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Mummelmann on 07 December 2007
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Avinash_Tyagi said:
Mummelmann said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Well the problem with running numbers on the Wii is no one really knows the upper limits of its demand, since supply has never really been able to outstrip demand in all regions at once. You could argue based on supply, but do you really know whether Nintendo has reached the limits of production, in the long run all factors are variable, while 40 million next year may be out of reach due to supply constraints, saying 240 million is laughable in its lifetime is foolishness on Stickball's part as he can only guess at the maximum demand and supply for the Wii.

This is kinda funny, I used that very argument in a discussion we had in another thread, about how it's near impossible to determine the exact demand for the Wii. You called me ignorant and brushed it off as nonsense that time, why is it valid now? Feel free to support any prediction, but stay consistent will you?


There is no inconsistency, your argument was that it would experience a dropoff and that sales would suddenly drop and it would die out, sorry, but that is totally unsupported, the only question is how high the sales can go, that is where the numbers are hard to judge, we already know its higher than the PS2 due to the fact that its selling twice as fast, even with the supply constraints, but could it sell three, or even four or even more times faster if supply wasn't an issue, that is the question


 I mentioned this supply issue in regards to the belief that the Wii will somehow double, or even triple its sales in the next year and forwards. That was imo a just question; how do you (or Nintendo) know that the demand is of such a degree that they can in fact double or triple sales? That was what my initial puzzlement encased, but this was apparently a very silly notion of me to have, since I was "ignorant" for doubting that the demand actually was that high.

As for my belief that it will drop off and slow down (even grind to a halt); yes, I believe that still. The Wii is/was an explosion, erupting on the market like TNT, and these things have a way of dying down as casual consumers are a fiercely illoyal group that are easily swayed in other directions and quickly tire of trends. I see the Wii as more of a fashion accessory right now than its competitors, which is a good thing short term but rarely long term.

Gamers are a lot fewer as a demographic, but they are very aware and set aside much larger funds for gaming and entertainment (gamers tend to visit the cinema almost 400% more than "casuals" for instance) and they're a more dedicated and predictable group that leave room for longterm strategizing. They are also the sole reason the console industry has grown into the financial beast it is, so excluding gamers from your demographic with a games console with no other media capability seems like a strange strategy to me! 

Anyways; I know that neither of us are gonna convince the other, or convert if you will, we won't know anymore till the scales tilt heavily one way or the other longterm. I know it looks like the Wii will break all manner of records right now, but I firmly believe that the fluxing market of todays world and the ever sheepish and flinching casuals can cut Nintendo's tethers in the market a couple of years down the line.