3,500,000? No... No...

 You're not seriously comparing a 2 million R&C by january prediction to half a billion lifetime sales of the Wii, are you? If so, that is n extremely strange and unreasonable measure to take. I think this is Mr.Stickball's point; he personally spends a lot of time and effort into making his predictions both likely and logical, while many others just follow blindly what has to be the most sensationalist claims ever brought to an online forum at any time, ever!

Clearly, there's a difference both between the Halo 3 prediction and the R&C prediction and the preposterous claims that would need God himself at the helm to succeed. I don't abolish Nintendo in any way, but it's strange that its most avid defenders and fans are turning into zealots with too little zest of their own to stand up for their brand, rather hiding behind what most see as a crazy mans rants.

This is not about mods being jealous, it's about certain users having too weak a personality and too poor debating skills, lending off of John Lucas' thunder. And it's easy to see if you have an open mind. 

This is kinda funny, I used that very argument in a discussion we had in another thread, about how it's near impossible to determine the exact demand for the Wii. You called me ignorant and brushed it off as nonsense that time, why is it valid now? Feel free to support any prediction, but stay consistent will you?

 There is no inconsistency, your argument was that it would experience a dropoff and that sales would suddenly drop and it would die out, sorry, but that is totally unsupported, the only question is how high the sales can go, that is where the numbers are hard to judge, we already know its higher than the PS2 due to the fact that its selling twice as fast, even with the supply constraints, but could it sell three, or even four or even more times faster if supply wasn't an issue, that is the question

Gnizmo said: hunter_alien said: johnlucas said: nordlead said: you people can't hang john lucas yet. It released the 1st, the sales data is only for the 1st. He still has 6 days left for 1 week to actually pass. He did state specifically that it was 1 real week, not 1 sales week. so it only needs to sell 3.5 million in 6 days That's right. Besides the prediction in full was about Wii Fit worldwide all 1st weeks combined. I simply specified Japan accounting for the staggered launch. Even if Japan fails on me the prediction is still on until Wii Fit releases in all territories. I'll only be eating a couple of black feathers instead of the whole bird. Prediction is still on. John Lucas Keep on dreaming ... it will never do as much as H3 did in the US in first week , and it deffinatly wont have a massive launch week in Others ... the game is IMO partially a flop ... only time will tell how much can its legs drag the game ... lets dont forget , it could be the next Nintendogs in the same time :) Can you justify that claim on any real level or are you just spouting more fanboy nonsense? How on earth did this game flop? It only sold 90% of the stock in two days. What a huge dissapontment! I am certain Nintendo regrets making so many of these units with that terrible sell rate! I guess you are just looking forward to the future. We all know these types of games are notorious for selling in quick bursts and then disappearing from the charts forever, especially in Japan. What would make it not a flop next week? Does it have to sell every last unit to be a success, or do you just want the Wii to fail?

 At this point a huge Nintendo 1st party game is considered to be successfull if , an only it selles over 500k IMO ... SMG was not a flop in the US , but than it was in Japan . Yes , I know that it can have legs , but in the same time it could have similar to MP3 , and thats not good IMO . When a gamelike Prof. Layton beats a monster like WiiFit in Japan , than you know that there is something wrong with the sales number .

On the other hand I never saied that it couldent be a smash hit in the US or Others , or it couldent be a hit later on in Japan , but as it stands now , WiiFit didnt do far as well as people expected ... 

 I mentioned this supply issue in regards to the belief that the Wii will somehow double, or even triple its sales in the next year and forwards. That was imo a just question; how do you (or Nintendo) know that the demand is of such a degree that they can in fact double or triple sales? That was what my initial puzzlement encased, but this was apparently a very silly notion of me to have, since I was "ignorant" for doubting that the demand actually was that high.

As for my belief that it will drop off and slow down (even grind to a halt); yes, I believe that still. The Wii is/was an explosion, erupting on the market like TNT, and these things have a way of dying down as casual consumers are a fiercely illoyal group that are easily swayed in other directions and quickly tire of trends. I see the Wii as more of a fashion accessory right now than its competitors, which is a good thing short term but rarely long term.

Gamers are a lot fewer as a demographic, but they are very aware and set aside much larger funds for gaming and entertainment (gamers tend to visit the cinema almost 400% more than "casuals" for instance) and they're a more dedicated and predictable group that leave room for longterm strategizing. They are also the sole reason the console industry has grown into the financial beast it is, so excluding gamers from your demographic with a games console with no other media capability seems like a strange strategy to me! 

