jarrod on 08 September 2010
Probably this year. By the time it gets down to $199 (late 2011/2012), it'll probably be going against a feature comparable Wii 2 @ $249 and 360's lower tier model might even be at $99-149. After this year, it's biggest exclusive (or timed/region exclusive) franchise releases (MGS4, FFXIII, GT5, etc) will all probably be behind it too.
