Avinash_Tyagi on 07 December 2007
I mentioned this supply issue in regards to the belief that the Wii will somehow double, or even triple its sales in the next year and forwards. That was imo a just question; how do you (or Nintendo) know that the demand is of such a degree that they can in fact double or triple sales? That was what my initial puzzlement encased, but this was apparently a very silly notion of me to have, since I was "ignorant" for doubting that the demand actually was that high.
PS2's second year sales were only a little over 17 Million, Wii will get pretty much that this year even with the supply constraint, what evidence is there that it couldn't sell more if supply was there.
As for my belief that it will drop off and slow down (even grind to a halt); yes, I believe that still. The Wii is/was an explosion, erupting on the market like TNT, and these things have a way of dying down as casual consumers are a fiercely illoyal group that are easily swayed in other directions and quickly tire of trends. I see the Wii as more of a fashion accessory right now than its competitors, which is a good thing short term but rarely long term.
DS already shows that casuals continue to buy games, maybe not as often, but they don't abandon like you believe they do
Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)