Anyways; I know that neither of us are gonna convince the other, or convert if you will, we won't know anymore till the scales tilt heavily one way or the other longterm. I know it looks like the Wii will break all manner of records right now, but I firmly believe that the fluxing market of todays world and the ever sheepish and flinching casuals can cut Nintendo's tethers in the market a couple of years down the line. 

hunter_alien said: Gnizmo said: hunter_alien said: johnlucas said: nordlead said: you people can't hang john lucas yet. It released the 1st, the sales data is only for the 1st. He still has 6 days left for 1 week to actually pass. He did state specifically that it was 1 real week, not 1 sales week. so it only needs to sell 3.5 million in 6 days That's right. Besides the prediction in full was about Wii Fit worldwide all 1st weeks combined. I simply specified Japan accounting for the staggered launch. Even if Japan fails on me the prediction is still on until Wii Fit releases in all territories. I'll only be eating a couple of black feathers instead of the whole bird. Prediction is still on. John Lucas Keep on dreaming ... it will never do as much as H3 did in the US in first week , and it deffinatly wont have a massive launch week in Others ... the game is IMO partially a flop ... only time will tell how much can its legs drag the game ... lets dont forget , it could be the next Nintendogs in the same time :) Can you justify that claim on any real level or are you just spouting more fanboy nonsense? How on earth did this game flop? It only sold 90% of the stock in two days. What a huge dissapontment! I am certain Nintendo regrets making so many of these units with that terrible sell rate! I guess you are just looking forward to the future. We all know these types of games are notorious for selling in quick bursts and then disappearing from the charts forever, especially in Japan. What would make it not a flop next week? Does it have to sell every last unit to be a success, or do you just want the Wii to fail? At this point a huge Nintendo 1st party game is considered to be successfull if , an only it selles over 500k IMO ... SMG was not a flop in the US , but than it was in Japan . Yes , I know that it can have legs , but in the same time it could have similar to MP3 , and thats not good IMO . When a gamelike Prof. Layton beats a monster like WiiFit in Japan , than you know that there is something wrong with the sales number .   On the other hand I never saied that it couldent be a smash hit in the US or Others , or it couldent be a hit later on in Japan , but as it stands now , WiiFit didnt do far as well as people expected ...

You're a troll, but the worst part is that you're not even good at it.

You cannot magically redefine what a flop is to fit your fanboy preferences, being a Nintendo game doesn't set up this physical 500k barrier that must be broken. Saying that Wii Fit flopped when it almost sold through 90% in its first two days is simply moronic. It is not in your opinion, it's in your stupid-as-hell, barely-fit-to-be-called-an-opinion claim. And it will not be entertain. Be quiet.

And to pretend like getting outsold by Layton, which is a monster itself, is somehow a bad thing? Nice try, punk. Ans clinging to the idea that SMG was flop in Japan? Damn, you must be pretty desperate.

ClaudeLv250 said: hunter_alien said: Gnizmo said: hunter_alien said: johnlucas said: nordlead said: you people can't hang john lucas yet. It released the 1st, the sales data is only for the 1st. He still has 6 days left for 1 week to actually pass. He did state specifically that it was 1 real week, not 1 sales week. so it only needs to sell 3.5 million in 6 days That's right. Besides the prediction in full was about Wii Fit worldwide all 1st weeks combined. I simply specified Japan accounting for the staggered launch. Even if Japan fails on me the prediction is still on until Wii Fit releases in all territories. I'll only be eating a couple of black feathers instead of the whole bird. Prediction is still on. John Lucas Keep on dreaming ... it will never do as much as H3 did in the US in first week , and it deffinatly wont have a massive launch week in Others ... the game is IMO partially a flop ... only time will tell how much can its legs drag the game ... lets dont forget , it could be the next Nintendogs in the same time :) Can you justify that claim on any real level or are you just spouting more fanboy nonsense? How on earth did this game flop? It only sold 90% of the stock in two days. What a huge dissapontment! I am certain Nintendo regrets making so many of these units with that terrible sell rate! I guess you are just looking forward to the future. We all know these types of games are notorious for selling in quick bursts and then disappearing from the charts forever, especially in Japan. What would make it not a flop next week? Does it have to sell every last unit to be a success, or do you just want the Wii to fail? At this point a huge Nintendo 1st party game is considered to be successfull if , an only it selles over 500k IMO ... SMG was not a flop in the US , but than it was in Japan . Yes , I know that it can have legs , but in the same time it could have similar to MP3 , and thats not good IMO . When a gamelike Prof. Layton beats a monster like WiiFit in Japan , than you know that there is something wrong with the sales number .   On the other hand I never saied that it couldent be a smash hit in the US or Others , or it couldent be a hit later on in Japan , but as it stands now , WiiFit didnt do far as well as people expected ... You're a troll, but the worst part is that you're not even good at it. You cannot magically redefine what a flop is to fit your fanboy preferences, being a Nintendo game doesn't set up this physical 500k barrier that must be broken. Saying that Wii Fit flopped when it almost sold through 90% in its first two days is simply moronic. It is not in your opinion, it's in your stupid-as-hell, barely-fit-to-be-called-an-opinion claim. And it will not be entertain. Be quiet. And to pretend like getting outsold by Layton, which is a monster itself, is somehow a bad thing? Nice try, punk. Ans clinging to the idea that SMG was flop in Japan? Damn, you must be pretty desperate.

win

See I would buy a ticket in that situation.  Just because I'd think it'd be some sick twist of fate if i said that, bought a ticket to prove a point... and was proven wrong by winning the lottery.  Sure i'd have to eat some crow... but i'd have piles of cash to cheer me up.