all of their IP's and now it's simply making sequels, hype will fall for PS3, and in 2012 people are going to start looking for a new console. Sony wouldn't even consider releasing a PS4 if PS3 was selling super well in 2011.
PSP had it's peak year in 2008, and now in 2010 sales are about half of what they used to be. Since the PS3 has followed the PSP sales curve for the last 4 years very accuratly, it's probably going to do the same. So 2012 PS3 should only sell 6 million consoles worldwide.
I mean think about it, do you honestly beleive the PS3 will have it's peak year, 5 years after the launch of the console? No console has ever done that before, sales do not build up that slowly, and even with a price cut, it's just not going to be able to keep sales up.
Sony estimated that the PS3's lifespan would be 10 years, it didn't sell as well as expected so now it's planned to have an 8 year life. If you follow sales data, that would imply a peak year in terms of sales in about 3 years (since all consoles have their peaks before mid-life). This is what happened, Sony released the PS3 Slim during it's peak season, and that made a huge spike in sales. However now PS3, 360, and Wii are all on declining sales (after the 360 Slim effect wares off), and all a price cut can do is keep sales on par for an extra year. I mean will the Wii see another 24 million sold year just because the price drops to $130 (Same % reduction in PS3's price drop)? If sales do jump, don't you think MS and Sony will also make price drops to balance things out?
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I didn't say the majority vote is correct, I said if certain pieces fall into place, the majority vote may end up correct. Why would 2010 be the peak year? Who's to say a slimmer model is out of the question? What about a price drop to $249, or $199? When was the PS3's life cut to just 8 years? Have you also forgotten Gran Turismo 5?
Many factors challenge your prediction.
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I feel it's unlikely for 2011 to be the peak year for PS3. If you follow the trend in sales, PS3 sales are already curving down, it's hit it's natural peak in about 2009, and the Slim boosted the PS3 to really make the peak up there.
A second Slim model is possible, but the purpose of a Slim model is to re-energize sales. The current Slim PS3 was launched during PS3's natural peak (following PSP sales curves which PS3 basically mimics), if a futre PS3 redesign is launched, it will simply extend the life of the console.
As for price drops, they boost sales, but not as significantly as redesigned consoles.
Sony anticipated the PS3 to replace the PS2, they expected significantly more sales, and they didn't get it. They had to remove backward compatibility for PS3 in order to promote PS3 game purchases because back in 2008, PS3 software revenues were very very low.
As for Gran Turismo 5, thats the last game sony has to offer that hasn't seen a PS3 interation. After that, the PS3 has less to offer (as in new games) as it used to. There are no more new IP's which we have known about for 5 years that Sony has still to make. Yes I'm aware of The Last Guardian, and Twisted Metal, but those types of games only sell about a million copies, they wont budge the market at all.
Also GT5 won't boost console sales significantly, and it won't boost console sales for a period longer then a month.
Anyway, it's a matter of opinion. I just bais my opinion off trends. PS3 sales are declining already, PS3 sales follow PSP trends very closely, and there is already talk of successor consoles. In the history of gaming, no console has experienced peak sales beyond it's half life, and if new consoles come by 2013, and PS3 sells until 2015, that would mean that this is the last full year Sony has before it reaches it's half-life.
Unless GT5 comes with a PS3 bundle, and PS3 drops its price to $200 THIS FALL, I don't see the PS3 selling any better year on year over 2009 in the future. You can hold this against me if you like, but please come back to me in a couple years.
